Andy Fabian — OGILVIE

Andy Fabian P FCL Orioles

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 23 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 127

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%24.5%

BB%15.7%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP23

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	10	9	37	159	45	15	2	90%	3.7	19.2%	11.8%	7.5%	1.8%	2.89	3.94	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	10	9	37	159	45	15	2	90%	3.7	19.2%	11.8%	7.5%	1.8%	2.89	3.94	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	10	9	37	159	45	15	2	90%	3.7	28.3%	9.4%	18.9%	1.3%	2.89	2.59	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	40	168	62	27	0	4%	1.5	26.4%	19.5%	6.9%	0.0%	1.59	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	40	168	62	27	0	4%	1.5	26.4%	19.5%	6.9%	0.0%	1.59	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	40	168	62	27	0	4%	1.5	36.9%	16.1%	20.8%	0.0%	1.59	2.02	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	0	13	61	14	10	0	0%	1.2	15.6%	20.5%	-4.9%	0.0%	6.39	4.38	—
YTD	23	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	0	13	61	14	10	0	0%	1.2	15.6%	20.5%	-4.9%	0.0%	6.39	4.38	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	BAL	11	0	13	61	14	10	0	0%	1.2	23.0%	16.4%	6.6%	0.0%	6.39	3.24	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	35	0	37	155	39	21	4	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.7%	11.3%	2.8%	4.72	4.62	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	15	0	16	68	17	9	2	0%	1.1	24.9%	13.7%	11.3%	2.8%	4.72	4.62	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	16	66	16	9	2	0%	1.0	24.9%	13.7%	11.3%	2.8%	4.72	4.24	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	115	26	0%	1.1	24.9%	13.7%	11.3%	2.8%	4.72	4.24	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		47	10	90	388	84	64	3	21%	1.9	21.8%	16.5%	5.3%	0.7%	2.81	3.75	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	22	200	865	188	143	6	21%	1.9	21.8%	16.5%	5.3%	0.7%	2.81	3.75	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andy Fabian (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	24.5%	15.7%	2.8%	—	4.62	24.9%	11.3%	37	-0.30	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	90
Seth Clark L 2023 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.287	5.23	18.4%	0.6%	82	+1.00	4.23	128	86
Andrew Walling L 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SU	4.20	23.7%	14.8%	2.2%	.272	3.90	22.0%	8.8%	105	-0.30	3.14	161	85
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	84
Fred Schlichtholz L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SU	4.23	22.5%	12.8%	2.6%	.368	4.13	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.10	3.49	175	81
Andrew Tomasovich L 2017 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.04	20.3%	6.9%	52	+0.05	3.87	126	81
Brian Marconi L 2021 · 3.89 FIP	24	SU	3.89	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.02	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.13	3.89	101	81
Nick Jones L 2022 · 4.21 FIP	23	SU	4.21	22.3%	17.9%	1.3%	.284	3.63	21.7%	12.0%	143	-0.58	1.32	201	80
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	80
Joe Filomeno L 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SU	4.02	24.0%	16.9%	1.5%	.244	5.97	15.2%	2.8%	37	+1.95	2.83	150	80
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	80
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	80
Jared Tobey L 2019 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	21.0%	12.1%	2.1%	.320	5.43	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.44	3.99	158	79
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	79
Zach Warren L 2019 · 3.79 FIP	23	SU	3.79	24.0%	17.0%	1.0%	.299	4.62	24.6%	4.2%	67	+0.83	2.84	184	79
Ben Harris L 2023 · 4.76 FIP	23	SU	4.76	25.4%	21.9%	1.9%	.252	5.32	22.4%	2.6%	76	+0.56	3.06	183	79
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	79
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	79
Joseph Menefee L 2023 · 4.50 FIP	23	SU	4.50	21.9%	18.5%	1.7%	.361	4.71	24.8%	6.0%	99	+0.21	3.22	146	79
Brandon Neeck L 2023 · 4.19 FIP	23	SU	4.19	21.0%	13.9%	2.0%	.419	4.27	22.8%	8.8%	171	+0.08	3.22	198	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	24.8%	14.5%	1.07	4.80
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41