Carlos Carra

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 181 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1176ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Brewers 1	8	6	22	1.66	2.82	27.6%	16.3%	—	K 18.7% · BB 20.4% · FIP 4.10
2025	18	MIX2 levels	14	6	52	4.30	2.68	24.4%	5.3%	—	K 16.4% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.41
2026	19	AMIL	24	15	96	5.34	5.10	21.9%	14.4%	—	K 16.2% · BB 16.9% · FIP 6.40
2027PROJ	20	MLBMIL	—	—	0	5.97	5.97	15.0%	15.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBMIL	5	5	33	5.74	5.64	16.5%	13.5%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBMIL	8	8	49	5.43	5.28	18.0%	12.0%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control50Command45

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsNolberto Henriquez (age 21) · Danny Flatt (age 20) · Kolton Curtis (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 147138vR 130

ERA5.97

FIP5.97

K%15.0%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%-0.4%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$18M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	8	6	22	98	27	16	0	75%	2.7	18.7%	20.4%	-1.7%	0.0%	1.66	4.10	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	8	6	22	98	27	16	0	75%	2.7	18.7%	20.4%	-1.7%	0.0%	1.66	4.10	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	8	6	22	98	27	16	0	75%	2.7	27.6%	16.3%	11.2%	0.0%	1.66	2.82	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	52	225	55	12	4	43%	3.7	16.4%	7.6%	8.9%	3.2%	4.30	4.41	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	52	225	55	12	4	43%	3.7	16.4%	7.6%	8.9%	3.2%	4.30	4.41	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	6	52	225	55	12	4	43%	3.7	24.4%	5.3%	19.1%	1.8%	4.30	2.68	—
2026	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	24	15	96	425	93	61	15	62%	4.0	16.2%	16.9%	-0.7%	4.6%	5.34	6.40	—
2026	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	24	15	96	425	93	61	15	62%	4.0	16.2%	16.9%	-0.7%	4.6%	5.34	6.40	—
2026	19	A RAW	Wilson Warbirds	24	15	96	425	93	61	15	62%	4.0	21.9%	14.4%	7.5%	3.5%	5.34	5.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	MIL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.0%	15.4%	-0.4%	3.3%	5.97	5.97	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	67	284	47	38	9	100%	6.1	16.5%	13.5%	3.1%	3.2%	5.65	5.55	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	67	284	51	34	9	100%	6.1	18.0%	12.0%	6.1%	3.1%	5.34	5.19	+0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	67	284	54	31	9	100%	6.1	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	3.1%	5.09	4.96	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	67	284	56	29	9	100%	6.1	19.6%	10.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.81	+0.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	63	265	53	27	8	100%	6.3	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.0%	4.81	4.73	+0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	63	265	53	27	8	100%	6.3	20.2%	10.0%	10.2%	3.0%	4.75	4.71	+0.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	61	259	52	26	8	100%	6.1	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	3.1%	4.75	4.75	+0.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	59	248	50	25	8	100%	6.5	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.2%	4.80	4.83	+0.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIL	9	9	55	232	46	24	8	100%	6.1	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	3.3%	4.90	4.96	+0.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIL	8	8	50	212	41	23	8	100%	6.3	19.4%	10.8%	8.7%	3.5%	5.04	5.14	+0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	33	139	23	19	5	100%	6.6	16.5%	13.5%	3.1%	3.4%	5.74	5.64	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	49	207	37	25	7	100%	6.1	18.0%	12.0%	6.1%	3.3%	5.43	5.28	+0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	57	241	46	26	8	100%	6.3	19.0%	11.0%	8.0%	3.2%	5.17	5.04	+0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	60	253	50	26	8	100%	6.7	19.6%	10.4%	9.2%	3.2%	5.00	4.89	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	58	245	49	25	8	100%	6.4	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	3.2%	4.89	4.81	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	59	249	50	25	8	100%	6.6	20.2%	10.0%	10.2%	3.2%	4.83	4.79	+0.5
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	58	245	49	25	8	100%	6.4	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	3.2%	4.83	4.83	+0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	56	236	47	24	8	100%	6.2	20.0%	10.2%	9.8%	3.3%	4.89	4.92	+0.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	52	220	43	23	8	100%	6.5	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	3.5%	4.99	5.05	+0.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	48	203	39	22	8	100%	6.0	19.4%	10.8%	8.7%	3.7%	5.14	5.24	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	84	529	2232	433	239	74	100%	6.3	19.4%	10.7%	8.7%	3.3%	5.06	4.64	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	164	90	28	100%	6.3	19.4%	10.7%	8.7%	3.3%	5.06	4.64	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		46	27	170	748	124	109	27	59%	3.7	16.6%	14.6%	2.0%	3.6%	4.55	5.50	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	32	200	880	146	128	31	59%	3.7	16.6%	14.6%	2.0%	3.6%	4.55	5.50	+1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AWilson Warbirds · 96 IPFIP 5.01 → 6.40 (+1.39)K% 21.9% → 16.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.88%	—	×0.740	16.19%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.35%	—	×1.180	16.94%
HR / BF /BF	3.53%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.59%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 5.01 → 6.40, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Brewers · 41 IPFIP 3.03 → 4.41 (+1.38)K% 24.2% → 16.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.18%	—	×0.680	16.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.04%	—	×1.250	7.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.20%	÷0.971	×1.400	3.17%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 3.03 → 4.41, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACarolina Mudcats · 11 IPFIP 1.23 → 1.85 (+0.61)K% 25.6% → 18.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.58%	—	×0.740	18.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.33%	—	×1.180	2.74%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.214	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.23 → 1.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Brewers 1 · 22 IPFIP 2.84 → 4.10 (+1.26)K% 27.6% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.55%	—	×0.680	18.73%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	16.33%	—	×1.250	20.41%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.098	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.84 → 4.10, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Carra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.97	15.0%	15.4%	3.3%	—	5.23	17.8%	5.7%	202	-0.74	—	—	—
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	89
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	87
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	86
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	85
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	85
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	85
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	85
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	11.8%	14.6%	2.9%	.356	5.64	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.13	5.51	129	85
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	84
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	84
Moises Gomez R 2017 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	15.3%	13.8%	3.7%	.297	4.26	22.7%	12.1%	102	-1.32	3.23	258	83
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	83
Reese Olson R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	20	SP-	4.83	14.6%	13.0%	2.4%	.336	4.05	23.7%	13.2%	224	-0.78	3.03	640	83
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	82
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	82
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	82
Erik Manoah Jr. R 2015 · 5.67 FIP	19	SP-	5.67	12.9%	13.1%	3.7%	.269	5.64	14.5%	-0.3%	220	-0.03	3.47	322	82
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	82
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	82
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	62	18.8%	11.3%	1.23	5.11
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Scott Eyre ('09)	3.2	59	18.6%	11.5%	1.15	4.23
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*