Christian Herberholz

Christian Herberholz P Norfolk Tides

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 195 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 101

ERA4.45

FIP4.45

K%20.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP21

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	48	199	47	15	3	0%	1.5	18.4%	8.4%	10.0%	2.0%	3.21	3.72	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	31	0	48	199	47	15	3	0%	1.5	18.4%	8.4%	10.0%	2.0%	3.21	3.72	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	31	0	48	199	47	15	3	0%	1.5	23.6%	7.5%	16.1%	1.5%	3.21	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	29	15	85	377	72	31	18	52%	2.9	15.7%	7.9%	7.8%	5.4%	5.10	5.77	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	29	15	85	377	72	31	18	52%	2.9	15.7%	7.9%	7.8%	5.4%	5.10	5.77	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	BAL	15	6	36	157	32	10	7	40%	2.4	20.4%	6.4%	14.0%	4.5%	5.05	4.63	—
2026	25	AAA RAW	BAL	14	9	49	220	40	21	11	64%	3.5	18.2%	9.5%	8.6%	5.0%	5.14	5.52	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	BAL	79	0	83	350	72	30	10	0%	1.0	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.41	4.40	+0.1
2028	27	MLB MLE	BAL	78	0	82	345	72	29	10	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.5%	12.3%	3.0%	4.41	4.42	+0.1
2029	28	MLB MLE	BAL	75	0	79	334	76	26	10	0%	1.1	22.7%	7.8%	14.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.23	+0.3
2030	29	MLB MLE	BAL	72	0	76	319	72	26	10	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.0%	14.4%	3.2%	4.34	4.36	+0.2
2031	30	MLB MLE	BAL	68	0	71	300	66	25	10	0%	1.0	22.1%	8.3%	13.8%	3.4%	4.46	4.54	+0.0
2027	26	MLB CTX	BAL	38	0	40	169	35	14	5	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.4%	12.2%	2.9%	4.41	4.40	+0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	BAL	51	0	54	228	47	19	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.5%	12.3%	3.0%	4.41	4.42	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	BAL	58	0	61	258	58	20	8	0%	1.1	22.7%	7.8%	14.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.23	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	BAL	60	0	63	266	60	21	9	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.0%	14.4%	3.2%	4.34	4.36	+0.1
2031	30	MLB CTX	BAL	59	0	62	262	58	22	9	0%	1.1	22.1%	8.3%	13.8%	3.4%	4.46	4.54	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		266	0	279	1179	258	96	37	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.2%	13.7%	3.1%	4.38	4.01	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	69	26	0%	1.1	21.8%	8.2%	13.7%	3.1%	4.38	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		60	15	132	576	96	47	25	25%	2.2	16.6%	8.1%	8.5%	4.3%	4.42	5.06	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	23	200	871	145	70	37	25%	2.2	16.6%	8.1%	8.5%	4.3%	4.42	5.06	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Christian Herberholz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	20.2%	8.6%	2.9%	—	4.35	21.3%	13.1%	244	-0.10	—	—	—
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	87
Shohei Tomioka R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	25	SW	4.00	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.40	17.2%	4.0%	141	+0.40	3.65	299	81
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	81
Derek Gordon R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	25	SW	4.62	19.9%	9.3%	3.7%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	4.62	146	79
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	78
Tristan Stevens R 2023 · 4.14 FIP	25	SW	4.14	17.3%	8.2%	2.7%	.411	3.68	15.0%	7.7%	91	-0.46	3.68	126	78
Jose Samayoa R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	26	SW	3.44	16.6%	9.9%	0.9%	.286	3.79	17.3%	9.4%	226	+0.35	3.44	262	77
Edwin Quirarte R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	28	SW	3.41	16.7%	6.2%	1.7%	.311	3.48	12.7%	4.9%	83	+0.06	3.16	157	77
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2023 · 5.11 FIP	24	SW	5.11	18.2%	9.9%	4.2%	.304	3.67	18.0%	9.9%	189	-1.44	3.51	330	76
Noah Bremer R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	25	SW	4.39	18.0%	9.4%	2.9%	.292	5.82	13.1%	1.2%	46	+1.43	3.19	271	76
Andrew Bellatti R 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.3%	8.8%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	2.67	278	75
Coleman Huntley III R 2021 · 3.85 FIP	28	SW	3.85	20.2%	7.4%	2.8%	.348	3.56	23.4%	13.2%	86	-0.29	2.38	160	75
Michael Flynn R 2022 · 3.89 FIP	25	SW	3.89	14.2%	8.4%	1.7%	.362	4.45	24.0%	13.5%	98	+0.56	3.89	168	75
Micah Dallas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	15.1%	5.7%	3.6%	.374	4.23	18.2%	9.5%	152	-0.33	3.60	201	75
Barrett Loseke R 2022 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	21.7%	10.1%	3.4%	.311	5.31	22.6%	11.3%	22	+0.89	4.42	152	75
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	75
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	75
Miguel Sánchez R 2019 · 3.65 FIP	25	SU	3.65	21.3%	9.0%	2.2%	.305	4.59	19.1%	9.7%	83	+0.94	2.54	309	75
Jaycob Deese R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	17.4%	6.8%	4.0%	.309	4.83	13.6%	4.4%	140	+0.15	3.28	208	74
Jake Lyons R 2023 · 4.13 FIP	24	SW	4.13	20.1%	8.5%	3.0%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	174	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	69	21.6%	8.2%	1.19	4.39
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86