Jean Robles — OGILVIE

Jean Robles P FCL Nationals

Age 19 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 148140vR 132

ERA6.04

FIP6.04

K%16.0%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%-2.3%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL2525

CMD3030

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	14	0	27	125	30	14	1	0%	2.0	16.3%	14.0%	2.3%	0.9%	3.95	4.00	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	14	0	27	125	30	14	1	0%	2.0	16.3%	14.0%	2.3%	0.9%	3.95	4.00	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	14	0	27	125	30	14	1	0%	2.0	24.0%	11.2%	12.8%	0.8%	3.95	2.92	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	11	42	191	45	26	3	92%	3.5	16.0%	17.0%	-1.0%	1.7%	5.31	4.83	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	12	11	42	191	45	26	3	92%	3.5	16.0%	17.0%	-1.0%	1.7%	5.31	4.83	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	12	11	42	191	45	26	3	92%	3.5	23.6%	13.6%	9.9%	1.6%	5.31	3.74	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	9	5	24	112	22	20	4	56%	2.7	13.4%	22.3%	-9.0%	5.0%	5.62	7.54	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	9	5	24	112	22	20	4	56%	2.7	13.4%	22.3%	-9.0%	5.0%	5.62	7.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	WSH	9	5	24	112	22	20	4	56%	2.7	19.6%	17.9%	1.8%	3.6%	5.62	5.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	WSH	8	8	40	169	29	27	5	100%	5.0	17.4%	16.2%	1.2%	2.8%	5.72	5.63	-0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	WSH	4	4	20	84	15	14	2	100%	5.0	17.4%	16.2%	1.2%	2.8%	5.72	5.63	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	20	83	14	13	2	100%	4.9	17.4%	16.2%	1.2%	2.8%	5.72	5.24	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	142	132	20	100%	5.1	17.4%	16.2%	1.2%	2.8%	5.72	5.24	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		35	16	94	428	66	75	10	46%	2.7	15.4%	17.5%	-2.1%	2.3%	5.00	5.30	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		75	34	200	914	141	160	21	46%	2.7	15.4%	17.5%	-2.1%	2.3%	5.00	5.30	-2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jean Robles (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.04	16.0%	18.4%	2.9%	—	5.63	17.4%	1.2%	40	-0.41	—	—	—
Luis Reyes R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	17	SP-	6.24	18.4%	20.7%	3.8%	.333	4.28	17.1%	5.1%	129	-1.96	4.02	167	87
Yosber Sanchez R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	18	SP-	5.58	14.6%	14.9%	3.3%	.315	4.61	20.2%	-5.2%	13	-0.97	3.21	199	87
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	86
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	85
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	85
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	85
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	85
Mason Denaburg R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	19	SP-	4.98	12.8%	17.3%	1.4%	.328	4.95	16.3%	-0.1%	39	-0.03	4.48	151	85
Miguel Ramirez R 2016 · 5.20 FIP	19	SP-	5.20	12.7%	18.9%	1.4%	.279	3.02	13.8%	8.7%	84	-2.18	2.40	126	84
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	84
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	84
Leomar Rosario R 2022 · 5.75 FIP	19	SW	5.75	15.4%	26.4%	1.1%	.282	5.24	19.6%	-2.4%	58	-0.51	4.95	134	84
Joseph Hernandez R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	18	SW	5.37	15.6%	15.0%	3.1%	.296	4.39	24.7%	8.0%	31	-0.98	4.39	260	83
Sandy Ozuna R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	17	SW	5.42	15.1%	17.4%	2.5%	.303	4.77	18.3%	7.9%	71	-0.65	3.03	103	83
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	83
Maiker Manuel R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	19	SP-	5.12	12.3%	15.2%	2.1%	.329	4.59	15.2%	6.7%	101	-0.53	4.56	148	83
Jose Pena Jr. R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP-	5.48	15.0%	18.7%	2.3%	.269	4.62	19.2%	3.1%	124	-0.86	3.48	176	83
Sven Schüller R 2015 · 5.92 FIP	19	SW	5.92	13.2%	23.4%	1.8%	.320	4.44	11.5%	0.8%	160	-1.48	3.88	247	83
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	20	SW	5.65	16.1%	19.2%	2.7%	.185	3.68	20.3%	9.9%	115	-1.97	3.39	163	83
Vitico Valdez R 2023 · 5.68 FIP	19	SW	5.68	11.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.260	4.04	14.7%	-2.5%	43	-1.64	4.04	132	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	16.9%	17.0%	1.11	5.83
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91