Adler Cecil
P
ACL Padres
Age 21
LHP
6'4" / 160 lbs
ROK
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 102111vR 120
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%23.2%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%12.9%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 18 | 3 | 23 | 126 | 34 | 34 | 2 | 17% | 1.3 | 18.3% | 33.7% | -15.4% | 2.8% | 7.54 | 7.38 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Padres | 18 | 3 | 23 | 126 | 34 | 34 | 2 | 17% | 1.3 | 27.0% | 27.0% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 7.54 | 5.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | ACL Padres | 11 | 7 | 33 | 139 | 56 | 17 | 3 | 64% | 3.0 | 27.4% | 15.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | 5.23 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 3 | 3 | 14 | 57 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 4.5 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 10.3% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 46 | 196 | 69 | 23 | 5 | — | — | 35.3% | 11.7% | 23.7% | 2.4% | 5.01 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.25 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.87 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 9.5% | 14.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 3.87 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 29 | 10 | 55 | 265 | 61 | 64 | 8 | 34% | 1.9 | 23.1% | 24.1% | -1.0% | 2.9% | 6.18 | 5.81 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 105 | 36 | 200 | 958 | 221 | 230 | 28 | 34% | 1.9 | 23.1% | 24.1% | -1.0% | 2.9% | 6.18 | 5.81 | -1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adler Cecil (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 23.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.25 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 20 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Matt Osterberg L 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.89 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.14 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.25 | 3.59 | 294 | 81 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.88 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .347 | 3.97 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.09 | 3.66 | 572 | 81 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.99 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.4% | .250 | 4.39 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.40 | 3.93 | 319 | 78 |
| Jacob Lopez L 2025 · 3.66 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.66 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .302 | 3.58 | 30.4% | 21.6% | 55 | -0.08 | 3.50 | 478 | 77 |
| Jonah Wesely L 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.36 | 26.0% | 12.3% | 3.5% | .450 | 3.51 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 86 | -0.85 | 2.83 | 134 | 76 |
| Develson Aria L 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.07 | 19.9% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .346 | 6.50 | 16.7% | -11.9% | 47 | +2.43 | 4.07 | 137 | 74 |
| Josh Simpson L 2028 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.43 | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .290 | 3.28 | 33.4% | 19.3% | 102 | -1.15 | 3.07 | 247 | 74 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.50 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.55 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 177 | -0.95 | 2.94 | 221 | 74 |
| Sonny Vargas L 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 74 |
| Luis Angel Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.47 | 27.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | .245 | 4.61 | 23.7% | 8.3% | 212 | +1.14 | 2.73 | 388 | 73 |
| Dalton Pence L 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.32 | 23.8% | 9.6% | 1.8% | .271 | 3.89 | 22.0% | 13.9% | 71 | +0.57 | 3.32 | 153 | 73 |
| Jack Patterson L 2027 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 14.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.08 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 80 | -1.64 | 3.08 | 127 | 72 |
| Jordi Martinez L 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .277 | 4.56 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 120 | +0.72 | 3.15 | 205 | 72 |
| Adrian Gusman L 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 16.5% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .280 | 3.65 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 63 | +0.08 | 2.91 | 141 | 72 |
| Lucas Knowles L 2028 · 3.79 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.79 | 20.5% | 12.9% | 1.4% | .366 | 4.10 | 18.5% | 9.4% | 177 | +0.31 | 3.37 | 275 | 71 |
| David Rodriguez L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.74 | 19.8% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.58 | 120 | 71 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .323 | 5.29 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 62 | +1.46 | 3.83 | 119 | 71 |
| Keyshawn Askew L 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.37 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .274 | 3.78 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 196 | +0.41 | 3.37 | 262 | 71 |
| Tommy Sommer L 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 4.2% | .196 | 5.30 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 205 | +0.71 | 4.20 | 230 | 71 |
| Alex Cornwell L 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.3% | 2.8% | .382 | 3.85 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 311 | -0.12 | 3.10 | 381 | 71 |