Dionel Villalobos prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Dionel Villalobos P DSL Astros Orange

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%20.8%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	11	3	26	112	15	14	2	27%	2.3	9.1%	15.6%	-6.5%	2.8%	4.56	5.83	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Orange	11	3	26	112	15	14	2	27%	2.3	9.1%	15.6%	-6.5%	2.8%	4.56	5.83	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Orange	11	3	26	112	15	14	2	27%	2.3	13.4%	12.5%	0.9%	1.8%	4.56	4.58	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	—	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.8%	12.7%	8.1%	3.0%	4.97	4.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	—	23	0	24	103	22	12	3	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.80	4.73	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	—	11	0	12	51	11	6	1	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.80	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	50	11	6	1	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.80	4.35	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	184	100	17	0%	1.1	21.4%	11.4%	10.0%	2.9%	4.80	4.35	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		11	3	26	112	10	18	3	27%	2.3	9.1%	15.6%	-6.5%	2.8%	4.56	5.83	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	23	200	873	79	136	24	27%	2.3	9.1%	15.6%	-6.5%	2.8%	4.56	5.83	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dionel Villalobos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	20.8%	12.7%	3.0%	—	4.73	21.4%	10.0%	24	-0.24	—	—	—
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	85
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	84
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	84
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	84
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	83
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	83
Joel Ibarra R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	20	SW	4.08	21.4%	13.8%	1.9%	.323	4.74	19.6%	-3.4%	86	+0.66	4.08	155	83
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	82
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	82
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	82
Denis Reguillo R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	19	SW	5.27	17.6%	11.6%	4.0%	.358	5.19	10.7%	-8.3%	52	-0.08	3.78	109	81
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	81
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	80
Edgar Sanchez R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	20	SW	3.89	17.2%	11.0%	1.5%	.288	4.34	16.2%	3.0%	189	+0.45	2.53	257	80
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	80
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	80
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	80
Nick Lockhart R 2021 · 5.73 FIP	20	SW	5.73	18.3%	11.6%	4.9%	.315	4.53	19.3%	9.0%	92	-1.20	4.44	140	79
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	79