Hayden Robinson — OGILVIE

Hayden Robinson P Wilson Warbirds

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 180 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.65

FIP5.65

K%21.3%

BB%18.5%

K-BB%2.8%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	6	3	19	76	28	7	0	50%	3.1	25.1%	11.5%	13.5%	0.0%	2.41	2.44	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	6	3	19	76	28	7	0	50%	3.1	25.1%	11.5%	13.5%	0.0%	2.41	2.44	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	6	3	19	76	28	7	0	50%	3.1	36.8%	9.2%	27.6%	0.0%	2.41	1.23	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	7	7	12	63	10	15	1	100%	1.8	10.8%	29.8%	-19.0%	2.3%	8.76	7.21	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	7	7	12	63	10	15	1	100%	1.8	10.8%	29.8%	-19.0%	2.3%	8.76	7.21	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	7	7	12	63	10	15	1	100%	1.8	15.9%	23.8%	-7.9%	1.6%	8.76	6.18	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	20	10	63	294	60	39	9	50%	3.1	15.9%	15.5%	0.3%	2.9%	6.14	5.34	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Wilson Warbirds	20	10	63	294	60	39	9	50%	3.1	15.9%	15.5%	0.3%	2.9%	6.14	5.34	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	MIL	3	3	5	28	3	4	3	100%	1.6	10.7%	14.3%	-3.6%	10.7%	15.43	9.89	—
2026	21	A RAW	MIL	17	7	58	266	57	35	6	41%	3.4	21.4%	13.2%	8.3%	2.3%	5.40	4.20	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	65	274	61	43	8	100%	5.0	22.4%	15.5%	6.9%	2.9%	5.29	5.15	-0.2
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIL	13	13	67	284	66	39	8	100%	5.2	23.2%	13.6%	9.7%	2.9%	4.97	4.81	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	69	291	69	36	8	100%	5.7	23.8%	12.3%	11.5%	2.8%	4.73	4.58	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	70	295	71	34	8	100%	5.8	24.2%	11.4%	12.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.44	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIL	12	12	70	295	72	33	8	100%	5.8	24.4%	11.3%	13.0%	2.8%	4.47	4.41	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	69	290	71	33	8	100%	6.3	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	2.9%	4.46	4.45	+0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	67	282	68	33	8	100%	6.1	24.2%	11.6%	12.6%	3.0%	4.51	4.54	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIL	11	11	64	269	64	32	8	100%	5.8	24.0%	11.8%	12.2%	3.1%	4.60	4.67	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIL	6	6	32	135	30	21	4	100%	5.3	22.4%	15.5%	6.9%	3.0%	5.37	5.23	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIL	9	9	49	207	48	28	6	100%	5.4	23.2%	13.6%	9.7%	3.0%	5.05	4.89	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	57	241	57	30	7	100%	5.7	23.8%	12.3%	11.5%	3.0%	4.81	4.66	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	62	262	63	30	8	100%	5.6	24.2%	11.4%	12.8%	3.0%	4.63	4.52	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	64	270	66	31	8	100%	5.8	24.4%	11.3%	13.0%	3.0%	4.55	4.49	+0.4
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIL	11	11	64	270	66	31	8	100%	5.8	24.3%	11.4%	12.9%	3.0%	4.54	4.53	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	62	262	63	30	8	100%	6.2	24.2%	11.6%	12.6%	3.1%	4.59	4.62	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIL	10	10	61	258	62	30	8	100%	6.1	24.0%	11.8%	12.2%	3.3%	4.69	4.76	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		78	78	450	1900	455	230	58	100%	5.8	23.9%	12.1%	11.8%	3.1%	4.73	4.29	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	202	102	26	100%	5.8	23.9%	12.1%	11.8%	3.1%	4.73	4.29	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		33	20	94	433	72	73	10	61%	2.8	16.7%	16.9%	-0.2%	2.3%	5.74	5.10	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	43	200	921	154	156	21	61%	2.8	16.7%	16.9%	-0.2%	2.3%	5.74	5.10	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Hayden Robinson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.65	21.3%	18.5%	3.0%	—	4.84	23.2%	9.4%	201	-0.81	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	91
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	85
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	84
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	83
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	211	80
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	80
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	80
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	80
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	79
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	79
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	78
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	77
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	77
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	76
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	76
Fernando Baez R 2015 · 6.56 FIP	23	SP-	6.56	18.6%	18.8%	4.8%	.322	4.51	26.9%	7.8%	94	-2.05	3.45	129	76
Kevin Abel R 2022 · 5.92 FIP	23	SW	5.92	25.2%	22.4%	3.9%	.441	4.63	18.6%	4.5%	308	-1.29	4.50	448	76
Kevin Valdez R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	21	SP-	4.87	16.6%	17.9%	1.7%	.188	4.97	16.0%	3.2%	189	+0.10	3.46	263	76
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	76

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	61	23.8%	12.4%	1.12	4.71
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81