Jake Casey

OF Vancouver Canadians

Age 24 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1670ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	22	ATOR	82	.281/.439/.531	3	4	101	—	.224/.366/.403
2026	23	A+/A/INTL2 orgs	323	.220/.356/.451	13	16	79	—	.191/.303/.378
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBTOR	1	.216/.301/.378	0	0	91	0.0
2028PROJ30% MLB	25	MLBTOR	49	.218/.302/.381	2	1	93	0.1
2029PROJ44% MLB	26	MLBTOR	98	.219/.303/.382	3	2	93	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

ISO91

Speed85

wRC+82

wOBA77

BB%57

Chase%41

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 1.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsAustin Wells (age 24) · Jace Jung (age 23) · Parker Meadows (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†91

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .301 / .378

PA1

HR0

K%30

BB%8

BABIP286

ISO158

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	64	18	3	2	3	10	19	8	4	1	281	439	531	970	250	357	23	12	430	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+	Vancouver Canadians	—	252	205	50	11	3	12	31	70	13	10	2	244	378	502	880	259	302	28	12	384	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	18	15	4	1	1	0	3	7	0	0	0	267	389	467	856	200	500	39	17	378	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	53	44	4	2	0	1	4	19	5	6	1	91	245	205	450	114	125	36	8	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	67	15	2	2	2	7	27	8	4	1	224	366	403	769	179	314	33	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	Vancouver Canadians	—	252	214	41	9	2	9	22	94	13	10	2	192	305	379	684	187	271	37	9	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	18	16	3	1	1	0	2	10	0	0	0	188	278	375	653	188	443	56	11	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	67	15	2	2	2	7	27	8	4	1	224	366	403	769	179	342	33	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	64	18	3	2	3	10	19	8	4	1	281	439	531	970	250	357	23	12	430	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	323	273	53	11	4	11	29	124	18	16	3	194	312	385	697	190	298	38	9	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	323	264	58	14	4	13	38	96	18	16	3	220	356	451	807	231	285	30	12	358	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	67	15	2	2	2	7	27	8	4	1	224	366	403	769	179	314	33	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	323	273	53	11	4	11	29	124	18	16	3	194	312	385	697	190	282	38	9	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	22	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	82	67	15	2	2	2	7	27	8	4	1	224	366	403	769	179	314	33	9	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	323	273	53	11	4	11	29	124	18	16	3	194	312	385	697	190	282	38	9	296	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	320	282	61	11	2	10	27	98	8	6	2	215	300	377	677	162	285	31	8	303	91	-3	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	TOR	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	216	301	378	679	162	286	0	0	304	91	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	30%	163	144	31	6	1	5	14	49	4	3	1	217	302	380	681	163	285	30	9	305	93	-1	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	44%	221	195	42	8	1	7	19	66	5	4	1	218	302	381	683	163	285	30	9	306	93	-2	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TOR	49%	256	226	50	9	2	8	22	75	6	5	1	218	302	380	682	161	285	29	9	305	93	-2	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	281	249	55	10	2	9	24	82	6	4	1	218	301	376	677	158	284	29	9	303	91	-3	+0	-0	-2	+6	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	TOR	51%	287	255	56	10	2	9	24	84	6	3	1	217	299	372	671	155	283	29	8	301	90	-4	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	TOR	51%	290	258	55	10	1	9	24	86	6	2	1	214	295	364	659	150	281	30	8	296	86	-5	+0	-2	-2	+6	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	30%	49	44	10	2	0	2	4	15	1	1	0	218	302	381	683	163	286	31	8	306	93	-0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	44%	98	88	19	3	1	3	8	29	2	2	0	219	303	382	685	163	286	30	8	306	93	-1	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TOR	49%	125	110	24	4	1	4	11	37	3	2	1	219	303	381	684	162	286	30	9	306	93	-1	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	145	129	29	5	1	5	12	43	3	2	1	219	302	378	679	159	285	30	8	304	91	-1	+0	-0	-1	+3	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	TOR	51%	148	132	29	5	1	5	12	43	3	2	1	218	300	373	673	155	284	29	8	301	90	-2	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	TOR	51%	149	133	28	5	1	4	12	44	3	1	0	214	296	365	661	150	282	30	8	297	86	-2	+0	-1	-1	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	714	636	139	24	5	23	59	211	15	10	3	219	300	381	681	162	286	30	8	303	91	-8	+1	-1	-4	+15	0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	127	22	5	21	54	192	14	9	3	219	302	383	685	164	286	30	8	303	91	-7	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2038	1787	383	71	16	64	174	634	62	44	11	214	306	379	685	165	290	31	9	302	91	-18	+2	-2	-10	+35	0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	122	23	5	20	55	202	20	14	4	214	305	377	683	163	291	31	8	302	91	-7	+1	-1	-4	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 252 PAwOBA .379 → .299 (−80)K% 27.8% → 37.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.78%	÷1.000	×1.350	—	—	37.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.30%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.998	8.72%
HBP% /PA	5.16%	—	×0.810	—	×0.998	4.17%
Singles /BIP	17.78%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.044	×0.998	16.85%
Doubles /BIP	8.15%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.044	×0.998	7.04%
Triples /BIP	2.22%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.044	×0.998	1.90%
Home runs /BIP	8.89%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.998	7.36%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.044.

Result: wOBA .379 → .299; ISO .259 → .201; BABIP .302 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 18 PAwOBA .369 → .259 (−110)K% 38.9% → 52.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	38.89%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	52.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	11.38%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	0.00%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.990	22.77%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×0.990	10.27%
Triples /BIP	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×0.990	11.26%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .369 → .259; ISO .200 → .141; BABIP .500 → .443. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ADunedin Blue Jays · 82 PAwOBA .419 → .317 (−102)K% 23.2% → 32.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.17%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	32.55%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.20%	÷1.015	×0.690	—	—	8.29%
HBP% /PA	9.76%	—	×0.780	—	—	7.61%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.006	×0.920	—	—	20.31%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.047	×0.830	—	—	5.28%
Triples /BIP	4.44%	÷0.900	×0.910	—	—	4.49%
Home runs /BIP	6.67%	÷1.284	×0.800	—	—	4.15%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 101, 2B 109, 3B 80, K 94, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .419 → .317; ISO .250 → .177; BABIP .357 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#3Larry Stahl'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	36	22	235*	297*	387*	-16	+11	2.4	2.9
/162	664	13	8	-5.5	+3.9	0.8	pk7: 4
#4John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.1	715	22	10	218	298	376	-4	+2	0.9	0.9
/162	664	21	9	-4.0	+1.9	0.8	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Casey (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	213/298/374	161	285	4	3	31%	8%	91	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Austin Wells 2023 · AA	24	43→44	52→55	57→50	48	221/305/386	165	294	19	14	30%	10%	96	+1.0	218/292/386	168	268	20	8	26%	9%	91	+0.7	211/285/386	175	250	21	5	25%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Jace Jung 2024 · AA	23	43→44	52→50	48→40	48	220/300/383	163	290	20	5	30%	9%	93	+0.8	216/304/368	152	282	17	4	28%	11%	91	+0.7	205/299/350	146	260	16	3	27%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Corey Brown 2010 · AA	24	43→49	52→55	52→50	39	218/277/387	169	313	19	9	36%	7%	86	+0.3	227/286/384	157	319	17	12	33%	7%	88	+0.4	228/289/394	166	315	19	14	32%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Jon Gaston 2011 · AA	24	41→42	52→55	53→50	42	216/276/389	172	281	19	10	30%	7%	85	+0.2	207/252/327	120	282	11	13	30%	5%	61	-1.5	193/225/294	101	262	7	14	28%	3%	40	-2.2
✕Cade Marlowe 2022 · A	25	40→50	54→55	54→60	41	211/274/399	188	301	21	15	36%	8%	87	+0.4	225/293/377	152	325	17	31	34%	8%	88	+0.5	220/292/359	140	319	15	40	34%	8%	83	+0.0
✕John Raglani 2006 · A	23	48	50	50→45	47	239/313/398	158	317	18	7	29%	9%	101	+1.4	220/294/365	145	296	15	7	29%	9%	86	+0.3	208/286/354	146	276	15	7	29%	9%	78	-0.2
✕Justin Nelson 2006 · A	23	43→41	52→55	47→45	45	225/290/398	173	287	19	10	28%	8%	93	+0.8	212/282/387	175	300	20	6	34%	8%	87	+0.4	202/277/382	179	287	21	3	36%	8%	83	+0.1
✕Tim Wheeler 2012 · AA	24	48→56	51→50	49→50	42	242/300/401	160	305	19	14	27%	6%	97	+1.1	233/286/343	110	312	10	12	27%	6%	78	-0.3	219/273/306	88	301	6	11	28%	5%	62	-1.1
✕Jordan Beck 2024 · AA	23	43→49	51→50	50	46	220/290/383	163	296	19	13	31%	9%	89	+0.5	226/286/364	138	314	14	16	31%	8%	83	+0.1	224/283/356	132	309	13	18	30%	7%	80	-0.1
✕J.D. Mundy 2022 · A	24	47	51→55	47→30	44	234/301/398	164	317	19	4	31%	8%	97	+1.1	210/274/337	127	319	13	5	36%	7%	72	-0.7	174/240/284	110	276	12	0	39%	7%	47	-1.1
✕Dustin Harris 2023 · AA	24	46→56	53→50	54→60	47	241/304/414	173	279	22	19	23%	7%	102	+1.5	232/304/361	129	298	13	29	25%	8%	89	+0.5	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Drew Gilbert 2024 · AA	23	49→50	49→50	49→45	47	248/313/399	151	299	17	12	23%	8%	101	+1.4	225/300/374	149	266	16	8	22%	8%	91	+0.7	217/301/368	151	248	17	6	20%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Christin Stewart 2018 · AA	24	40→48	51→55	48→45	44	208/283/373	164	278	19	4	32%	8%	84	+0.2	231/303/398	167	289	20	2	26%	8%	98	+1.2	227/301/404	177	282	22	1	27%	8%	98	+1.0
✕Tyler Horan 2015 · A	24	43→42	54→55	48→45	40	226/276/406	181	293	22	10	31%	6%	90	+0.6	209/264/355	146	286	17	7	32%	7%	73	-0.6	196/254/334	139	265	17	5	32%	7%	63	-0.8
✕Josiah Sightler 2024 · A	24	48	51→55	49→40	41	244/298/398	154	313	21	6	29%	6%	96	+1.0	189/248/316	127	353	16	6	48%	6%	58	-1.7	119/183/233	114	249	17	4	57%	6%	14	-2.6
✕Daniel Palka 2016 · A	24	40→43	53→55	49→50	39	210/265/384	174	293	22	11	36%	7%	80	-0.1	217/266/391	174	303	23	7	35%	6%	82	+0.0	207/274/387	180	261	25	4	31%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Scott Cousins 2009 · AA	24	49→51	48→50	50→55	40	242/290/385	143	321	16	14	29%	6%	89	+0.5	235/281/377	142	301	13	16	25%	6%	84	+0.1	237/280/380	144	299	12	19	24%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Dustin Majewski 2006 · A	24	44→49	49→50	46→40	43	224/281/378	155	292	16	9	29%	7%	84	+0.2	221/299/363	142	275	14	5	24%	10%	88	+0.4	218/304/355	137	265	13	3	22%	11%	86	+0.3
✕Mike Antico 2022 · A	24	43	49→45	55→60	41	219/272/369	150	281	16	13	28%	6%	79	-0.2	209/274/329	120	280	12	36	28%	7%	71	-0.8	215/279/331	115	289	12	35	28%	7%	70	-0.7

Jake Casey

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps