Josh Swales
P
Visalia Rawhide
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119110vR 101
ERA4.41
FIP4.41
K%22.9%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP46
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 10 | 50 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 2.5 | 18.0% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 3.10 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 4 | 0 | 10 | 50 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0% | 2.5 | 18.0% | 12.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 3.10 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 18 | 13 | 63 | 300 | 48 | 37 | 7 | 72% | 3.5 | 11.8% | 14.6% | -2.7% | 2.7% | 7.14 | 5.43 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 18 | 13 | 63 | 300 | 48 | 37 | 7 | 72% | 3.5 | 16.0% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 7.14 | 4.78 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 49 | 0 | 66 | 309 | 63 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.1% | 13.7% | 1.3% | 3.8% | 6.99 | 5.63 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 49 | 0 | 66 | 309 | 63 | 36 | 9 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 6.99 | 4.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 13.4% | 3.0% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 44 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 44 | 0 | 47 | 197 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 46 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 42 | 0 | 44 | 188 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.33 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 35 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 36 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.4% | 14.0% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 118 | 0 | 124 | 522 | 122 | 48 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 3.97 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 197 | 78 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.4% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | 4.36 | 3.97 | +3.3 | ||
| Career | — | 71 | 13 | 139 | 659 | 91 | 92 | 20 | 18% | 2.0 | 13.8% | 14.0% | -0.2% | 3.0% | 6.88 | 5.35 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 102 | 19 | 200 | 950 | 131 | 133 | 28 | 18% | 2.0 | 13.8% | 14.0% | -0.2% | 3.0% | 6.88 | 5.35 | +0.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Josh Swales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.41 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 3.0% | — | 4.32 | 23.4% | 14.3% | 139 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 88 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 86 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 86 |
| Joshua Loeschorn R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 24.5% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .272 | 4.60 | 16.4% | 7.6% | 67 | +0.86 | 3.04 | 135 | 86 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .318 | 3.98 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 61 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 229 | 84 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.21 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.0% | .245 | 4.19 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 142 | 84 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 83 |
| Chris Jefferson R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.74 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .330 | 4.97 | 16.5% | 3.9% | 101 | +1.23 | 3.74 | 140 | 83 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 83 |
| Danny Hrbek R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.08 | 21.3% | 7.5% | 3.3% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 100 | 82 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.49 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .233 | 3.63 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.86 | 3.51 | 156 | 82 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 82 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2026 · 4.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.48 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.5% | .261 | 4.12 | 18.8% | 8.1% | 138 | -0.36 | 3.77 | 166 | 82 |
| Ben Vespi R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 1.5% | .370 | 4.79 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 39 | +1.53 | 3.26 | 102 | 82 |
| Kyle Martin R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 2.0% | .345 | 3.45 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 172 | -0.17 | 3.02 | 214 | 82 |
| Trey McLoughlin R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.89 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 3.2% | .295 | 4.73 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 95 | +0.84 | 3.78 | 217 | 82 |
| Breckin Williams R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.74 | 22.6% | 7.3% | 3.0% | .282 | 2.79 | 23.4% | 15.8% | 48 | -0.95 | 2.72 | 107 | 82 |
| Cole Ayers R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .298 | 5.00 | 15.2% | -0.4% | 32 | +1.14 | 3.52 | 171 | 81 |
| Alex Phillips R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.26 | 22.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | .263 | 4.49 | 23.2% | 14.6% | 72 | +1.23 | 3.26 | 139 | 81 |
| Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.31 | 23.4% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .262 | 6.15 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 128 | +2.84 | 3.31 | 207 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 46 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 1.18 | 4.37 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |