Luis Hernandez — OGILVIE

Luis Hernandez P DSL Giants Black

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 211 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 151143vR 134

ERA6.19

FIP6.19

K%16.8%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%-3.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	2	0	2	10	2	2	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.94	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	2	0	2	10	2	2	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	3.94	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	2	0	2	10	2	2	0	0%	0.8	20.0%	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.40	4.30	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	13	6	24	106	23	21	1	46%	1.8	14.8%	24.8%	-10.0%	1.4%	3.80	5.74	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	13	6	24	106	23	21	1	46%	1.8	14.8%	24.8%	-10.0%	1.4%	3.80	5.74	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	13	6	24	106	23	21	1	46%	1.8	21.7%	19.8%	1.9%	0.9%	3.80	4.37	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	12	10	39	186	23	32	2	83%	3.2	8.4%	21.5%	-13.1%	1.5%	5.08	5.94	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	12	10	39	186	23	32	2	83%	3.2	8.4%	21.5%	-13.1%	1.5%	5.08	5.94	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	12	10	39	186	23	32	2	83%	3.2	12.4%	17.2%	-4.8%	1.1%	5.08	5.05	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SF	4	4	20	84	14	17	2	100%	5.0	16.8%	20.0%	-3.2%	2.9%	6.19	6.19	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SF	7	7	37	156	30	26	4	100%	5.3	19.0%	16.6%	2.3%	2.9%	5.73	5.55	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	SF	3	3	18	76	14	13	2	100%	6.0	19.0%	16.6%	2.3%	2.9%	5.73	5.55	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	77	15	13	2	100%	4.5	19.0%	16.6%	2.3%	2.9%	5.73	5.17	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		39	39	200	844	165	143	22	100%	5.1	19.0%	16.6%	2.3%	2.9%	5.73	5.17	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		27	16	64	302	33	68	4	59%	2.4	11.0%	22.6%	-11.6%	1.4%	4.62	5.81	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		84	50	200	939	103	212	13	59%	2.4	11.0%	22.6%	-11.6%	1.4%	4.62	5.81	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.19	16.8%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.55	19.0%	2.3%	37	-0.64	—	—	—
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	91
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	88
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	87
Chad Bryant R 2021 · 6.29 FIP	21	SP-	6.29	14.8%	20.7%	3.3%	.337	5.59	16.0%	-3.4%	81	-0.70	3.93	136	86
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	85
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	84
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	82
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	216	82
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	82
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	81
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	81
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	81
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	81
Jatnk Diaz R 2024 · 7.33 FIP	19	SP-	7.33	12.1%	24.0%	4.0%	.318	5.06	13.9%	-0.8%	102	-2.27	4.97	117	81
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	80
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	80
Wellington Aracena R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	19	SP-	5.43	18.9%	24.7%	1.5%	.343	3.94	20.0%	4.8%	196	-1.49	3.20	304	80
Dylan Questad R 2024 · 6.95 FIP	19	SP-	6.95	17.6%	24.0%	4.2%	.392	6.50	17.3%	-5.3%	89	-0.45	6.31	117	80
Ismael Agreda R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SP-	5.28	17.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.269	4.71	21.1%	6.1%	178	-0.57	3.35	272	79
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	18.2%	17.8%	1.11	5.89
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Denny Bautista ('10)	1.1	45	17.3%	12.7%	0.85	5.89