Aidan Haugh — OGILVIE

Aidan Haugh P Charleston RiverDogs

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 229 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.8 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%20.7%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%13.2%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	24	23	118	506	114	28	17	96%	4.9	16.7%	6.5%	10.1%	4.4%	4.79	4.92	—
YTD	23	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	24	23	118	506	114	28	17	96%	4.9	16.7%	6.5%	10.1%	4.4%	4.79	4.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	TB	24	23	118	506	114	28	17	96%	4.9	22.5%	5.5%	17.0%	3.4%	4.79	3.74	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	119	502	107	37	15	100%	5.7	21.4%	7.3%	14.1%	3.0%	4.29	4.26	+0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	TB	21	21	120	508	111	37	15	100%	5.7	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	3.0%	4.23	4.20	+1.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	120	508	112	36	15	100%	6.0	22.0%	7.2%	14.8%	3.0%	4.20	4.18	+1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	TB	20	20	118	500	110	36	15	100%	5.9	22.0%	7.3%	14.8%	3.1%	4.21	4.22	+0.9
2031	28	MLB MLE	TB	19	19	115	485	106	36	15	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.4%	14.5%	3.2%	4.27	4.30	+0.8
2032	29	MLB MLE	TB	18	18	110	463	100	35	15	100%	6.1	21.7%	7.6%	14.0%	3.3%	4.37	4.44	+0.6
2033	30	MLB MLE	TB	17	17	103	435	93	35	15	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.0%	13.4%	3.5%	4.52	4.61	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	TB	16	16	96	406	85	34	15	100%	6.0	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.7%	4.70	4.82	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	TB	15	15	89	375	77	33	15	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	4.0%	4.90	5.04	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	51	215	46	16	7	100%	5.7	21.4%	7.3%	14.1%	3.1%	4.34	4.31	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	80	338	74	24	10	100%	5.7	21.8%	7.2%	14.6%	3.1%	4.28	4.25	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	95	401	88	29	12	100%	5.9	22.0%	7.2%	14.8%	3.1%	4.25	4.23	+0.8
2030	27	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	101	426	94	31	13	100%	5.9	22.0%	7.3%	14.8%	3.2%	4.26	4.27	+0.8
2031	28	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	102	431	94	32	14	100%	6.0	21.9%	7.4%	14.5%	3.3%	4.32	4.35	+0.7
2032	29	MLB CTX	TB	17	17	100	422	91	32	14	100%	5.9	21.7%	7.6%	14.0%	3.4%	4.42	4.49	+0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	TB	16	16	95	401	85	32	14	100%	5.9	21.3%	8.0%	13.4%	3.6%	4.58	4.67	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	TB	15	15	89	376	79	31	14	100%	5.9	20.9%	8.3%	12.6%	3.8%	4.76	4.88	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	TB	14	14	83	350	72	30	14	100%	5.9	20.5%	8.7%	11.8%	4.1%	4.97	5.11	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		134	134	796	3363	724	258	115	100%	5.9	21.5%	7.7%	13.9%	3.4%	4.46	4.13	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	182	65	29	100%	6.0	21.5%	7.7%	13.9%	3.4%	4.46	4.13	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		24	23	118	506	84	33	22	96%	4.9	16.7%	6.5%	10.1%	4.4%	4.79	4.92	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		41	39	200	855	143	56	37	96%	4.9	16.7%	6.5%	10.1%	4.4%	4.79	4.92	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Haugh (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	20.7%	7.5%	3.1%	—	4.21	21.8%	14.5%	359	-0.15	—	—	—
Chance Kirby R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	23	SP	4.14	17.8%	5.7%	3.3%	.298	5.61	14.2%	6.7%	166	+1.47	4.14	325	90
Nick Kingham R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	20.7%	5.4%	2.9%	.330	3.95	18.0%	12.1%	276	+0.34	2.31	363	84
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	82
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.22	21.7%	13.8%	422	+0.36	3.71	565	81
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Luc Rennie R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	24	SP	3.45	18.7%	5.5%	2.2%	.352	5.56	14.5%	5.7%	209	+2.11	3.45	265	80
Cody Laweryson R 2021 · 4.06 FIP	23	SP	4.06	21.7%	8.4%	3.1%	.329	3.50	21.2%	12.6%	178	-0.56	2.48	298	79
Trent Palmer R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	23	SP	4.79	22.0%	10.4%	4.1%	.284	4.83	12.8%	-9.4%	22	+0.04	3.51	140	79
Glenn Sparkman R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	23	SP	3.76	20.0%	11.6%	1.6%	.296	3.70	15.9%	10.9%	207	-0.06	3.56	363	79
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Andrés Machado R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	23	SP	4.02	16.7%	6.7%	2.7%	.350	4.70	17.6%	8.8%	266	+0.68	3.63	530	79
Kyle Funkhouser R 2017 · 3.28 FIP	23	SP	3.28	24.5%	8.7%	2.1%	.329	4.40	19.0%	5.9%	193	+1.12	3.28	387	77
Josh Roberson R 2019 · 3.67 FIP	23	SP	3.67	17.7%	9.4%	1.6%	.298	5.37	21.7%	5.5%	60	+1.70	3.17	229	76
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	76
Bryce Jarvis R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP	4.99	21.2%	11.0%	4.2%	.276	5.10	17.6%	6.1%	296	+0.11	4.18	533	76
Marcel Rentería R 2018 · 4.13 FIP	23	SP	4.13	16.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.318	4.14	19.4%	8.5%	81	+0.01	3.91	194	76
Gabriel Hughes R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP	5.12	22.2%	10.0%	4.8%	.302	3.83	18.2%	10.6%	201	-1.29	3.10	267	75
Blake Adams R 2023 · 3.40 FIP	22	SP	3.40	18.6%	7.3%	1.7%	.333	4.00	17.0%	10.5%	306	+0.60	3.36	389	75
Chase Whitley R 2015 · 3.53 FIP	26	SP	3.53	18.1%	7.4%	1.8%	.275	3.52	18.5%	12.0%	123	-0.01	3.09	159	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.1	101	21.5%	7.6%	1.27	4.39
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01