Jonathan Hogart

OF Clearwater Threshers

Age 25 R/R 6'1" / 205 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	APHI	107	.284/.448/.444	3	1	98	—	.233/.371/.349
2026	24	APHI	379	.236/.385/.458	17	8	76	—	.181/.299/.344
2027PROJMLE	25	MLBPHI	380	.183/.287/.322	11	6	75	-0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	26	MLBPHI	66	.188/.290/.335	2	1	76	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Max EV85

Chase%79

Speed79

BB%71

Whiff%37

K%35

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRuben Ibarra (age 25) · Jabari Henry (age 25) · Brandon Meredith (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 195 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.181 / .285 / .319

PA195

HR6

K%32

BB%11

ISO139

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 48

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER48

scouting grade only

EYE59

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	23	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	107	81	23	2	1	3	17	28	7	1	1	284	448	444	892	160	385	26	16	400	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	379	301	71	12	2	17	60	107	13	8	1	236	385	458	843	223	298	28	16	374	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	107	86	20	2	1	2	12	36	7	1	1	233	371	349	720	116	319	34	11	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	379	320	58	9	2	13	41	146	13	8	1	181	299	344	643	163	261	39	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	107	86	20	2	1	2	12	36	7	1	1	233	371	349	720	116	360	34	11	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	107	81	23	2	1	3	17	28	7	1	1	284	448	444	892	160	385	26	16	400	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	379	320	58	9	2	13	41	146	13	8	1	181	299	344	643	163	273	39	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	379	301	71	12	2	17	60	107	13	8	1	236	385	458	843	223	298	28	16	374	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	107	87	20	2	1	2	12	36	7	1	1	230	371	345	716	115	319	34	11	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	379	322	58	9	2	13	41	146	13	8	1	180	299	342	641	161	261	39	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	23	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	107	87	20	2	1	2	12	36	7	1	1	230	371	345	716	115	319	34	11	313	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	379	322	58	9	2	13	41	146	13	8	1	180	299	342	641	161	261	39	11	280	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	380	329	60	10	2	11	40	121	8	6	1	183	287	322	609	139	246	32	11	279	75	-11	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	PHI	30%	221	192	35	6	1	6	23	69	4	3	1	186	288	326	615	140	249	31	10	281	76	-6	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	PHI	30%	66	58	11	2	0	2	7	21	1	1	0	188	290	335	625	147	249	32	11	285	76	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	66	58	11	2	0	2	7	21	1	1	0	190	288	328	615	138	257	32	11	285	78	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	109	20	0	20	69	207	10	10	0	191	289	331	620	140	259	32	11	285	78	-18	+2	+0	-4	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	902	766	144	22	5	27	97	313	28	15	4	188	302	336	637	148	270	35	11	284	78	-12	+0	+0	-2	+9	-0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	552	104	16	4	19	70	226	20	11	3	188	302	335	637	147	272	35	11	284	78	-19	+1	+0	-4	+14	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 379 PAwOBA .368 → .280 (−88)K% 28.2% → 38.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.23%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	38.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.83%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.980	10.71%
HBP% /PA	3.43%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	2.62%
Singles /BIP	20.62%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.013	×0.980	18.83%
Doubles /BIP	6.19%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.013	×0.980	5.10%
Triples /BIP	1.03%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.013	×0.980	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	8.76%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.980	6.87%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .368 → .280; ISO .223 → .168; BABIP .298 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 107 PAwOBA .398 → .313 (−85)K% 26.2% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.17%	÷1.065	×1.360	—	—	33.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.89%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×0.990	11.13%
HBP% /PA	6.54%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	5.05%
Singles /BIP	32.08%	÷1.030	×0.920	×0.951	×0.990	26.98%
Doubles /BIP	3.77%	÷0.975	×0.830	×0.951	×0.990	3.02%
Triples /BIP	1.89%	÷0.923	×0.910	×0.951	×0.990	1.75%
Home runs /BIP	5.66%	÷1.083	×0.800	—	×0.990	4.14%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .398 → .313; ISO .160 → .126; BABIP .385 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#6Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.4	261	7	4	184	285	325	-2	+0	-0.1	-0.1
/162	664	19	10	-4.0	+0.0	-0.3	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jonathan Hogart (OGILVIE)	25	20	48	46	59	181/285/319	138	246	6	3	32%	11%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ruben Ibarra 2024 · A	25	39→36	50	47→30	43	204/279/349	145	273	19	4	32%	8%	78	-0.3	200/271/347	147	265	19	2	31%	7%	75	-0.5	190/263/343	153	244	21	1	31%	7%	69	-0.7
✕Jabari Henry 2016 · AA	25	36→41	51→55	46→45	47	194/276/357	163	259	19	7	32%	9%	78	-0.3	192/259/327	135	269	16	6	33%	7%	65	-1.2	167/233/291	124	223	18	2	34%	6%	45	-1.8
✕Brandon Meredith 2015 · AA	25	40→39	50	43→45	47	210/290/365	155	269	18	7	28%	9%	86	+0.3	213/280/334	121	286	13	8	29%	8%	74	-0.5	194/257/282	89	260	10	5	28%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Jared Keel 2009 · A	24	38→37	52→50	48→45	47	205/287/369	164	247	20	10	26%	8%	86	+0.3	203/287/346	143	259	16	7	27%	9%	80	-0.1	178/276/316	138	223	16	1	27%	11%	68	-0.6
✕Jeremy Sy 2015 · A	25	37	48→50	49→50	45	194/265/337	143	254	16	12	30%	8%	70	-0.9	205/270/317	112	296	11	13	32%	8%	66	-1.1	191/259/281	89	288	7	15	34%	8%	51	-1.0
✕Chris Williams 2021 · A	24	35→31	49→55	49→40	47	187/275/336	149	266	17	5	35%	10%	74	-0.6	187/267/334	147	293	18	4	39%	9%	70	-0.8	175/259/344	169	246	24	4	38%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Joe DeCarlo 2019 · AA	25	39→38	49→50	44→30	42	204/278/352	148	275	17	3	32%	7%	78	-0.3	190/258/283	93	284	9	4	34%	7%	54	-2.0	150/218/193	43	239	5	0	37%	7%	17	-1.5
✕Alex Frazier 2006 · A	25	41→38	51→55	44→45	44	216/290/378	161	274	20	6	28%	7%	88	+0.5	207/260/331	124	278	14	5	30%	5%	66	-1.1	186/224/290	104	250	12	1	30%	3%	41	-1.7
✕Allan Cerda 2024 · AA	24	33→25	51→55	41→45	45	174/279/330	156	276	19	7	41%	11%	75	-0.5	187/266/327	140	306	16	8	41%	9%	68	-1.0	141/217/302	161	189	23	4	40%	8%	41	-0.6
✕Shane Selman 2022 · A	25	43	48→50	45	45	214/290/352	138	304	16	8	33%	9%	82	+0.0	200/267/341	141	297	17	7	36%	7%	72	-0.7	161/228/311	150	227	20	3	38%	6%	49	-1.2
✕Zach Zubia 2023 · A	25	38→33	43→45	46→30	52	184/296/291	107	292	12	3	37%	13%	72	-0.7	200/293/327	127	303	16	4	36%	11%	78	-0.3	187/281/316	129	273	18	2	36%	11%	69	-0.4
✕Drew Ellis 2021 · AA	25	40→38	47→55	37→40	47	206/278/343	137	265	15	3	28%	8%	76	-0.4	202/292/370	168	265	18	5	29%	10%	88	+0.4	186/283/356	170	238	19	4	29%	10%	79	-0.1
✕Jeremy Rathjen 2015 · A	25	42→40	47→45	51→50	44	214/281/349	135	275	15	14	27%	7%	78	-0.3	203/258/328	125	275	13	9	30%	6%	64	-1.3	159/208/266	107	210	12	5	31%	5%	28	-1.7
✕Zack Short 2019 · AA	24	40→39	47→50	47→45	51	202/293/345	143	270	14	9	29%	11%	82	+0.0	198/291/335	137	280	14	7	32%	10%	79	-0.2	177/277/302	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	66	-0.8
✕Peyton Burdick 2022 · AAA	25	40→34	51→50	45→50	46	202/298/366	164	295	19	9	36%	10%	89	+0.5	184/270/334	150	284	17	12	39%	9%	72	-0.7	166/253/310	144	262	17	13	41%	8%	58	-1.3
✕Maxwell Costes 2024 · AA	25	42	47→50	50→45	46	213/296/347	134	270	16	8	26%	8%	84	+0.1	204/274/304	100	255	10	8	23%	7%	65	-1.2	162/236/211	50	196	5	3	20%	7%	29	-1.2
✕Jacob Butler 2008 · A	25	39→40	50	38→30	45	207/276/358	151	272	18	3	31%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/352	139	282	15	3	28%	8%	79	-0.2	199/272/335	137	259	15	0	28%	8%	68	-0.8
✕Harrison Spohn 2024 · A	25	39	45	45	45	202/266/321	119	264	14	8	29%	8%	66	-1.1	175/236/260	85	299	8	8	41%	7%	40	-3.0	141/204/204	63	260	5	7	45%	7%	13	-2.3
✕Brad Miller 2008 · A	25	40→38	48→50	48→30	45	209/276/348	138	265	16	2	27%	8%	76	-0.4	193/239/312	119	252	13	4	28%	5%	53	-2.1	134/151/231	96	167	11	0	28%	2%	-1	-2.2
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	39	44→50	51→50	46	196/271/312	116	260	11	11	28%	8%	66	-1.1	211/300/351	140	290	16	6	31%	9%	86	+0.3	202/300/344	142	280	17	3	32%	10%	81	-0.0

Jonathan Hogart

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps