Jarol Capellan — OGILVIE

Jarol CapellanSS DSL Orioles Orange

Age 20 L/R 5'11" / 176 lbs ROK HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION74 act + 49 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .264 / .243

PA49

HR0

K%24

BB%6

BABIP270

ISO44

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 53 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT53

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.9M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$17M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	140	118	27	5	0	0	8	32	12	2	1	229	341	271	612	42	310	23	6	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	140	111	31	6	0	0	15	22	12	2	1	279	420	333	754	54	344	16	11	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	112	99	16	3	1	1	9	33	4	2	1	162	259	242	501	81	231	29	8	227	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	112	92	21	4	2	1	16	24	4	2	1	228	366	348	714	120	299	21	14	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	COL	—	74	66	13	3	0	0	5	10	3	5	1	197	284	242	526	45	232	14	7	231	35	-5	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
YTD	20	ROK	COL	—	74	63	15	4	0	0	8	7	3	5	1	238	351	302	653	63	268	9	11	309	95	-0	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.3
ROS	20	ROK	COL	0%	49	45	9	2	0	0	3	12	1	1	0	199	264	243	506	44	279	24	6	267	63	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
ROS	20	MLB	COL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		300	—	—	267	63	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	COL	—	74	67	13	3	0	0	5	10	3	5	1	194	284	239	523	45	228	14	7	231	35	-5	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
TOT	20	ROK	COL	—	123	111	22	5	0	0	8	22	4	6	1	198	276	243	518	45	246	18	6	246	46	-8	+1	+0	+1	+3	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	COL	34%	182	163	36	7	1	2	13	42	4	4	1	221	294	313	607	92	280	23	7	276	70	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2028	22	MLB	COL	48%	312	280	64	12	2	5	23	72	6	6	2	229	301	339	640	111	282	23	7	283	75	-9	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.4
2029	23	MLB	COL	54%	401	361	81	15	2	7	29	92	8	8	2	224	296	335	632	111	283	23	7	288	79	-10	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.7
2030	24	MLB	COL	55%	461	415	95	18	3	8	34	105	9	9	2	229	301	345	646	116	284	23	7	291	81	-10	+1	+0	+5	+13	0.9
2031	25	MLB	COL	56%	496	446	102	19	3	9	37	113	10	10	3	229	302	345	648	117	284	23	7	292	82	-10	+1	+0	+5	+14	1.0
2032	26	MLB	COL	56%	515	462	106	20	3	9	38	117	10	10	3	229	302	344	646	115	284	23	7	293	82	-10	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.1
2033	27	MLB	COL	55%	523	468	108	20	3	10	40	120	10	11	3	231	305	350	655	120	284	23	8	293	83	-10	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.1
2034	28	MLB	COL	55%	524	469	107	20	3	9	40	120	10	10	3	228	303	341	644	113	284	23	8	292	82	-11	+1	-1	+6	+15	1.0
2035	29	MLB	COL	53%	517	462	105	20	3	9	40	120	10	10	3	227	303	342	645	115	283	23	8	291	81	-11	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.8
2027	21	MLB	COL	34%	63	58	13	3	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	224	286	328	613	103	300	24	6	279	72	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	22	MLB	COL	48%	151	136	33	6	1	3	11	35	3	3	1	243	313	368	681	125	303	23	7	287	78	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2029	23	MLB	COL	54%	217	195	47	9	1	4	16	50	4	4	1	241	312	359	671	118	304	23	7	293	82	-4	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.5
2030	24	MLB	COL	55%	256	230	57	11	2	5	19	58	5	5	1	248	319	378	697	130	306	23	7	297	85	-4	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.6
2031	25	MLB	COL	56%	278	250	62	12	2	6	21	63	5	6	1	248	319	384	703	136	306	23	8	298	86	-4	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.7
2032	26	MLB	COL	56%	290	260	64	12	2	6	22	66	6	6	2	246	319	377	696	131	306	23	8	298	87	-4	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.7
2033	27	MLB	COL	55%	289	259	64	12	2	6	22	66	6	6	2	247	321	378	699	131	306	23	8	299	87	-4	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.7
2034	28	MLB	COL	55%	287	257	63	12	2	6	22	66	6	6	1	245	319	377	697	132	305	23	8	298	86	-5	+1	-0	+3	+8	0.7
2035	29	MLB	COL	53%	276	248	61	12	2	6	21	64	5	5	1	246	318	383	701	137	305	23	8	296	84	-5	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.6
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2107	1894	464	89	14	43	158	483	41	42	10	245	317	375	692	130	306	23	7	296	85	-37	+4	-1	+23	+60	5.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	142	27	4	13	49	149	13	13	3	243	316	370	686	127	304	23	8	296	85	-11	+1	-0	+7	+18	1.5
Career	—			—	4232	3788	856	161	24	69	314	978	94	83	24	226	301	336	637	110	285	23	7	288	78	-104	+7	-2	+45	+120	6.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	132	25	4	11	48	150	14	13	4	227	301	340	641	113	285	23	7	288	78	-16	+1	-0	+7	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rockies	—	140	111	31	6	0	0	15	22	12	2	1	279	420	333	754	54	344	16	11	354	129	+5	+0	—	—	+4	0.9
2025	19	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	112	92	21	4	2	1	16	24	4	2	1	228	366	348	714	120	299	21	14	332	112	+2	+0	—	—	+3	0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,202	38	43	228	298	341	+24	+18	3.9	3.8
	/162	664	11	13	228	298	341	+7.1	+5.4	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jarol Capellan (OGILVIE)	20	48→53	29→34	47→52	50	198/276/243	45	246	0	6	18%	6%	46	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Marcus Lemon 2008 · A	20	48→53	37→40	46→45	46	226/292/310	84	301	3	10	24%	7%	69	-0.4	240/291/327	87	298	5	8	20%	6%	72	-0.2	233/281/325	92	296	4	6	22%	6%	63	-0.4
✕Raynel Delgado 2021 · A	21	46→56	37→40	50→60	42	217/268/291	74	307	4	9	30%	6%	53	-1.5	197/260/284	87	287	7	14	32%	7%	49	-1.8	242/304/336	94	333	8	32	28%	7%	76	+0.1
●Jorbit Vivas 2021 · A	20	46→56	37→45	49→50	46	217/288/299	82	276	3	11	21%	7%	66	-0.6	248/321/370	122	279	11	7	15%	7%	98	+1.6	245/326/365	120	273	11	9	14%	7%	96	+1.4
✕Logan Watkins 2010 · A	20	50→52	36→40	50→55	48	229/306/299	69	323	3	7	28%	9%	72	-0.2	234/294/316	82	315	3	14	25%	7%	70	-0.3	238/303/328	90	315	4	17	24%	8%	74	-0.1
✕Cam Maron 2011 · A	20	47→57	40	50→40	47	225/290/318	93	285	7	6	23%	8%	70	-0.3	245/313/328	83	314	6	4	22%	8%	82	+0.5	244/317/320	76	314	4	2	22%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Cesar Ortega 2021 · A	20	47	37→30	50→55	47	222/295/295	73	292	4	8	24%	8%	67	-0.5	211/287/287	76	259	3	13	19%	7%	62	-0.9	195/283/262	67	230	2	21	15%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Freizer Pedron 2007 · A	20	44	37→40	49→55	42	207/263/283	75	275	4	12	25%	6%	50	-1.8	229/295/302	73	307	3	16	24%	7%	69	-0.4	262/328/337	75	341	2	29	22%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Matt Cerda 2010 · A	20	43→53	38→40	50→40	46	205/262/283	78	260	6	6	23%	7%	49	-1.8	234/306/310	76	293	3	4	19%	9%	75	-0.0	234/314/304	70	294	3	4	19%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Tucker Barnhart 2011 · A	20	47→54	35→45	48→40	45	216/280/282	66	302	2	7	28%	8%	56	-1.3	225/284/304	79	292	4	3	22%	7%	63	-0.8	242/327/368	126	287	12	2	19%	11%	89	+0.7
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	50	38→40	52→50	45	231/304/321	90	315	3	12	26%	7%	77	+0.1	213/282/287	74	343	3	10	36%	7%	59	-1.1	171/249/199	28	339	0	12	45%	7%	20	-0.7
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	47	37→45	47→55	54	220/301/294	74	277	4	12	20%	10%	69	-0.4	211/284/306	95	333	9	15	36%	9%	65	-0.7	194/268/287	93	319	11	18	39%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2015 · A	20	48→56	34→40	50→55	44	224/275/274	50	289	2	11	22%	6%	52	-1.6	243/293/292	49	296	2	9	17%	5%	64	-0.8	264/312/341	77	299	6	21	14%	5%	81	+0.3
✕Brayan Rocchio 2021 · A	20	48→55	38→45	48→50	43	226/277/308	82	281	5	13	21%	5%	62	-0.9	225/284/354	129	286	12	14	25%	6%	77	+0.1	229/300/349	120	276	11	15	20%	8%	80	+0.3
✕Jenner Emeterio 2013 · A	20	45	38→30	48→60	46	214/278/297	83	284	5	13	26%	8%	59	-1.1	217/304/278	61	289	3	24	23%	10%	66	-0.6	216/317/260	44	285	1	34	22%	12%	65	-0.3
●Eliezer Álvarez 2015 · A	20	43→53	40→45	54→55	44	206/262/313	106	260	6	11	22%	6%	56	-1.3	245/295/352	107	322	5	15	24%	6%	81	+0.4	254/308/362	108	342	5	19	26%	6%	87	+0.4
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2019 · A	20	46→51	36→45	50→60	46	216/275/284	68	263	2	13	18%	6%	55	-1.4	225/285/316	91	315	3	20	27%	7%	67	-0.5	240/313/341	101	332	7	39	27%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Johan Rojas 2021 · A	20	48→57	38→45	51→65	44	226/278/313	88	285	3	11	21%	6%	63	-0.8	222/270/334	112	284	9	31	24%	5%	66	-0.6	253/294/353	100	318	7	41	22%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Marco Hernández 2013 · A	20	44→54	38→45	47→50	40	210/246/293	83	267	5	10	23%	4%	44	-2.1	219/246/301	82	290	6	12	26%	3%	46	-2.0	271/296/380	110	350	8	6	24%	3%	85	+0.4
✕Emerson Landoni 2009 · A	20	46→56	36→40	47→45	42	218/276/284	66	297	3	7	26%	6%	55	-1.4	230/281/305	75	293	5	8	22%	6%	63	-0.9	263/307/339	75	314	4	4	16%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→49	41→45	47→55	46	196/269/296	99	264	8	11	28%	8%	56	-1.3	205/280/294	89	283	5	16	27%	8%	59	-1.1	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2