Johan Cabeza — OGILVIE

Johan Cabeza P ACL Reds

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 155 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 106

ERA4.71

FIP4.71

K%20.0%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	6	3	12	56	8	6	0	50%	2.1	9.7%	13.4%	-3.7%	0.0%	4.38	3.98	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	6	3	12	56	8	6	0	50%	2.1	9.7%	13.4%	-3.7%	0.0%	4.38	3.98	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	6	3	12	56	8	6	0	50%	2.1	14.3%	10.7%	3.6%	0.0%	4.38	3.26	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	12	11	30	130	30	11	0	92%	2.5	15.7%	10.6%	5.1%	0.0%	3.90	3.11	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	12	11	30	130	30	11	0	92%	2.5	15.7%	10.6%	5.1%	0.0%	3.90	3.11	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	12	11	30	130	30	11	0	92%	2.5	23.1%	8.5%	14.6%	0.0%	3.90	2.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	7	4	26	104	20	9	3	57%	3.8	13.1%	10.8%	2.3%	4.0%	3.42	5.58	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	7	4	26	104	20	9	3	57%	3.8	13.1%	10.8%	2.3%	4.0%	3.42	5.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	CIN	7	4	26	104	20	9	3	57%	3.8	19.2%	8.7%	10.6%	2.9%	3.42	4.16	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	CIN	6	6	28	120	25	12	3	100%	4.7	20.9%	9.9%	10.9%	2.8%	4.59	4.53	+0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	CIN	3	3	14	59	12	6	2	100%	4.7	20.9%	9.9%	10.9%	2.8%	4.59	4.53	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	14	59	12	6	2	100%	4.7	20.9%	9.9%	10.9%	2.8%	4.59	4.15	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	172	86	29	100%	4.8	20.9%	9.9%	10.9%	2.8%	4.59	4.15	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		25	18	69	290	39	32	4	72%	2.7	13.6%	11.2%	2.4%	1.4%	3.80	4.17	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	52	200	845	115	95	12	72%	2.7	13.6%	11.2%	2.4%	1.4%	3.80	4.17	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Johan Cabeza (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.71	20.0%	10.6%	2.9%	—	4.53	20.9%	10.9%	28	-0.18	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	84
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	84
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	83
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	82
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	82
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	81
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	81
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	80
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	79
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	79
Donal Montas R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	20	SP-	5.29	17.3%	9.1%	4.5%	.217	5.03	10.2%	-3.8%	91	-0.26	4.10	156	79
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	79
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	78
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	78
Pedro Reyes R 2023 · 4.17 FIP	20	SP-	4.17	18.0%	9.2%	2.6%	.159	4.92	11.0%	0.5%	90	+0.75	2.87	180	78
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	78
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	78
Xiomer Guacache R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	16.3%	10.5%	2.5%	.255	5.09	13.0%	0.3%	120	+0.67	4.42	186	78