Jake Casey — OGILVIE

Jake CaseyOF Vancouver Canadians

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION270 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†89

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP286

ISO157

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 51

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER51

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

DEFENSE51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	64	18	3	2	3	10	19	8	4	1	281	439	531	970	250	357	23	12	430	177	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	67	14	2	2	2	7	28	8	4	1	209	354	388	742	179	319	34	9	324	105	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	67	14	2	2	2	7	28	8	4	1	209	354	388	742	179	324	34	9	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	64	18	3	2	3	10	19	8	4	1	281	439	531	970	250	357	23	12	430	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	67	14	2	2	2	7	28	8	4	1	209	354	388	742	179	319	34	9	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	67	14	2	2	2	7	28	8	4	1	209	354	388	742	179	319	34	9	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	TOR	—	270	232	42	9	3	9	22	108	13	10	2	181	288	362	650	181	280	40	8	280	76	-8	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A RAW	TOR	—	18	15	4	1	1	0	3	7	0	0	0	267	389	467	856	200	500	39	17	378	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ RAW	TOR	—	252	205	50	11	3	12	31	70	13	10	2	244	378	502	880	259	302	28	12	384	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	TOR	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		284	33	11	299	89	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	TOR	—	279	240	43	9	3	9	23	111	13	10	2	179	286	354	640	175	276	40	8	281	76	-8	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	30%	266	235	49	9	2	9	22	85	7	6	1	209	295	379	674	170	284	32	8	301	90	-3	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	337	298	63	12	2	11	28	105	8	7	2	211	296	376	672	164	285	31	8	304	92	-3	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	51%	385	341	74	14	3	13	32	119	9	8	2	217	301	390	691	173	285	31	8	305	93	-3	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	405	358	77	15	3	13	34	124	10	9	2	215	301	383	684	168	285	31	8	306	93	-3	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	415	367	78	15	3	13	35	128	10	8	2	213	299	376	675	163	284	31	8	305	92	-4	+1	-1	-2	+9	0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	413	365	78	15	3	13	35	128	10	8	2	214	300	378	678	164	283	31	8	303	91	-4	+1	-1	-2	+9	0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	410	362	76	14	3	13	35	128	10	7	2	210	297	373	670	163	282	31	9	300	89	-5	+1	-2	-2	+9	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	30%	81	72	16	3	1	3	7	26	2	2	0	222	309	417	725	194	285	32	9	282	90	-1	+0	+0	-0	+2	0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	149	132	28	5	1	5	12	47	4	3	1	212	297	379	676	167	286	32	8	286	92	-1	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	51%	195	172	36	7	1	6	16	60	5	4	1	209	295	366	662	157	286	31	8	288	93	-2	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	212	187	41	8	2	7	18	65	5	4	1	219	305	396	700	176	286	31	8	289	93	-2	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	221	195	42	8	2	7	19	68	5	4	1	215	301	385	686	169	286	31	9	288	92	-2	+0	-0	-1	+5	0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	217	191	42	8	2	7	19	67	5	4	1	220	307	393	700	173	285	31	9	286	91	-2	+0	-1	-1	+5	0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	214	189	40	8	1	7	18	67	5	4	1	212	297	376	673	164	283	31	8	283	89	-3	+0	-1	-1	+5	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1289	1138	245	47	10	42	109	400	31	25	6	215	301	385	686	170	289	31	8	287	92	-13	+3	-2	-8	+28	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	574	124	24	5	21	55	202	16	13	3	216	303	385	688	169	291	31	8	287	92	-7	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2722	2401	510	96	21	87	229	848	72	57	14	212	300	379	679	166	286	31	8	304	92	-27	+5	-4	-16	+57	1.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	122	23	5	21	55	202	17	14	3	213	301	380	681	168	286	31	8	304	92	-7	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#3Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.9	1,290	42	26	214	297	381	-8	+2	1.7	1.7
/162	664	21	13	-4.0	+1.1	0.9	pk7: 2
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Casey (OGILVIE)	23	45	55→51	40→55	54	203/294/367	165	284	4	4	33%	8%	89	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕John Raglani 2006 · A	23	48→47	50	50→45	47	237/310/394	156	313	18	7	29%	9%	99	+1.2	217/291/358	141	292	14	7	29%	9%	84	+0.1	204/283/345	140	272	14	7	29%	9%	74	-0.4
✕Justin Nelson 2006 · A	23	43→41	52→55	47→45	45	225/290/398	173	287	19	10	28%	8%	93	+0.8	214/284/388	174	304	20	6	34%	8%	88	+0.5	204/279/384	180	291	21	3	36%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Matt Cogen 2019 · A	23	47	47→55	54→40	46	234/295/376	142	288	14	5	24%	7%	89	+0.5	206/266/291	85	289	6	5	29%	7%	59	-1.7	164/227/201	37	243	0	2	30%	7%	22	-1.4
✕Dustin Harris 2022 · A	23	51→54	51→50	55→60	46	257/314/415	157	302	19	16	22%	7%	105	+1.7	227/296/370	143	286	16	24	25%	8%	88	+0.5	236/302/353	118	292	12	34	22%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Trey Hair 2018 · A	23	44	48→55	51→45	44	220/290/372	152	284	15	6	27%	7%	87	+0.4	226/287/341	115	299	8	7	26%	6%	78	-0.3	221/280/392	172	282	21	5	29%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Brandon Meredith 2013 · A	23	47→40	50	52→45	43	233/300/394	161	312	17	11	30%	7%	95	+1.0	214/292/363	149	281	17	7	29%	9%	86	+0.3	199/283/343	144	256	17	5	28%	9%	75	-0.3
✕Reid Fronk 2009 · A	23	47→48	49→45	47→50	48	234/312/385	151	300	15	11	26%	9%	98	+1.2	205/291/304	99	284	7	9	28%	9%	72	-0.7	188/280/268	81	268	4	7	28%	9%	59	-1.2
✕Daniel Johnson 2018 · A	23	45→48	50	48→55	39	234/278/386	152	286	18	13	25%	4%	85	+0.2	234/281/378	144	303	14	15	27%	5%	84	+0.2	221/274/370	149	270	18	21	25%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Trey Sweeney 2022 · A	22	43	50	53→55	45	220/289/382	163	296	17	9	31%	8%	88	+0.5	208/282/344	136	276	15	19	28%	8%	78	-0.3	213/282/342	129	276	14	17	27%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Drew Avans 2019 · A	23	45→53	48→45	56→60	49	229/300/373	144	280	16	18	24%	8%	91	+0.6	227/285/347	120	317	11	22	30%	7%	78	-0.3	228/294/342	115	331	8	33	31%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→45	50	51→45	45	210/316/367	157	290	18	7	32%	8%	97	+1.1	216/320/366	150	270	16	7	25%	8%	98	+1.2	214/321/360	146	266	16	7	24%	8%	95	+0.6
✕Zach Kokoska 2023 · A	24	43	50→55	56→55	42	220/284/372	152	280	18	16	28%	6%	84	+0.2	197/264/361	164	273	20	17	35%	6%	75	-0.5	170/241/333	163	239	21	19	38%	6%	58	-0.9
✕Brett Wisely 2022 · A	23	48→50	50	52→55	43	240/297/387	147	323	18	20	31%	8%	93	+0.8	230/298/363	133	301	13	18	26%	8%	87	+0.4	227/298/355	129	291	12	17	25%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Jarred Kelenic 2021 · AA	22	44→54	53→60	53→50	42	230/285/405	175	295	20	14	29%	7%	92	+0.7	223/288/402	179	283	21	13	28%	8%	93	+0.8	223/292/404	181	286	20	15	29%	8%	92	+0.6
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	40→47	48→55	52→55	43	209/268/351	142	267	16	12	28%	7%	74	-0.6	223/290/379	156	286	16	20	27%	8%	88	+0.4	222/295/383	161	284	16	22	27%	9%	88	+0.4
✕Daulton Varsho 2019 · A	23	47→49	47→60	55→50	42	233/291/362	129	300	15	18	27%	6%	84	+0.2	239/303/406	167	279	19	17	21%	7%	99	+1.3	228/296/424	195	260	25	15	23%	8%	98	+1.1
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2007 · A	23	42→48	49→55	49→50	43	216/280/366	151	284	17	7	30%	7%	82	-0.0	206/259/371	165	258	20	9	28%	6%	75	-0.5	239/297/403	165	282	19	7	22%	7%	93	+0.6
✕Derek Fisher 2016 · A	22	43→50	50→55	55	42	218/282/367	149	303	18	18	33%	8%	82	+0.0	229/299/385	156	321	18	19	32%	8%	93	+0.8	225/302/403	177	309	23	18	33%	9%	95	+0.7
✕Christin Stewart 2016 · A	22	46→49	47→55	49→45	41	228/296/372	144	306	14	8	29%	6%	89	+0.5	210/290/375	165	278	20	3	30%	9%	88	+0.4	222/297/388	165	279	20	1	27%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Keegan McGovern 2019 · A	23	44	53→60	47→30	40	227/282/399	172	310	21	5	33%	6%	91	+0.6	199/274/353	154	316	19	5	41%	7%	78	-0.3	160/251/301	141	268	19	5	44%	8%	55	-0.8

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps