Jake Casey — OGILVIE

Jake CaseyOF Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 23 L/R 6'2" / 190 lbs A HR +12%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2030

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .280 / .349

PA90

HR2

K%30

BB%7

MLB%4%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45↗46

PWR

50↗51

SPD

60→60

FLD

55→55

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.6peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.9M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$10M	+$5M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	82	67	14	2	2	2	7	28	8	4	1	.209	.354	.388	.742	.179	.324	34	9	.329	110	+1	+0	+0	-0	+2	0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	MLB	TOR	90	83	18	3	1	2	6	27	1	2	0	.217	.278	.349	.627	.133	.290	30	7	.284	75	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	24	MLB 13%	TOR	177	160	35	6	1	5	13	52	2	4	1	.219	.286	.362	.648	.144	.291	29	7	.294	83	-3	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.2
2028	25	MLB 27%	TOR	274	247	55	9	2	8	21	79	4	7	1	.223	.294	.372	.667	.150	.293	29	8	.301	88	-4	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.4
2029	26	MLB 45%	TOR	341	306	69	12	2	10	27	97	5	8	2	.225	.299	.376	.675	.150	.293	28	8	.305	91	-3	+1	+1	-2	+10	0.6
2030	27	MLB 60%	TOR	376	338	76	13	2	11	30	107	5	9	2	.225	.298	.373	.670	.148	.293	28	8	.305	92	-4	+1	+1	-2	+11	0.7
2031	28	MLB 70%	TOR	397	357	81	14	3	12	32	113	5	9	2	.227	.299	.384	.683	.157	.293	28	8	.304	91	-4	+1	+0	-2	+11	0.6
2032	29	MLB 78%	TOR	402	361	82	14	3	12	33	116	5	9	2	.227	.301	.382	.683	.155	.292	29	8	.302	89	-5	+1	-0	-2	+11	0.5
2033	30	MLB 85%	TOR	402	361	80	14	2	12	33	117	5	9	1	.222	.296	.371	.667	.150	.291	29	8	.299	87	-6	+1	-1	-2	+11	0.3
2034	31	MLB 92%	TOR	394	354	77	13	2	11	32	116	5	8	1	.218	.292	.359	.650	.141	.289	29	8	.295	84	-7	+1	-2	-2	+11	0.1
2035	32	MLB	TOR	379	340	72	12	2	10	31	114	5	8	0	.212	.287	.347	.634	.135	.288	30	8	.290	80	-8	+2	-3	-2	+11	-0.1
2036	33	MLB	TOR	351	315	66	11	2	9	29	108	4	7	0	.210	.284	.343	.627	.133	.286	31	8	.285	76	-9	+1	-3	-2	+10	-0.4
2037	34	MLB	TOR	309	277	58	9	2	8	25	98	4	7	0	.209	.284	.343	.627	.134	.284	32	8	.278	71	-10	+1	-4	-2	+9	-0.6
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			3974	3566	783	132	26	112	319	1172	58	91	13	.220	.294	.365	.660	.146	.291	29	8	.297	85	-66	+13	-10	-24	+113	2.7
/ 162G	—			650	583	128	22	4	18	52	192	9	15	2	.220	.293	.364	.657	.144	.293	30	8	.297	85	-11	+2	-2	-4	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	22	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	82	64	18	3	2	3	10	19	8	4	1	.281	.439	.531	.970	.250	.357	23	12	.430	187	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jake Casey (OGILVIE)	23	45→46	50→51	60	—	.213/.280/.349	.135	.290	2	2	30%	7%	75	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alex Glenn 2014 · A	23	42	48→55	54→50	43	.211/.278/.356	.145	.284	15	11	30%	7%	76	+0.0	.217/.265/.369	.152	.281	16	11	28%	6%	73	-0.1	.214/.256/.369	.155	.272	16	10	27%	5%	66	-0.4
✕Sam Hilliard 2017 · A	23	43→48	45→55	53→55	39	.209/.263/.333	.124	.313	12	15	36%	7%	63	-0.9	.208/.258/.324	.116	.328	12	20	38%	6%	58	-1.2	.203/.279/.381	.178	.280	21	18	34%	9%	80	+0.2
●Derek Fisher 2016 · A	22	43→51	49→55	54→55	43	.218/.283/.364	.146	.302	18	18	33%	8%	80	+0.4	.227/.297/.381	.154	.320	18	19	33%	9%	90	+1.0	.226/.302/.402	.176	.310	23	18	33%	9%	95	+1.0
✕Bob Seymour 2023 · A	24	47	47→55	54→45	41	.228/.290/.366	.138	.338	15	11	36%	7%	83	+0.6	.230/.285/.395	.165	.334	21	6	36%	6%	89	+1.0	.224/.275/.401	.177	.311	24	3	35%	6%	83	+0.4
✕Akil Baddoo 2021 · A	22	41→51	43→55	55	44	.198/.268/.314	.116	.295	9	14	34%	8%	60	-1.0	.234/.308/.374	.140	.313	14	21	27%	10%	92	+1.2	.232/.314/.375	.143	.300	15	24	26%	11%	91	+0.8
✕John Rave 2022 · A	24	42→43	46→50	53→50	39	.205/.270/.332	.127	.311	15	13	37%	7%	66	-0.6	.215/.283/.352	.137	.306	16	15	33%	8%	77	+0.1	.214/.283/.361	.147	.282	16	17	29%	8%	76	+0.0
✕Carlos Guzman 2009 · A	23	42→48	44→50	52→50	37	.208/.257/.321	.112	.300	12	12	34%	6%	57	-1.2	.230/.279/.338	.108	.309	11	6	28%	6%	70	-0.3	.235/.287/.332	.097	.308	10	3	26%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Chris Meyers 2023 · A	24	42→46	44→50	51→40	43	.212/.273/.333	.122	.278	12	9	28%	7%	67	-0.5	.228/.285/.377	.149	.300	18	5	29%	6%	85	+0.7	.226/.286/.378	.152	.294	19	3	29%	6%	82	+0.3
✕Micah Pries 2022 · A	24	47→44	47→55	56→50	37	.228/.285/.364	.136	.335	14	15	35%	6%	80	+0.4	.219/.278/.370	.151	.295	15	12	30%	6%	79	+0.3	.207/.270/.359	.152	.270	16	10	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Richie Palacios 2021 · A	24	48→53	45→50	53→55	44	.238/.287/.362	.124	.295	13	11	24%	6%	80	+0.4	.243/.318/.373	.130	.299	10	18	21%	9%	97	+1.5	.241/.321/.375	.134	.285	11	17	18%	9%	95	+1.0
✕Matthew Spencer 2009 · A	23	46→47	45→55	51→45	40	.230/.278/.353	.123	.298	13	9	27%	5%	74	-0.1	.229/.273/.377	.148	.283	18	7	25%	5%	79	+0.3	.220/.264/.376	.156	.267	20	7	26%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Carlo Testa 2011 · A	24	47→50	46→50	56→50	43	.228/.291/.368	.139	.320	12	16	31%	8%	83	+0.6	.221/.279/.353	.132	.331	12	15	35%	7%	75	-0.0	.213/.270/.345	.132	.324	13	15	36%	6%	66	-0.4
✕Jarrett Parker 2012 · A	23	45→50	44→55	51→50	46	.214/.295/.330	.116	.320	11	13	34%	10%	76	+0.1	.210/.288/.351	.141	.346	15	15	40%	9%	79	+0.3	.230/.305/.409	.179	.334	22	12	35%	8%	97	+1.2
●James Outman 2019 · A	22	40→49	47→60	53→50	39	.203/.260/.335	.132	.285	15	11	34%	6%	63	-0.9	.196/.265/.334	.138	.273	16	13	33%	7%	65	-0.7	.223/.317/.418	.195	.310	25	14	34%	10%	107	+2.0
●Zach Borenstein 2013 · A	23	44→54	46→60	53→50	43	.217/.276/.354	.136	.272	12	14	24%	6%	74	-0.1	.247/.298/.434	.187	.311	22	8	27%	6%	105	+2.1	.250/.301/.438	.188	.317	23	6	28%	6%	105	+1.6
●Ka'ai Tom 2018 · A	24	46→49	44→55	52→50	47	.223/.285/.344	.120	.280	10	14	24%	8%	75	-0.0	.231/.294/.389	.158	.297	16	11	27%	7%	91	+1.1	.218/.291/.382	.164	.284	18	7	29%	7%	85	+0.5
●Chris Dickerson 2006 · A	24	42→52	44→50	54→60	41	.204/.271/.321	.117	.303	11	14	34%	8%	64	-0.8	.219/.289/.358	.139	.330	13	21	35%	8%	81	+0.4	.264/.346/.415	.151	.362	12	29	28%	11%	115	+1.5
●Scott Schebler 2014 · A	23	43→52	49→60	51→50	35	.221/.263/.376	.155	.300	16	9	32%	4%	74	-0.1	.230/.284/.413	.183	.286	21	10	27%	5%	93	+1.3	.244/.314/.434	.191	.283	24	5	23%	7%	105	+1.9
✕Kyle Isbel 2021 · A	24	43→51	45→50	52→55	39	.215/.260/.338	.123	.281	12	17	28%	5%	63	-0.9	.225/.284/.361	.136	.286	13	18	25%	6%	79	+0.3	.226/.284/.366	.140	.280	13	19	24%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Carlos Moncrief 2012 · A	23	41→51	44→50	51→50	44	.199/.277/.322	.124	.308	11	11	36%	9%	66	-0.6	.216/.273/.363	.147	.317	15	12	35%	7%	75	-0.0	.234/.288/.372	.138	.297	14	11	25%	7%	81	+0.4

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)