Joey Broughton

P Wilson Warbirds

Age 21 LHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	20	MIX2 levels	20	12	60	5.85	4.77	21.1%	15.1%	—	K 15.3% · BB 18.1% · FIP 5.88
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIL	8	8	42	5.79	5.79	17.6%	16.8%	-0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIL	5	5	28	5.50	5.35	19.6%	14.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIL	8	8	43	5.18	5.01	20.8%	12.6%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsBryce Hubbart (age 22) · Brandon Herbold (age 19) · Adam Laskey (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%17.6%

BB%16.8%

K-BB%0.8%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	60	284	60	43	7	60%	3.0	15.3%	18.1%	-2.8%	3.2%	5.85	5.88	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	60	284	60	43	7	60%	3.0	15.3%	18.1%	-2.8%	3.2%	5.85	5.88	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	12	60	284	60	43	7	60%	3.0	21.1%	15.1%	6.0%	2.5%	5.85	4.77	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	8	8	42	177	31	30	5	100%	5.2	17.6%	16.8%	0.8%	3.0%	5.79	5.79	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	57	239	47	34	7	100%	5.2	19.6%	14.3%	5.3%	3.0%	5.42	5.27	-0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	59	248	52	31	7	100%	5.3	20.8%	12.6%	8.2%	2.9%	5.10	4.93	-0.0
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	60	255	55	29	7	100%	5.5	21.5%	11.5%	10.0%	2.9%	4.86	4.72	+0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	61	258	57	28	7	100%	6.1	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	2.9%	4.69	4.59	+0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	61	258	57	28	7	100%	6.1	22.1%	10.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.61	4.56	+0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIL	10	10	60	254	56	28	7	100%	6.0	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	2.9%	4.61	4.60	+0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	5	5	28	118	23	17	4	100%	5.6	19.6%	14.3%	5.3%	3.1%	5.50	5.35	-0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIL	8	8	43	182	38	23	6	100%	5.4	20.8%	12.6%	8.2%	3.1%	5.18	5.01	-0.0
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	50	211	45	24	6	100%	5.6	21.5%	11.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.94	4.80	+0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	54	228	50	25	7	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.8%	11.1%	3.0%	4.77	4.67	+0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	56	236	52	25	7	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.8%	11.4%	3.0%	4.69	4.64	+0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	56	236	52	26	7	100%	6.2	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	3.1%	4.69	4.68	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	286	1209	260	139	37	100%	5.7	21.5%	11.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.90	4.43	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	182	97	26	100%	5.7	21.5%	11.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.90	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		20	12	60	284	43	51	9	60%	3.0	15.3%	18.1%	-2.8%	3.2%	5.85	5.88	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	40	200	947	144	171	31	60%	3.0	15.3%	18.1%	-2.8%	3.2%	5.85	5.88	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joey Broughton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	17.6%	16.8%	3.0%	—	4.97	20.7%	7.9%	176	-0.82	—	—	—
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.28	17.9%	4.2%	149	-0.59	4.79	194	81
Brandon Herbold L 2024 · 6.27 FIP	19	SP-	6.27	17.2%	17.6%	4.3%	.296	5.06	19.8%	-3.9%	44	-1.21	3.72	105	80
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	80
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	80
Salvador Montano L 2015 · 5.23 FIP	21	SP-	5.23	11.5%	15.9%	2.0%	.301	4.65	21.3%	-0.0%	71	-0.58	4.44	116	79
Colby Langford L 2024 · 5.34 FIP	22	SW	5.34	21.6%	22.5%	2.2%	.273	6.01	22.2%	-1.1%	110	+0.67	4.92	168	79
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	78
Julio Robaina L 2022 · 5.55 FIP	21	SP-	5.55	17.4%	16.9%	3.2%	.347	4.04	18.2%	8.7%	178	-1.51	2.72	453	77
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	77
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	77
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	77
Felipe De La Cruz L 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SP-	4.65	21.7%	14.5%	2.8%	.387	3.82	21.5%	10.1%	278	-0.83	3.11	397	76
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	76
Esmerlin Vinicio L 2024 · 4.81 FIP	21	SW	4.81	16.2%	16.8%	1.7%	.261	4.29	19.5%	3.3%	113	-0.52	3.73	383	76
Luis Rico L 2015 · 4.61 FIP	21	SP-	4.61	17.2%	13.0%	2.4%	.303	5.03	17.8%	5.9%	105	+0.42	4.30	199	76
Luichi Casilla L 2024 · 4.62 FIP	19	SP-	4.62	22.4%	20.2%	1.6%	.372	2.62	25.7%	16.1%	34	-2.00	2.62	133	76
Holden Laws L 2021 · 6.35 FIP	21	SP-	6.35	19.3%	15.6%	5.3%	.306	4.71	17.5%	7.1%	133	-1.64	2.96	190	76
Dominic Scheffler L 2024 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	19.7%	28.4%	0.9%	.348	5.19	16.1%	-4.1%	82	-0.35	4.59	110	76
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	75
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.30	19.0%	8.0%	394	-1.50	3.58	460	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	57	21.0%	12.3%	1.14	4.97
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43