Carlos Lopez — OGILVIE

Carlos Lopez P DSL CLE Mendoza

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 148 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128136vR 144

ERA5.84

FIP5.84

K%21.4%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.4%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	12	0	18	96	25	25	1	0%	1.5	17.7%	32.6%	-14.8%	1.1%	8.84	6.31	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	12	0	18	96	25	25	1	0%	1.5	17.7%	32.6%	-14.8%	1.1%	8.84	6.31	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	12	0	18	96	25	25	1	0%	1.5	26.0%	26.0%	0.0%	1.0%	8.84	5.17	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	15	0	18	102	19	26	1	0%	1.2	12.7%	31.9%	-19.2%	1.5%	7.00	6.87	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	15	0	18	102	19	26	1	0%	1.2	12.7%	31.9%	-19.2%	1.5%	7.00	6.87	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	15	0	18	102	19	26	1	0%	1.2	18.6%	25.5%	-6.9%	1.0%	7.00	6.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	PIT	10	0	11	46	10	9	1	0%	1.1	21.4%	20.0%	1.4%	3.0%	5.84	5.84	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	19	0	20	84	19	14	2	0%	1.1	22.5%	16.6%	5.8%	2.9%	5.45	5.29	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	22.5%	16.6%	5.8%	2.9%	5.45	5.29	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.1	22.5%	16.6%	5.8%	2.9%	5.45	4.91	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	142	20	0%	1.1	22.5%	16.6%	5.8%	2.9%	5.45	4.91	-0.8
Career	—	MLE		27	0	36	198	30	64	3	0%	1.3	15.1%	32.2%	-17.1%	1.3%	7.93	6.60	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		149	0	200	1090	165	351	14	0%	1.3	15.1%	32.2%	-17.1%	1.3%	7.93	6.60	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.84	21.4%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.29	22.5%	5.8%	20	-0.55	—	—	—
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	86
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	85
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	84
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	84
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	84
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	83
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	82
Blake Townsend L 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	18.3%	17.5%	3.8%	.170	3.73	18.1%	8.4%	167	-2.10	3.34	305	82
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	82
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	82
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	80
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	80
Yenfri Sosa L 2024 · 6.08 FIP	20	SU	6.08	19.0%	21.3%	3.4%	.309	4.41	21.7%	7.4%	38	-1.67	2.49	128	79
Jayvien Sandridge L 2019 · 6.78 FIP	20	SU	6.78	19.0%	23.9%	4.1%	.324	3.61	27.9%	5.2%	41	-3.17	3.25	223	79
Boone Logan L 2006 · 4.69 FIP	21	SU	4.69	16.1%	14.0%	2.1%	.302	4.14	17.2%	10.5%	110	-0.55	2.58	442	79
Francis Beriguete L 2021 · 6.05 FIP	21	SU	6.05	20.8%	27.7%	2.2%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	101	79
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	78
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	78
Kevin Escorcia L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	21	SU	5.05	17.3%	21.2%	1.3%	.233	3.48	22.1%	9.2%	129	-1.57	3.16	189	78
Enrique Perez L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SU	4.81	16.2%	14.3%	2.3%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	133	77