Adler Cecil — OGILVIE

Adler Cecil P ACL Padres

Age 21 LHP 6'4" / 160 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 13 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134142vR 150

ERA6.17

FIP6.17

K%22.4%

BB%23.2%

K-BB%-0.8%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	18	3	23	126	34	34	2	17%	1.3	18.3%	33.7%	-15.4%	2.5%	7.54	7.19	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	18	3	23	126	34	34	2	17%	1.3	18.3%	33.7%	-15.4%	2.5%	7.54	7.19	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	18	3	23	126	34	34	2	17%	1.3	27.0%	27.0%	0.0%	1.6%	7.54	5.75	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	11	62	271	107	38	6	58%	3.2	27.7%	17.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.09	4.61	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	19	11	62	271	107	38	6	58%	3.2	27.7%	17.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.09	4.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	SD	13	9	41	178	70	22	5	69%	3.2	39.3%	12.4%	27.0%	2.8%	4.79	2.89	—
2026	21	A RAW	SD	6	2	20	93	37	16	1	33%	3.4	39.8%	17.2%	22.6%	1.1%	2.66	2.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	60	0	63	268	63	51	8	0%	1.1	23.4%	19.0%	4.4%	2.9%	5.70	5.52	-0.7
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	63	0	66	278	67	45	8	0%	1.0	24.1%	16.2%	7.9%	2.9%	5.29	5.08	-0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	SD	64	0	67	285	70	41	8	0%	1.1	24.6%	14.3%	10.3%	2.9%	4.97	4.78	-0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	SD	65	0	68	288	72	37	8	0%	1.0	25.0%	13.0%	11.9%	2.9%	4.74	4.59	-0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	SD	65	0	68	288	72	37	8	0%	1.0	25.2%	13.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.64	4.57	-0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	SD	64	0	67	284	71	37	8	0%	1.1	25.1%	13.1%	12.1%	2.9%	4.62	4.60	-0.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	SD	62	0	65	275	69	36	8	0%	1.1	25.0%	13.2%	11.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.69	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	SD	59	0	62	263	65	35	8	0%	1.1	24.8%	13.4%	11.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.82	-0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	31	131	31	25	4	0%	1.0	23.4%	19.0%	4.4%	2.9%	5.70	5.52	-0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	46	0	48	203	49	33	6	0%	1.0	24.1%	16.2%	7.9%	2.9%	5.29	5.08	-0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	SD	53	0	56	236	58	34	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	14.3%	10.3%	2.9%	4.97	4.78	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	SD	57	0	60	253	63	33	7	0%	1.1	25.0%	13.0%	11.9%	2.9%	4.74	4.59	-0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	SD	59	0	62	262	66	34	7	0%	1.1	25.2%	13.0%	12.2%	2.9%	4.64	4.57	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	SD	59	0	62	262	66	34	8	0%	1.1	25.1%	13.1%	12.1%	2.9%	4.62	4.60	-0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	SD	58	0	61	258	64	34	8	0%	1.1	25.0%	13.2%	11.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.69	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	SD	56	0	59	249	62	33	8	0%	1.1	24.8%	13.4%	11.4%	3.2%	4.76	4.82	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		419	0	440	1858	460	261	55	0%	1.1	24.8%	14.0%	10.7%	2.9%	4.86	4.40	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	209	119	25	0%	1.1	24.8%	14.0%	10.7%	2.9%	4.86	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		37	14	84	397	98	89	11	38%	2.3	24.7%	22.4%	2.3%	2.9%	5.02	5.43	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		88	33	200	942	233	211	27	38%	2.3	24.7%	22.4%	2.3%	2.9%	5.02	5.43	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adler Cecil (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.17	22.4%	23.2%	3.0%	—	5.12	24.0%	7.6%	197	-1.05	—	—	—
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	80
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	79
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	74
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	74
Holden Laws L 2021 · 6.35 FIP	21	SP-	6.35	19.3%	15.6%	5.3%	.306	4.71	17.5%	7.1%	133	-1.64	2.96	190	73
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	72
Ryan Anderson L 2021 · 5.71 FIP	22	SP-	5.71	14.7%	26.1%	1.0%	.373	3.73	20.3%	11.0%	149	-1.98	2.80	214	70
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	70
Levi Prater L 2021 · 7.22 FIP	22	SP-	7.22	23.1%	24.1%	5.5%	.338	6.76	15.8%	-7.7%	42	-0.46	6.76	110	69
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	68
Gabriel Cotto L 2021 · 5.09 FIP	21	SP-	5.09	19.8%	17.8%	2.6%	.307	5.21	15.5%	1.4%	155	+0.12	5.02	236	68
Tyler Matzek L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SW	5.49	17.7%	23.2%	1.7%	.256	4.73	22.2%	0.9%	21	-0.76	1.60	190	68
Alex Robinson L 2016 · 5.59 FIP	21	SU	5.59	22.4%	26.9%	1.8%	.243	4.03	23.8%	8.8%	90	-1.56	3.69	135	67
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	67
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	67
Javier Atencio L 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP-	5.66	12.9%	18.4%	2.4%	.387	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	65
Juan Pablo Lopez L 2021 · 5.34 FIP	22	SP-	5.34	19.0%	14.0%	3.8%	.325	4.24	14.7%	-0.4%	28	-1.10	4.24	115	65
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	65
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	64
Salvador Montano L 2015 · 5.23 FIP	21	SP-	5.23	11.5%	15.9%	2.0%	.301	4.65	21.3%	-0.0%	71	-0.58	4.44	116	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	60	24.6%	14.6%	1.13	4.95
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82