Johan Cabeza
P
ACL Reds
Age 20
RHP
6'0" / 155 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 99
ERA4.34
FIP4.34
K%22.6%
BB%9.4%
K-BB%13.2%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 6 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 2.1 | 9.7% | 13.4% | -3.7% | 0.0% | 4.38 | 3.98 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 6 | 3 | 12 | 56 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 50% | 2.1 | 14.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 4.38 | 3.26 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rojos | 12 | 11 | 30 | 130 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 92% | 2.5 | 15.7% | 10.6% | 5.1% | 0.0% | 3.90 | 3.11 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Rojos | 12 | 11 | 30 | 130 | 30 | 11 | 0 | 92% | 2.5 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 3.90 | 2.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | DSL Rojos | 8 | 6 | 33 | 122 | 29 | 10 | 1 | 75% | 4.1 | 14.9% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 1.65 | 4.07 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CIN | 3 | 3 | 14 | 60 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.8 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | CIN | — | — | 47 | 182 | 43 | 16 | 3 | — | — | 23.4% | 8.6% | 14.8% | 1.5% | 2.47 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CIN | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | CIN | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.23 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 3.85 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 4.8 | 23.0% | 9.0% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 26 | 20 | 75 | 308 | 44 | 35 | 2 | 77% | 2.9 | 14.3% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 3.00 | 3.65 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 69 | 53 | 200 | 821 | 118 | 92 | 5 | 77% | 2.9 | 14.3% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 3.00 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Johan Cabeza (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 22.6% | 9.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.23 | 23.0% | 14.0% | 20 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Rayner Urbaez R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.82 | 23.6% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .337 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 3.0% | 27 | -0.47 | 2.50 | 103 | 84 |
| Chad Donato R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.91 | 439 | 83 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2027 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.65 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.43 | 4.20 | 301 | 82 |
| Caleb Sampen R 2028 · 3.46 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.46 | 21.7% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .358 | 3.46 | 15.2% | 6.8% | 139 | +0.00 | 3.03 | 213 | 82 |
| Miguel Díaz R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | .365 | 4.50 | 19.4% | 8.2% | 233 | +1.10 | 2.22 | 573 | 81 |
| Clarke Schmidt R 2028 · 3.53 FIP | 22 | SP | 3.53 | 23.1% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.23 | 21.3% | 13.1% | 108 | -0.30 | 2.76 | 537 | 81 |
| Joelvis Del Rosario R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.85 | 22.5% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .315 | 4.81 | 14.6% | 6.0% | 197 | +0.96 | 3.13 | 286 | 79 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 78 |
| Ryan Fernandez R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.44 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | .357 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 53 | -0.92 | 2.97 | 335 | 78 |
| Carson Fulmer R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 21.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .259 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 4.0% | 364 | +0.83 | 3.84 | 879 | 78 |
| Porter Hodge R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.18 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.78 | 2.98 | 349 | 78 |
| Alejandro Rivera R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.30 | 24.1% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.30 | 116 | 78 |
| Ulices Campos R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.60 | 17.9% | 11.5% | 2.8% | .253 | 5.16 | 12.0% | 1.0% | 65 | +0.56 | 4.13 | 153 | 77 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.00 | 21.9% | 9.8% | 2.7% | .175 | 4.15 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 168 | +0.15 | 3.59 | 307 | 77 |
| Chris Clark R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 21 | SP | 3.41 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .362 | 4.78 | 17.6% | 7.1% | 303 | +1.37 | 3.41 | 322 | 77 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.32 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.07 | 3.96 | 247 | 77 |
| Connor Cooke R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 77 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2029 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 77 |
| Dualvert Gutierrez R 2026 · 3.14 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.14 | 23.5% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .352 | 4.24 | 15.9% | 2.2% | 78 | +1.10 | 3.14 | 130 | 77 |
| Logan Gragg R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 77 |