Gabriel Cesa — OGILVIE

Gabriel CesaOF FCL Braves

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 166 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION141 act + 94 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†32

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .255 / .259

PA94

HR1

K%33

BB%9

BABIP264

ISO82

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE57

scouting grade only

SPEED57

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	152	135	15	2	0	0	13	61	3	12	5	111	205	126	331	15	200	40	9	161	-19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	152	128	21	3	0	0	20	45	3	12	5	164	291	188	479	23	250	30	13	239	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Braves	—	118	102	23	2	2	1	11	33	3	4	4	225	319	314	633	88	319	28	9	282	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Braves	—	118	97	29	3	3	1	16	23	3	4	4	299	414	423	836	124	378	19	14	373	144	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	ATL	—	141	124	16	1	1	0	12	60	3	7	1	129	223	153	376	24	242	43	9	179	-5	-17	+1	+0	-1	+4	-1.3
YTD	19	ROK	ATL	—	141	117	22	1	2	0	19	42	3	7	1	188	317	231	547	43	286	30	13	264	60	-6	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.2
ROS	19	ROK	ATL	0%	94	85	15	2	1	1	8	31	1	3	1	176	255	259	514	82	260	33	9	227	32	-7	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
ROS	19	MLB	ATL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		260	—	—	217	24	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	ATL	—	141	125	16	1	1	0	12	60	3	7	1	128	223	152	375	24	239	43	9	179	-5	-17	+1	+0	-1	+4	-1.3
TOT	19	ROK	ATL	—	235	209	31	3	2	1	20	91	4	10	2	148	236	196	432	48	252	39	9	198	10	-24	+1	+0	-1	+7	-1.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	ATL	34%	256	230	42	6	2	3	21	82	3	5	1	183	260	265	525	83	266	32	8	243	44	-16	+1	+0	-2	+7	-1.0
2028	21	MLB	ATL	48%	376	337	65	10	3	6	31	117	5	8	2	193	271	294	565	101	269	31	8	254	53	-20	+1	+0	-2	+11	-1.1
2027	20	MLB	ATL	34%	88	80	15	2	1	1	7	28	1	2	0	188	261	275	536	88	266	32	8	233	37	-6	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.4
2028	21	MLB	ATL	48%	182	162	31	5	1	3	15	56	3	4	1	191	272	290	562	99	269	31	8	244	45	-11	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	270	243	46	7	2	4	22	84	4	6	1	189	269	284	553	95	269	31	8	241	42	-18	+1	+0	-2	+8	-1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	585	111	17	5	10	53	202	10	14	2	190	269	287	557	97	269	31	8	241	42	-42	+2	+0	-4	+18	-2.6
Career	—			—	996	889	160	22	8	11	84	324	15	32	13	180	262	260	522	80	267	33	8	238	40	-67	+1	+0	-6	+28	-4.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	104	14	5	7	55	211	10	21	8	179	262	257	519	78	266	32	8	238	40	-44	+1	+0	-4	+18	-2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	152	128	21	3	0	0	20	45	3	12	5	164	291	188	479	23	250	30	13	239	41	-10	+0	—	—	+4	-0.6
2025	18	ROK	DSL Braves	—	118	97	29	3	3	1	16	23	3	4	4	299	414	423	836	124	378	19	14	373	144	+6	-1	—	—	+3	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	405	5	9	188	263	273	-2	+0	-1.5	-0.7
	/162	664	8	14	188	263	273	-4.0	+0.0	-2.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gabriel Cesa (OGILVIE)	19	20→25	30→35	52→57	57	148/236/196	48	252	1	10	39%	9%	10	-1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Wilfredo Lara 2023 · A	19	36→39	38→40	49→55	39	176/241/254	78	265	5	10	34%	6%	33	-2.9	183/258/278	95	267	8	13	32%	8%	47	-1.9	169/247/259	90	238	8	18	31%	8%	36	-1.4
✕Ariel Montesino 2015 · A	19	38	36→40	53→50	41	181/239/249	69	257	3	16	30%	6%	30	-3.1	196/247/255	59	259	3	9	24%	6%	35	-2.8	188/241/238	51	246	3	7	24%	6%	26	-1.2
✕Misael Urbina 2022 · A	20	36→29	40→45	51→50	48	177/255/271	94	227	7	13	24%	8%	44	-2.1	175/249/266	91	263	6	10	33%	8%	40	-2.4	157/237/236	79	247	5	10	36%	9%	25	-2.0
✕Ranfy Adon 2017 · A	19	36	39→45	49→50	41	180/246/264	84	259	7	12	32%	7%	39	-2.5	198/245/300	102	329	8	12	40%	5%	46	-2.0	173/231/277	105	327	9	25	47%	5%	33	-0.6
✕Gilbert Gomez 2011 · A	19	40→35	37→40	54→50	44	191/258/270	80	263	4	18	28%	7%	45	-2.1	201/265/282	81	295	5	9	31%	7%	50	-1.7	191/271/264	74	296	3	7	33%	9%	45	-1.3
✕Adalfi Almonte 2015 · A	19	39	40	48→50	46	190/275/287	97	268	7	12	30%	8%	58	-1.2	195/296/271	76	287	5	12	30%	10%	63	-0.9	169/295/221	52	258	3	14	31%	11%	49	-0.5
✕Jhonny Piron 2023 · A	19	36	40	47→55	45	179/264/268	89	265	9	11	34%	9%	48	-1.9	184/254/256	72	292	5	9	36%	7%	40	-2.4	122/192/154	32	205	0	12	37%	6%	-15	-1.4
✕Mishael Deson 2021 · A	19	41	36→30	49→55	44	196/249/263	68	261	3	15	25%	6%	38	-2.6	226/278/294	68	340	5	13	33%	6%	58	-1.2	235/289/284	49	365	5	15	35%	7%	58	-0.4
✕Franklin Correa 2015 · A	19	37	38→40	48→50	42	179/250/257	78	271	5	10	34%	8%	39	-2.5	184/236/265	81	290	6	7	36%	5%	33	-2.9	155/195/226	71	251	6	4	39%	3%	4	-1.2
✕Ignacio Valdez 2014 · A	19	38	36→45	49→50	39	180/242/249	69	280	3	11	35%	7%	32	-3.0	173/238/275	102	269	8	7	37%	7%	37	-2.6	141/208/262	122	210	12	5	38%	6%	20	-1.2
✕Felix Abreu 2017 · A	19	38	37→30	51→45	43	185/251/257	72	261	4	8	29%	7%	38	-2.6	202/259/264	62	276	3	8	26%	5%	43	-2.2	202/251/235	33	269	0	8	23%	4%	28	-1.1
✕Rafael Mejia 2017 · A	19	37	39→40	47→50	38	184/237/267	83	263	7	6	32%	5%	34	-2.8	198/237/320	122	278	14	7	33%	4%	49	-1.8	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	56	-0.3
✕Emmanuel Daniel 2011 · A	19	32	36→30	46→45	38	161/215/219	58	226	4	5	30%	5%	13	-4.3	190/245/255	65	261	4	7	28%	4%	35	-2.8	202/270/257	55	272	2	7	25%	4%	48	-0.6
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2018 · A	19	36	37→40	46→50	43	170/272/245	75	268	5	9	35%	8%	47	-1.9	177/263/273	96	284	8	9	38%	7%	50	-1.8	145/224/227	82	287	8	19	48%	6%	18	-1.3
✕Romer Cuadrado 2017 · A	19	38→37	39→40	45	41	185/253/265	81	284	6	8	35%	8%	41	-2.3	205/262/298	93	323	8	7	36%	6%	53	-1.5	201/257/294	93	313	8	5	36%	6%	47	-1.3
✕Javier Gutierrez 2010 · A	19	37	39→40	51→45	44	180/264/267	87	259	6	7	31%	8%	48	-1.9	203/282/290	87	282	6	7	28%	8%	61	-1.0	190/282/266	76	253	5	5	25%	10%	52	-0.5
✕Wander Valdez 2019 · A	19	40	39→40	49→45	43	195/255/286	91	271	5	7	29%	7%	46	-2.0	200/260/300	100	317	9	6	37%	7%	53	-1.5	164/232/258	94	290	11	5	45%	7%	28	-0.8
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	40	37→40	53→55	42	193/254/272	79	260	4	13	26%	6%	43	-2.2	199/267/282	83	276	6	17	28%	7%	52	-1.6	193/273/276	82	259	9	24	27%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Miguel Alfonzo 2007 · A	19	37	36→40	46→50	41	176/244/239	63	271	3	9	34%	7%	30	-3.1	198/270/274	76	314	6	10	36%	7%	52	-1.6	192/269/265	73	315	7	9	38%	7%	47	-0.9
✕Alfredo Balbuena 2018 · A	19	40	38→45	49→50	44	193/251/271	78	249	5	11	24%	6%	42	-2.3	205/261/304	99	258	7	13	22%	6%	54	-1.4	203/259/312	110	245	9	15	21%	6%	55	-0.5