Gabriel Cesa

OF FCL Braves
Age 20 R/R 5'10" / 166 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKATL152.164/.291/.188012-6—.104/.205/.119
202518ROKATL118.299/.414/.4231456—.198/.302/.287
202619ROKATL161.185/.333/.2230811—.129/.239/.151
2027PROJMLE20MLBATL271.185/.260/.2552548-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBATL46.191/.267/.2731155-0.2
Next 2 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk
Speed86
BB%46
Z-Con%25
K%20
Whiff%20
wRC+14
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%
CompsIsmael Alcantara (age 20) · Misael Urbina (age 20) · Neyfy Castillo (age 20)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 83 proj PA
wRC+†48
AVG/OBP/SLG.183 / .258 / .253
PA83
HR1
K%31
BB%8
ISO71
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.1 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.5 runs (Positional adjustment)-0POSREP: +1.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.3-0.22728
Tools · ContractCON 31 / POW 34
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT31
scouting grade only
POWER34
scouting grade only
EYE59
scouting grade only
SPEED55
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL Braves — 152128 21300 20453 125 164291188479 23250 3013 239 -6 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL Braves — 11897 29331 16233 44 299414423836 124378 1914 373 56 — — — — — —
202619 ROKFCL Braves — 161130 24120 24475 81 185333223556 38282 2915 273 11 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 152134 14200 14533 125 104205119325 15165 359 159 -6 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 118101 20221 12283 44 198302287589 89247 2410 251 56 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Braves — 161139 18110 15685 81 129239151390 22228 429 185 11 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 152134 14200 14533 125 104205119325 15171 359 159 -6 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL Braves — 152128 21300 20453 125 164291188479 23250 3013 239 -6 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 118101 20221 12283 44 198302287589 89260 2410 251 56 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWDSL Braves — 11897 29331 16233 44 299414423836 124378 1914 373 56 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Braves — 161139 18110 15685 81 129239151390 22247 429 185 11 — — — — — —
202619 ROK RAWFCL Braves — 161130 24120 24475 81 185333223556 38282 2915 273 11 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 152134 14200 14533 125 104205119325 15165 359 159 -6 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 118102 20221 12283 44 196302284586 88247 2410 251 56 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Braves — 161140 18110 15685 81 129239150389 21228 429 185 11 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 152134 14200 14533 125 104205119325 15165 359 159 -6 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL Braves — 118102 20221 12283 44 196302284586 88247 2410 251 56 — — — — — —
202619 ROK MLEFCL Braves — 161140 18110 15685 81 129239150389 21228 429 185 11 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEATL 0% 271244 45722 22833 51 185260255516 71267 318 239 48 -17 +1 +0 -2 +6 -0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEATL 34% 134120 23411 11402 31 191267273540 82270 308 249 55 -7 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.5
202821 MLB CTXATL 34% 4641 8101 4141 10 191267273540 82270 309 249 55 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 4641 8101 4141 10 195283293575 98269 309 249 29 -2 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.2
/ 162G— A+C — 650579 11314014 5719814 140 195283292575 97270 309 249 29 -35 +3 +0 -4 +14 -2.2
Career— MLE — 648569 891153 5921414 2911 156252209461 53241 339 211 29 -12 +1 +0 -1 +5 -0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650571 891153 5921514 2911 156252208460 53240 339 211 29 -37 +2 +0 -4 +14 -2.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Braves · 161 PAwOBA .271 → .185 (−86)K% 29.2% → 42.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.19%÷1.000×1.440——42.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.91%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9959.20%
HBP% /PA3.11%—×0.720—×0.9952.22%
Singles /BIP25.30%÷1.000×0.820×1.008×0.99520.82%
Doubles /BIP1.20%÷1.000×0.720×1.008×0.9950.87%
Triples /BIP2.41%÷1.000×0.720×1.008×0.9951.74%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.

Result: wOBA .271 → .185; ISO .038 → .025; BABIP .282 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Braves · 118 PAwOBA .368 → .251 (−117)K% 19.5% → 23.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA19.49%÷1.009×1.220——23.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.56%÷0.947×0.700—×0.9959.98%
HBP% /PA2.54%—×0.700—×0.9951.77%
Singles /BIP29.73%÷0.978×0.680×0.976×0.99520.07%
Doubles /BIP4.05%÷0.932×0.600×0.976×0.9952.54%
Triples /BIP4.05%÷1.045×0.600×0.976×0.9952.26%
Home runs /BIP1.35%÷0.878×0.470—×0.9950.72%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 109, K 102, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .368 → .251; ISO .124 → .073; BABIP .378 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Braves · 152 PAwOBA .235 → .159 (−76)K% 29.6% → 35.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.61%÷1.029×1.220——35.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.16%÷0.986×0.700—×1.0089.41%
HBP% /PA1.97%—×0.700—×1.0081.39%
Singles /BIP21.69%÷0.996×0.680×0.980×1.00814.62%
Doubles /BIP3.61%÷1.042×0.600×0.980×1.0082.05%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.600×0.980×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.871×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 108, 3B 130, K 106, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .235 → .159; ISO .023 → .013; BABIP .250 → .165. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).