Carlos Carra — OGILVIE

Carlos Carra P Wilson Warbirds

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 181 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.2 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.04

FIP5.04

K%16.7%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.6M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	8	6	22	98	27	16	0	75%	2.7	18.7%	20.4%	-1.7%	0.0%	1.66	4.10	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	8	6	22	98	27	16	0	75%	2.7	18.7%	20.4%	-1.7%	0.0%	1.66	4.10	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	8	6	22	98	27	16	0	75%	2.7	27.6%	16.3%	11.2%	0.0%	1.66	2.82	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	52	225	55	12	4	43%	3.7	16.4%	7.6%	8.9%	3.2%	4.30	4.41	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	6	52	225	55	12	4	43%	3.7	16.4%	7.6%	8.9%	3.2%	4.30	4.41	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	6	52	225	55	12	4	43%	3.7	24.4%	5.3%	19.1%	1.8%	4.30	2.68	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	24	15	96	425	93	61	15	62%	4.0	16.2%	16.9%	-0.7%	4.6%	5.34	6.40	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	24	15	96	425	93	61	15	62%	4.0	16.2%	16.9%	-0.7%	4.6%	5.34	6.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	MIL	24	15	96	425	93	61	15	62%	4.0	21.9%	14.4%	7.5%	3.5%	5.34	5.01	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	99	417	74	41	12	100%	6.6	17.8%	9.9%	7.9%	2.9%	4.88	4.83	+0.1
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	104	437	81	41	13	100%	6.5	18.5%	9.4%	9.0%	2.9%	4.75	4.69	+0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	109	459	90	41	13	100%	6.4	19.6%	8.9%	10.6%	2.8%	4.59	4.50	+0.5
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	113	477	97	41	13	100%	6.6	20.3%	8.6%	11.8%	2.8%	4.46	4.37	+0.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	116	489	102	41	13	100%	6.4	20.9%	8.4%	12.5%	2.7%	4.35	4.28	+0.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	117	494	105	41	13	100%	6.5	21.3%	8.2%	13.0%	2.7%	4.27	4.22	+0.9
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	117	494	106	41	13	100%	6.5	21.5%	8.2%	13.3%	2.7%	4.23	4.20	+1.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIL	18	18	115	487	104	40	13	100%	6.4	21.5%	8.3%	13.2%	2.8%	4.24	4.24	+0.9
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIL	17	17	112	472	101	40	14	100%	6.6	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	2.9%	4.29	4.32	+0.8
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIL	16	16	107	451	95	39	14	100%	6.7	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.45	+0.6
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIL	15	15	100	424	88	38	14	100%	6.7	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.2%	4.54	4.63	+0.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIL	14	14	94	395	80	37	14	100%	6.7	20.3%	9.3%	11.0%	3.4%	4.72	4.83	+0.1
2039	32	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	87	366	73	36	14	100%	6.7	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.7%	4.92	5.06	-0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	MIL	7	7	49	207	37	20	6	100%	7.0	17.8%	9.9%	7.9%	3.1%	4.96	4.91	+0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIL	12	12	76	321	59	30	10	100%	6.3	18.5%	9.4%	9.0%	3.0%	4.83	4.77	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	92	388	76	35	11	100%	6.6	19.6%	8.9%	10.6%	2.9%	4.67	4.58	+0.4
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	101	426	87	37	12	100%	6.7	20.3%	8.6%	11.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.45	+0.6
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	107	452	94	38	13	100%	6.7	20.9%	8.4%	12.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.36	+0.8
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	109	460	98	38	13	100%	6.4	21.3%	8.2%	13.0%	2.9%	4.34	4.29	+0.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	111	469	101	38	13	100%	6.5	21.5%	8.2%	13.3%	2.9%	4.30	4.27	+0.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIL	17	17	110	464	100	39	14	100%	6.5	21.5%	8.3%	13.2%	2.9%	4.32	4.32	+0.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIL	16	16	106	448	96	38	13	100%	6.6	21.3%	8.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.37	4.40	+0.7
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	101	426	90	37	14	100%	6.7	21.1%	8.7%	12.4%	3.2%	4.47	4.53	+0.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIL	15	15	95	401	83	36	14	100%	6.3	20.8%	9.0%	11.8%	3.4%	4.63	4.72	+0.3
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIL	14	14	89	376	76	35	14	100%	6.4	20.3%	9.3%	11.0%	3.6%	4.81	4.92	+0.1
2039	32	MLB CTX	MIL	13	13	82	346	69	34	13	100%	6.3	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.9%	5.02	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		188	188	1228	5186	1066	454	160	100%	6.5	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	3.1%	4.55	4.17	+10.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	174	74	26	100%	6.5	20.6%	8.8%	11.8%	3.1%	4.55	4.17	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		46	27	170	748	124	109	27	59%	3.7	16.6%	14.6%	2.0%	3.6%	4.55	5.50	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	32	200	880	146	128	31	59%	3.7	16.6%	14.6%	2.0%	3.6%	4.55	5.50	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Carra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.04	16.7%	10.6%	3.0%	—	4.67	18.6%	9.2%	311	-0.37	—	—	—
Donny Troconis R 2023 · 5.31 FIP	17	SP-	5.31	16.0%	9.4%	4.3%	.293	5.06	14.9%	2.2%	180	-0.25	3.15	224	85
Alejandro Manzano R 2022 · 4.89 FIP	20	SP-	4.89	14.8%	8.6%	3.5%	.347	4.81	15.6%	6.5%	199	-0.08	4.28	273	85
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	84
Mike Garcia R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	17	SP-	4.11	17.7%	10.6%	2.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	125	84
Anthony Escobar R 2019 · 4.44 FIP	18	SP-	4.44	15.1%	9.7%	2.5%	.263	5.33	14.2%	-3.5%	23	+0.89	3.07	122	84
Steven Fuentes R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	18	SP-	4.60	12.1%	10.1%	2.3%	.319	3.85	16.7%	10.2%	131	-0.75	2.38	359	83
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	83
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	83
Starlyn Castillo R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	19	SP-	4.17	16.4%	13.1%	1.5%	.271	4.76	15.3%	0.9%	117	+0.59	4.17	138	83
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	83
Joel Díaz R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	18	SP-	5.45	15.3%	11.9%	3.9%	.335	4.86	16.2%	8.2%	174	-0.59	1.98	328	83
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	82
Eric Prado R 2023 · 4.15 FIP	17	SP-	4.15	16.6%	11.5%	1.8%	.222	7.05	14.8%	-0.5%	90	+2.90	4.15	131	82
Xiomer Guacache R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	16.3%	10.5%	2.5%	.255	5.09	13.0%	0.3%	120	+0.67	4.42	186	82
Edward Escoboza R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	19	SP-	4.73	15.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.345	4.05	17.4%	9.9%	157	-0.68	3.44	213	82
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	82
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	82
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	82
Alexander Vizcaíno R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP-	5.40	11.8%	10.4%	3.6%	.321	4.82	17.3%	7.0%	220	-0.58	3.85	273	81
Luis Ojeda R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	12.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.344	5.39	12.1%	3.7%	92	+0.94	4.45	131	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	7.0	101	20.4%	8.8%	1.14	4.50
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98