Wyatt Young
SS Binghamton Rumble Ponies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AANYM | 432 | .287/.389/.358 | 4 | 17 | 92 | — | .270/.347/.335 |
| 2025 | 25 | AANYM | 333 | .244/.369/.292 | 1 | 10 | 70 | — | .233/.323/.279 |
| 2026 | 26 | AANYM | 322 | .212/.309/.255 | 1 | 16 | 34 | — | .186/.252/.220 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBNYM | 3 | .205/.283/.252 | 0 | 0 | 59 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBNYM | 58 | .205/.283/.255 | 0 | 1 | 60 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 101 | 92 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 370 | 426 | 478 | 904 | 109 | 479 | 21 | 9 | 404 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 84 | 71 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 352 | 446 | 437 | 882 | 85 | 421 | 15 | 13 | 397 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 434 | 374 | 96 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 56 | 89 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 257 | 355 | 380 | 735 | 123 | 320 | 21 | 13 | 332 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 18 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 214 | 389 | 214 | 603 | 250 | 11 | 17 | 308 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 192 | 171 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 34 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 309 | 339 | 648 | 99 | 275 | 18 | 8 | 289 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 377 | 321 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 52 | 81 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 209 | 321 | 259 | 579 | 50 | 271 | 21 | 14 | 275 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | — | 52 | 46 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 283 | 353 | 326 | 679 | 43 | 382 | 25 | 6 | 309 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 380 | 320 | 92 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 79 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 287 | 394 | 362 | 756 | 75 | 370 | 21 | 13 | 347 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 333 | 271 | 66 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 66 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 244 | 369 | 292 | 661 | 48 | 312 | 20 | 16 | 307 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 322 | 278 | 59 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 71 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 212 | 309 | 255 | 565 | 43 | 276 | 22 | 12 | 265 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 101 | 95 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 253 | 297 | 326 | 623 | 74 | 374 | 30 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 84 | 74 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 351 | 422 | 432 | 854 | 81 | 423 | 19 | 10 | 360 | 130 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 434 | 392 | 98 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 107 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 250 | 318 | 357 | 675 | 107 | 322 | 25 | 9 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 18 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 200 | 333 | 200 | 533 | 212 | 17 | 11 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 23 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 192 | 175 | 38 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 42 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 217 | 271 | 291 | 563 | 74 | 259 | 22 | 6 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 377 | 338 | 64 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 35 | 99 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 189 | 267 | 234 | 501 | 44 | 254 | 26 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Syracuse Mets | — | 52 | 47 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 255 | 314 | 298 | 612 | 43 | 361 | 31 | 4 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 380 | 335 | 91 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 92 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 272 | 351 | 340 | 691 | 69 | 357 | 24 | 9 | 308 | 95 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 333 | 287 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 79 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 233 | 323 | 279 | 602 | 45 | 300 | 24 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 322 | 291 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 87 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 186 | 252 | 220 | 472 | 34 | 251 | 27 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 101 | 95 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 253 | 297 | 326 | 623 | 74 | 369 | 30 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK RAW | FCL Mets | — | 101 | 92 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 370 | 426 | 478 | 904 | 109 | 479 | 21 | 9 | 404 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 536 | 481 | 125 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 126 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 260 | 331 | 358 | 688 | 98 | 339 | 24 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 536 | 459 | 124 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 70 | 104 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 270 | 370 | 383 | 754 | 113 | 334 | 19 | 13 | 342 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 513 | 102 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 141 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 199 | 269 | 253 | 522 | 55 | 262 | 25 | 8 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 569 | 492 | 108 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 68 | 115 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 220 | 317 | 287 | 603 | 67 | 272 | 20 | 12 | 280 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 382 | 103 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 108 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 270 | 347 | 335 | 682 | 65 | 364 | 25 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 432 | 366 | 105 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 52 | 92 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 287 | 389 | 358 | 747 | 71 | 371 | 21 | 12 | 342 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 333 | 287 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 79 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 233 | 323 | 279 | 602 | 45 | 313 | 24 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 333 | 271 | 66 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 54 | 66 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 244 | 369 | 292 | 661 | 48 | 312 | 20 | 16 | 307 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 322 | 291 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 87 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 186 | 252 | 220 | 472 | 34 | 256 | 27 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 322 | 278 | 59 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 71 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 212 | 309 | 255 | 565 | 43 | 276 | 22 | 12 | 265 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 101 | 94 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 255 | 297 | 330 | 627 | 74 | 374 | 30 | 6 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 536 | 480 | 125 | 21 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 126 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 260 | 331 | 358 | 689 | 98 | 334 | 24 | 9 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 569 | 515 | 102 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 47 | 141 | 2 | 16 | 3 | 198 | 269 | 252 | 521 | 54 | 256 | 25 | 8 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 384 | 103 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 108 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 268 | 347 | 333 | 680 | 65 | 357 | 25 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 333 | 292 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 79 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 229 | 323 | 274 | 597 | 45 | 300 | 24 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 322 | 293 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 87 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 184 | 252 | 218 | 471 | 34 | 251 | 27 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 432 | 384 | 103 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 36 | 108 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 268 | 347 | 333 | 680 | 65 | 357 | 25 | 8 | 304 | 92 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 333 | 292 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 79 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 229 | 323 | 274 | 597 | 45 | 300 | 24 | 11 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 322 | 293 | 54 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 87 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 184 | 252 | 218 | 471 | 34 | 251 | 27 | 8 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | NYM | 2% | 372 | 333 | 70 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 34 | 96 | 2 | 11 | 3 | 211 | 289 | 260 | 549 | 49 | 289 | 26 | 9 | 256 | 59 | -18 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | NYM | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 283 | 252 | 535 | 47 | 280 | 33 | 0 | 250 | 59 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | NYM | 27% | 217 | 194 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 56 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 211 | 289 | 263 | 552 | 52 | 288 | 26 | 9 | 257 | 60 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | NYM | 27% | 58 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 283 | 255 | 538 | 50 | 280 | 26 | 9 | 251 | 60 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 58 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 276 | 245 | 521 | 38 | 289 | 26 | 9 | 251 | 67 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 594 | 123 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 168 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 207 | 275 | 244 | 519 | 37 | 289 | 26 | 9 | 251 | 67 | -31 | +2 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2665 | 2382 | 544 | 76 | 8 | 18 | 234 | 667 | 17 | 79 | 25 | 228 | 302 | 290 | 592 | 61 | 306 | 25 | 9 | 268 | 67 | -18 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 581 | 133 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 57 | 163 | 4 | 19 | 6 | 229 | 302 | 289 | 591 | 60 | 308 | 25 | 9 | 268 | 67 | -31 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -1.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 322 PAwOBA .261 → .219 (−42)K% 22.0% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.05% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 7.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.31% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×0.978 | 21.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×0.977 | ×0.978 | 3.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×0.977 | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.978 | 0.37% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .261 → .219; ISO .043 → .035; BABIP .276 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 333 PAwOBA .304 → .271 (−33)K% 19.8% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.82% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.22% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 11.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.32% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 26.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.90% | ÷0.941 | ×0.860 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 3.49% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.911 | ×0.950 | ×0.991 | ×0.988 | 0.50% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.49% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 0.38% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .304 → .271; ISO .048 → .045; BABIP .312 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 380 PAwOBA .339 → .308 (−32)K% 20.8% → 24.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.79% | ÷1.046 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.89% | ÷0.996 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 9.04% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.84% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.95% | ÷0.992 | ×0.970 | ×1.000 | ×0.998 | 31.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.15% | ÷0.954 | ×0.860 | ×1.000 | ×0.998 | 3.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.41% | ÷1.062 | ×0.950 | ×1.000 | ×0.998 | 0.37% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.66% | ÷0.834 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.55% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 67, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 112, K 109, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .339 → .308; ISO .075 → .071; BABIP .370 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 52 PAwOBA .308 → .274 (−34)K% 25.0% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷0.968 | ×1.200 | — | — | 31.01% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.77% | ÷0.933 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 4.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.85% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 3.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷1.006 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.033 | 31.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.06% | ÷0.972 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.033 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 94, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .308 → .274; ISO .043 → .037; BABIP .382 → .361. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 377 PAwOBA .269 → .229 (−40)K% 21.5% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.49% | ÷1.002 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.53% | ÷1.015 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 9.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.27% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷0.993 | ×0.970 | ×0.969 | ×1.012 | 22.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.032 | ×0.860 | ×0.969 | ×1.012 | 2.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.42% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.969 | ×1.012 | 0.34% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.83% | ÷0.925 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 0.71% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 99, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 100, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.969.
Result: wOBA .269 → .229; ISO .050 → .042; BABIP .271 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 192 PAwOBA .288 → .253 (−35)K% 17.7% → 22.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.71% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 22.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.33% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.52% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.90% | ÷0.997 | ×0.930 | ×0.977 | ×1.048 | 20.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.84% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×0.977 | ×1.048 | 5.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.977 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.19% | ÷1.003 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 1.60% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 130, K 92, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .288 → .253; ISO .099 → .081; BABIP .275 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 434 PAwOBA .326 → .296 (−30)K% 20.5% → 24.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.51% | ÷1.017 | ×1.220 | — | — | 24.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷1.057 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 8.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.23% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.16% | ÷0.983 | ×0.970 | ×1.029 | ×1.027 | 24.16% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷0.988 | ×0.860 | ×1.029 | ×1.027 | 6.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.029 | ×1.027 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.11% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.89% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 103, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.
Result: wOBA .326 → .296; ISO .123 → .112; BABIP .320 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 84 PAwOBA .387 → .360 (−27)K% 15.5% → 19.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.48% | ÷0.961 | ×1.200 | — | — | 19.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.10% | ÷1.019 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 9.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.19% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.050 | 1.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 36.21% | ÷0.953 | ×0.930 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 37.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.17% | ÷0.951 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 4.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.999 | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.050 | 1.23% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 91, 2B 90, 3B 100, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .387 → .360; ISO .085 → .070; BABIP .421 → .423. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).