Jose M. Rodriguez

Jose M. Rodriguez P Tampa Tarpons

+0.0 WAR

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2029

ERA4.65

FIP4.65

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.9%

BB%11.3%

K-BB%10.6%

IP72

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2029

K†5055

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	19	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	6	0	6	37	8	10	1	—	—	—	9.00	—	—
2025	21	A	Tampa Tarpons	17	13	72	310	73	46	3	16.6%	18.1%	1.4%	3.38	4.78	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	22	A	Tampa Tarpons	3	0	7	31	14	6	0	—	—	—	1.23	—	—
ROS	22	MLB	NYY	13	13	72	304	66	34	9	21.9%	11.3%	2.9%	4.65	4.65	+0.3
2026 Total	22	MLB	NYY	—	—	79	335	80	40	9	24.0%	12.1%	2.6%	4.33	4.22	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	23	MLB	NYY	14	14	75	315	72	33	9	22.8%	10.3%	2.9%	4.51	4.44	+0.5
2028	24	MLB	NYY	14	14	77	323	76	31	9	23.4%	9.7%	2.8%	4.38	4.30	+0.7
2029	25	MLB	NYY	14	14	78	328	78	31	9	23.7%	9.3%	2.8%	4.28	4.21	+0.8
2030	26	MLB	NYY	14	14	78	328	78	30	9	23.9%	9.3%	2.8%	4.23	4.19	+0.8
2031	27	MLB	NYY	14	14	77	325	78	30	9	23.9%	9.3%	2.9%	4.21	4.20	+0.8
2032	28	MLB	NYY	14	14	76	320	76	30	9	23.9%	9.4%	2.9%	4.22	4.23	+0.7
2033	29	MLB	NYY	13	13	74	313	74	30	9	23.8%	9.4%	2.9%	4.25	4.27	+0.7
2034	30	MLB	NYY	13	13	72	304	72	29	9	23.6%	9.5%	3.0%	4.30	4.34	+0.6
2035	31	MLB	NYY	13	13	69	293	68	28	9	23.3%	9.7%	3.1%	4.37	4.41	+0.5
2036	32	MLB	NYY	12	12	67	281	65	28	9	23.1%	9.8%	3.1%	4.45	4.50	+0.4
2037	33	MLB	NYY	12	12	64	269	61	27	9	22.8%	10.0%	3.2%	4.54	4.60	+0.3
2038	34	MLB	NYY	11	11	60	255	57	26	8	22.4%	10.2%	3.3%	4.64	4.71	+0.2
2039	35	MLB	NYY	57	—	57	240	53	25	8	22.0%	10.4%	3.4%	4.75	4.83	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			26	13	85	378	73	72	5	19.4%	19.1%	1.4%	3.59	4.67	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—			61	30	200	886	171	169	12	19.4%	19.1%	1.4%	3.59	4.67	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose M. Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.65	21.9%	11.3%	2.9%	—	4.32	23.3%	13.5%	229	-0.33	—	—	—
Jhonny Polanco R 2027 · 4.74 FIP	23	SW	4.74	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.09	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.65	4.09	116	94
Jake Lyons R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	93
Kohl Franklin R 2026 · 5.27 FIP	22	SW	5.27	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.64	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.37	5.27	174	92
Alec Barger R 2027 · 4.51 FIP	23	SW	4.51	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.34	3.86	242	92
Khristian Curtis R 2026 · 5.50 FIP	22	SW	5.50	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.57	19.5%	8.6%	122	-0.93	4.45	198	91
Nick Garcia R 2026 · 4.54 FIP	22	SW	4.54	18.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.274	5.03	17.3%	5.9%	265	+0.49	4.28	355	91
Josh White R 2026 · 5.09 FIP	22	SW	5.09	17.7%	13.9%	3.1%	.244	2.57	29.9%	19.6%	126	-2.52	1.89	191	90
Aaron Hernandez R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.77	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.05	4.61	194	90
Josh Harlow R 2027 · 5.24 FIP	23	SW	5.24	18.5%	13.5%	3.6%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.49	5.24	107	90
Tyler Vogel R 2026 · 4.87 FIP	22	SW	4.87	23.4%	14.3%	3.5%	.305	4.25	18.8%	7.4%	82	-0.62	3.84	147	89
Jared Lyons R 2026 · 4.46 FIP	22	SW	4.46	20.1%	15.3%	2.0%	.345	3.71	19.8%	9.0%	115	-0.75	3.28	169	89
Cade Winquest R 2027 · 4.37 FIP	23	SW	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.94	18.5%	7.4%	135	-0.43	3.84	213	89
Mario Alcantara R 2026 · 4.84 FIP	22	SW	4.84	16.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.292	4.63	17.0%	0.9%	97	-0.21	4.32	171	89
Anyelo Gómez R 2027 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	17.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-1.97	2.66	145	89
Frank German R 2025 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	89
Ben Hecht R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	18.3%	14.4%	1.9%	.265	4.51	22.7%	9.8%	58	+0.09	4.42	155	88
William Kempner R 2026 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	88
Tanner Hall R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	88
Matt Brill R 2027 · 4.89 FIP	23	SW	4.89	20.8%	16.3%	2.7%	.248	3.88	19.4%	4.9%	60	-1.01	3.74	161	88
Ryan Cardona R 2026 · 5.19 FIP	22	SW	5.19	20.9%	17.7%	2.9%	.274	4.24	18.5%	4.3%	292	-0.95	3.54	367	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.6	$3M	+$3M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.5	$3M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$16M	+$13M