Aidan Haugh

P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 24 RHP 6'6" / 229 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#541ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	23	ATB	24	23	118	4.79	3.75	22.5%	5.5%	—	K 16.7% · BB 6.5% · FIP 4.92
2027PROJ	24	MLBTB	—	—	0	4.63	4.63	18.0%	6.8%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTB	6	6	38	4.49	4.45	19.2%	6.7%	0.4
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTB	9	9	56	4.42	4.38	19.9%	6.8%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsMason Erla (age 24) · Grant Rogers (age 23) · Blake Beers (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.63

FIP4.63

K%18.0%

BB%6.8%

K-BB%11.2%

Proj IP83

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 83 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$24M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	24	23	118	506	114	28	17	96%	4.9	16.7%	6.5%	10.1%	4.4%	4.79	4.92	—
2026	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	24	23	118	506	114	28	17	96%	4.9	16.7%	6.5%	10.1%	4.4%	4.79	4.92	—
2026	23	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	24	23	118	506	114	28	17	96%	4.9	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	3.4%	4.79	3.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TB	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.0%	6.8%	11.2%	3.3%	4.63	4.63	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	90	378	73	25	12	100%	6.0	19.2%	6.7%	12.5%	3.3%	4.54	4.50	+0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	85	358	71	24	12	100%	6.1	19.9%	6.8%	13.2%	3.2%	4.47	4.43	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	14	14	81	344	69	24	11	100%	5.8	20.0%	6.9%	13.2%	3.3%	4.46	4.46	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	13	13	77	326	65	23	11	100%	5.9	19.9%	7.0%	12.9%	3.4%	4.50	4.54	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	12	12	72	302	60	22	11	100%	6.0	19.7%	7.3%	12.4%	3.5%	4.60	4.67	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	65	273	53	21	10	100%	5.9	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	3.7%	4.75	4.85	+0.4
2034	31	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	57	242	46	19	10	100%	5.7	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	3.9%	4.93	5.05	+0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	38	160	31	11	5	100%	6.3	19.2%	6.7%	12.5%	3.2%	4.49	4.45	+0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	56	236	47	16	7	100%	6.2	19.9%	6.8%	13.2%	3.2%	4.42	4.38	+0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	63	266	53	18	8	100%	6.3	20.0%	6.9%	13.2%	3.2%	4.41	4.41	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	11	11	65	274	55	19	9	100%	5.9	19.9%	7.0%	12.9%	3.3%	4.45	4.49	+0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	63	266	52	19	9	100%	6.3	19.7%	7.3%	12.4%	3.4%	4.55	4.62	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	58	245	47	19	9	100%	5.8	19.4%	7.6%	11.8%	3.6%	4.69	4.79	+0.4
2034	31	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	53	224	42	18	9	100%	5.9	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	3.8%	4.87	4.99	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		66	66	396	1670	328	120	57	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.2%	12.5%	3.4%	4.55	4.21	+5.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	166	61	29	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.2%	12.5%	3.4%	4.55	4.21	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		24	23	118	506	84	33	22	96%	4.9	16.7%	6.5%	10.1%	4.4%	4.79	4.92	+4.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	855	143	56	37	96%	4.9	16.7%	6.5%	10.1%	4.4%	4.79	4.92	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 118 IPFIP 3.74 → 4.92 (+1.17)K% 22.5% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.53%	—	×0.740	16.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.53%	—	×1.180	6.53%
HR / BF /BF	3.36%	÷1.000	×1.300	4.37%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.74 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Haugh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.63	18.0%	6.8%	3.3%	—	4.46	19.7%	12.9%	256	-0.17	—	—	—
Mason Erla R 2022 · 4.11 FIP	24	SP	4.11	14.9%	6.0%	2.7%	.309	4.89	14.8%	5.2%	124	+0.78	3.11	206	90
Grant Rogers R 2024 · 4.08 FIP	23	SP	4.08	17.4%	7.2%	2.8%	.297	4.45	12.8%	6.3%	280	+0.37	3.90	392	88
Blake Beers R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.94	17.7%	8.7%	323	+0.33	4.32	416	88
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	87
Jack Cushing R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	24	SP	3.69	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	.326	4.64	18.2%	11.4%	332	+0.95	3.68	523	87
Mitchell Kilkenny R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	17.6%	5.5%	2.5%	.290	5.79	13.4%	5.1%	124	+2.12	3.18	237	86
Derek Gordon R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	24	SP	4.90	15.1%	7.7%	3.8%	.322	4.62	19.9%	10.6%	76	-0.28	4.62	146	86
Paul Rigdon R 2000 · 5.29 FIP	24	SP	5.29	16.5%	7.9%	4.7%	.263	5.34	13.6%	2.5%	79	+0.05	5.29	167	86
Gabe Mosser R 2019 · 3.75 FIP	23	SP	3.75	17.7%	6.3%	2.5%	.346	4.57	14.9%	6.9%	104	+0.82	3.75	658	85
Matt Duffy R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP	4.07	18.5%	7.9%	2.8%	.274	9.34	22.0%	9.7%	17	+5.27	4.07	116	85
John Ely R 2010 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP	4.20	17.7%	8.8%	2.7%	.306	4.38	23.2%	12.5%	13	+0.18	4.20	113	85
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.26	16.4%	8.7%	340	+0.28	3.95	448	85
Trent Baker R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	24	SP	3.88	16.3%	6.0%	2.5%	.279	4.27	19.7%	10.4%	253	+0.39	3.86	496	85
Zach Stewart R 2011 · 4.50 FIP	24	SP	4.50	15.2%	5.4%	3.6%	.351	7.14	11.3%	8.9%	36	+2.64	4.27	194	85
Tommy Wilson R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SP	4.35	16.3%	7.7%	3.0%	.261	3.08	22.8%	15.9%	15	-1.27	3.08	129	85
Boof Bonser R 2006 · 4.49 FIP	24	SP	4.49	20.0%	5.7%	4.3%	.294	4.33	17.8%	10.5%	291	-0.16	3.80	417	84
Riley Thompson R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	23	SP	4.69	16.5%	9.4%	3.3%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.63	4.48	340	84
Alex FaGalde R 2018 · 3.82 FIP	24	SP	3.82	19.1%	6.7%	2.7%	.266	5.04	16.1%	6.4%	162	+1.22	3.82	279	84
Jack Mahoney R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SP	3.91	17.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.307	4.16	15.0%	4.8%	206	+0.25	3.80	326	84
Taylor Buchholz R 2006 · 4.94 FIP	24	SP	4.94	16.1%	6.3%	4.4%	.245	3.30	17.8%	13.0%	160	-1.64	3.12	299	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.0	76	19.4%	7.1%	1.33	4.59
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Paul Reuschel ('75-'79, 1 WAR*)	2.0	79	16.8%*	7.6%*	1.29*	4.76*
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Taylor Buchholz ('11)	1.6	78	17.7%	6.6%	1.19	4.28