Jared Sprague-Lott

SS Lansing Lugnuts

Age 25 R/R 6'0" / 195 lbs A+ HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1528ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	AOAK	331	.216/.387/.329	6	10	61	—	.177/.301/.253
2026	24	AA/A+/AOAK	521	.269/.381/.391	10	26	78	—	.227/.311/.323
2027PROJMLE	25	MLBOAK	1	.222/.309/.322	0	0	77	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	26	MLBOAK	96	.225/.311/.329	2	2	80	0.1
2029PROJ52% MLB	27	MLBOAK	147	.225/.311/.331	2	3	80	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%96

Speed89

BB%82

K%79

wOBA73

Z-Con%69

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsCorey Joyce (age 25) · Colt Sedbrook (age 25) · Zach Humphreys (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†77

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .309 / .322

PA1

HR0

K%22

BB%10

BABIP277

ISO92

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	23	A	Stockton Ports	—	331	255	55	11	0	6	65	57	6	10	2	216	387	329	716	114	251	17	20	335	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA	Midland RockHounds	—	99	84	23	4	2	1	14	19	1	5	1	274	384	405	789	131	344	19	14	358	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+	Lansing Lugnuts	—	302	252	63	10	1	5	45	52	2	17	3	250	368	357	725	107	294	17	15	332	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A	Stockton Ports	—	120	99	31	3	0	4	15	17	2	4	0	313	414	465	878	152	333	14	12	382	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	331	277	49	9	0	4	43	77	6	10	2	177	301	253	553	76	220	23	13	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	—	99	88	22	4	2	1	10	23	1	5	1	250	333	375	708	125	326	23	10	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	—	302	266	56	8	1	4	31	66	2	17	3	211	298	293	591	83	255	22	10	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	120	104	26	2	0	3	10	23	2	4	0	250	328	356	683	106	281	19	8	311	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	331	277	49	9	0	4	43	77	6	10	2	177	301	253	553	76	226	23	13	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A RAW	Stockton Ports	—	331	255	55	11	0	6	65	57	6	10	2	216	387	329	716	114	251	17	20	335	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	521	459	105	14	3	8	50	112	5	26	4	229	311	325	636	96	282	21	10	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	521	435	117	17	3	10	74	88	5	26	4	269	381	391	772	122	313	17	14	348	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	331	279	49	9	0	4	43	77	6	10	2	176	301	251	552	75	220	23	13	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	521	461	105	14	3	8	50	112	5	26	4	228	311	323	634	95	274	21	10	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	—	331	279	49	9	0	4	43	77	6	10	2	176	301	251	552	75	220	23	13	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	521	461	105	14	3	8	50	112	5	26	4	228	311	323	634	95	274	21	10	282	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	OAK	0%	380	335	73	11	2	6	39	83	3	9	2	217	304	312	617	96	269	22	10	283	77	-10	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	OAK	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	222	309	322	631	99	277	0	0	288	77	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	OAK	38%	254	224	49	8	1	4	26	56	2	5	1	219	306	320	626	101	270	22	10	286	80	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	OAK	52%	281	249	55	9	1	5	28	62	2	5	1	219	306	322	628	103	270	22	10	287	80	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	OAK	60%	297	262	57	9	1	5	30	66	3	5	1	219	304	322	627	103	271	22	10	286	80	-7	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.2
2031	29	MLB MLE	OAK	62%	296	263	57	9	1	5	29	67	2	4	1	218	303	321	623	103	271	23	10	285	79	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	OAK	63%	294	261	56	9	1	5	29	67	2	3	1	217	300	318	618	101	270	23	10	282	77	-8	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	OAK	38%	96	85	19	3	0	2	10	21	1	2	0	225	311	329	640	105	278	22	10	292	80	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	OAK	52%	147	130	29	5	1	2	15	32	1	3	1	225	311	331	642	106	279	22	10	292	80	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	OAK	60%	177	155	35	6	1	3	18	39	2	3	1	225	309	331	641	107	279	22	10	292	80	-4	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	OAK	62%	182	160	36	6	1	3	18	41	2	2	1	224	308	330	637	106	279	23	10	290	79	-5	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	OAK	63%	184	162	37	7	1	3	18	42	2	2	0	222	305	327	632	104	279	23	10	288	77	-5	+0	-1	+2	+4	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	786	692	156	27	4	13	79	175	8	12	3	225	312	332	644	107	281	22	10	291	76	-20	+1	-3	+8	+17	0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	129	22	3	11	65	145	7	10	2	226	312	332	644	107	282	22	10	291	76	-16	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	2484	2180	468	73	9	39	256	553	24	63	12	215	304	310	614	95	268	22	10	281	76	-41	+3	-4	+17	+35	1.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	570	122	19	2	10	67	145	6	16	3	214	303	307	610	93	267	22	10	281	76	-16	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 302 PAwOBA .325 → .264 (−61)K% 17.2% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.22%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	21.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.57%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.978	10.12%
HBP% /PA	0.66%	—	×0.790	—	×0.978	0.51%
Singles /BIP	23.50%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.989	×0.978	20.92%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.989	×0.978	3.92%
Triples /BIP	0.50%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.989	×0.978	0.41%
Home runs /BIP	2.50%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.978	1.96%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .325 → .264; ISO .107 → .086; BABIP .294 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AStockton Ports · 120 PAwOBA .382 → .311 (−70)K% 14.2% → 19.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	14.17%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	19.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.50%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.970	8.37%
HBP% /PA	1.67%	—	×0.780	—	×0.970	1.26%
Singles /BIP	29.27%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.965	×0.970	25.19%
Doubles /BIP	3.66%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.965	×0.970	2.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.965	×0.970	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.88%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.970	3.79%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.965.

Result: wOBA .382 → .311; ISO .152 → .122; BABIP .333 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 99 PAwOBA .349 → .304 (−45)K% 19.2% → 23.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.19%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	23.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.14%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.998	9.88%
HBP% /PA	1.01%	—	×0.870	—	×0.998	0.88%
Singles /BIP	24.62%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.050	×0.998	23.73%
Doubles /BIP	6.15%	÷1.000	×0.840	×1.050	×0.998	5.42%
Triples /BIP	3.08%	÷1.000	×0.940	×1.050	×0.998	3.03%
Home runs /BIP	1.54%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.998	1.23%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .349 → .304; ISO .131 → .118; BABIP .344 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AStockton Ports · 331 PAwOBA .330 → .259 (−72)K% 17.2% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.22%	÷1.011	×1.360	—	—	23.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.64%	÷1.029	×0.690	—	×0.980	12.90%
HBP% /PA	1.81%	—	×0.780	—	×0.980	1.39%
Singles /BIP	19.19%	÷1.003	×0.920	×1.001	×0.980	17.27%
Doubles /BIP	5.56%	÷0.990	×0.830	×1.001	×0.980	4.57%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.001	×0.980	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.03%	÷1.113	×0.800	—	×0.980	2.13%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .330 → .259; ISO .114 → .089; BABIP .251 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jack Hannahanlast yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,867 PA	2.8	1,867	29	6	232	315	348	+6	+29	6.2	6.2
/162	664	10	2	+2.0	+10.4	2.2	pk7: 6
#2Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Tim Bogar'93-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,710 PA	2.6	1,710	24	13	217*	284*	324*	+11	+37	2.1	2.9
/162	664	9	5	+4.2	+14.4	0.8	pk7: 4
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
/162	664	3	3	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.2	788	13	12	219	301	322	+8	+9	1.2	1.2
/162	664	11	10	+7.1	+7.6	1.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jared Sprague-Lott (OGILVIE)	25	35	30	45	60	215/302/310	95	269	3	5	22%	10%	77	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Corey Joyce 2024 · AAA	25	42	43→40	50	48	204/305/319	115	291	11	13	31%	10%	81	-0.1	217/305/313	96	303	8	15	29%	9%	79	-0.2	219/295/310	91	293	10	16	27%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Colt Sedbrook 2010 · AA	25	45→44	38→30	51→50	48	213/304/289	76	271	6	14	22%	8%	74	-0.6	204/298/276	72	260	5	12	22%	8%	69	-0.9	176/287/221	44	227	2	12	20%	8%	52	-1.2
✕Zach Humphreys 2023 · AA	25	45	43→40	49→50	52	221/304/327	106	290	11	12	26%	10%	82	-0.0	212/285/304	92	286	7	15	26%	9%	69	-0.9	198/271/277	78	269	5	16	26%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Jackson Brennan 2008 · A	25	43→41	42→40	47→50	47	208/298/311	103	280	9	10	27%	8%	77	-0.3	209/295/297	88	297	7	10	29%	9%	72	-0.7	165/280/182	17	263	0	6	32%	12%	40	-0.6
✕Daniel Lyons 2010 · A	25	43→47	40	51→50	49	206/289/302	96	264	7	15	23%	8%	70	-0.8	196/279/271	75	271	4	12	27%	9%	60	-1.6	170/265/220	50	242	2	11	27%	9%	42	-1.7
✕Lolo Sanchez 2024 · AA	25	43→45	41→45	47→55	51	209/284/300	91	248	10	13	20%	8%	68	-1.0	209/277/294	85	261	7	9	21%	8%	63	-1.3	179/250/227	48	230	0	3	20%	7%	34	-0.8
✕Maverick Handley 2023 · AA	25	40	45→40	50	45	199/284/317	118	274	12	12	31%	8%	73	-0.6	204/294/293	89	285	8	11	29%	9%	71	-0.8	194/286/264	70	270	4	8	27%	9%	60	-0.6
✕Danny Mendick 2019 · AA	25	42→47	43→45	46→50	47	210/273/321	111	251	11	13	21%	7%	68	-1.0	226/287/344	118	276	13	12	22%	7%	79	-0.2	237/296/342	105	299	11	4	23%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Anthony Seigler 2024 · AA	25	37→40	42→45	45→55	57	183/289/284	100	237	9	12	25%	12%	68	-1.0	214/304/334	120	266	10	22	22%	11%	84	+0.1	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Kramer Robertson 2021 · AAA	26	44→50	41→40	45→55	51	213/298/311	98	259	8	13	20%	9%	76	-0.4	210/303/310	100	271	9	19	24%	10%	78	-0.3	197/300/279	83	260	7	22	25%	10%	68	-0.9
✕Phil Avlas 2008 · AA	25	45	40	43→45	49	216/278/303	86	261	8	7	20%	8%	65	-1.2	225/274/309	84	274	6	9	19%	6%	65	-1.2	244/281/313	69	290	4	8	17%	5%	68	-0.4
✕Alsander Womack 2024 · AA	25	47	41→45	44→45	49	227/294/320	93	276	10	7	21%	8%	76	-0.4	218/278/305	87	281	8	10	24%	7%	66	-1.1	186/233/224	38	248	3	12	25%	5%	30	-0.9
✕Quincy McAfee 2022 · AA	24	42	43→45	48→45	50	206/300/320	113	269	10	10	25%	9%	79	-0.2	193/276/313	120	251	12	8	27%	8%	69	-0.9	178/260/298	120	224	14	8	26%	7%	57	-1.0
✕Bryan Lavastida 2024 · MLB	25	44	44→45	50→55	47	218/287/332	114	274	12	14	24%	8%	76	-0.4	223/290/335	112	284	11	23	24%	7%	78	-0.3	223/288/328	105	282	10	27	23%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2011 · AAA	25	42	40	50	46	204/282/299	95	268	8	9	25%	7%	68	-1.0	218/266/316	98	278	11	13	25%	5%	64	-1.3	219/256/297	79	272	10	12	23%	4%	52	-0.7
✕Juan Zabala 2024 · AA	25	43	41→40	50	43	211/273/309	98	286	9	16	29%	7%	65	-1.2	207/260/302	95	297	9	10	31%	6%	59	-1.7	186/233/256	70	271	7	4	32%	5%	35	-1.2
✕Nick Meyer 2022 · AAA	25	44	38→40	47→50	44	211/273/283	73	272	6	12	24%	6%	59	-1.6	216/289/308	92	281	9	15	25%	8%	72	-0.7	203/283/284	81	264	10	18	25%	9%	61	-0.7
✕Onix Vega 2024 · AAA	25	44	37→30	46→45	48	208/284/280	72	270	5	6	24%	8%	63	-1.3	200/267/277	77	255	6	7	23%	8%	56	-1.9	180/257/208	28	230	3	8	22%	9%	34	-0.9
✕Matt Scheffler 2023 · AA	25	46	39→40	51→50	49	216/302/304	89	298	7	11	28%	9%	76	-0.4	207/290/283	76	287	5	13	27%	9%	67	-1.1	171/264/213	42	244	2	14	28%	8%	40	-1.3
✕Andres Sosa 2023 · A	25	40	42→40	52→45	49	192/302/304	112	274	9	9	30%	10%	78	-0.3	199/288/291	92	288	7	7	31%	8%	68	-1.0	185/275/262	76	274	5	4	31%	7%	55	-0.7

Jared Sprague-Lott

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps