Kyle DeBarge

SS Wichita Wind Surge

Age 24 R/R 5'9" / 175 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1756ETA2030MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	AMIN	115	.235/.322/.343	1	15	46	—	.200/.270/.305
2025	22	A+MIN	543	.237/.349/.362	8	66	60	—	.196/.286/.292
2026	23	AA/INTL2 orgs	592	.233/.343/.373	14	46	68	—	.185/.265/.290
2027PROJMLE	24	MLBMIN	4	.199/.280/.301	0	0	66	-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	25	MLBMIN	60	.202/.283/.312	1	4	70	0.0
2029PROJ35% MLB	26	MLBMIN	107	.205/.285/.318	2	6	72	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$0.2M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Chase%77

BB%69

Speed69

K%41

Whiff%41

ISO40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 90%

CompsCooper Bowman (age 24) · Tyler Tolbert (age 24) · Jackson Loftin (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†66

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .280 / .301

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%9

BABIP277

ISO96

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	115	102	24	2	3	1	12	28	1	15	3	235	322	343	665	108	315	24	10	303	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	543	459	109	23	5	8	70	121	9	66	8	237	349	362	710	124	302	22	13	324	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA	Wichita Wind Surge	—	533	457	101	22	1	12	66	138	5	41	13	221	326	352	678	131	288	26	12	308	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	59	45	16	2	1	2	11	15	2	5	3	356	500	578	1.078	222	483	25	19	465	201	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	115	105	21	2	3	1	9	38	1	15	3	200	270	305	574	105	284	33	8	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	543	479	94	17	4	7	51	157	9	66	8	196	286	292	578	96	266	29	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	Wichita Wind Surge	—	533	476	88	18	1	10	47	168	5	41	13	185	265	290	555	105	255	32	9	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	115	105	21	2	3	1	9	38	1	15	3	200	270	305	574	105	303	33	8	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	115	102	24	2	3	1	12	28	1	15	3	235	322	343	665	108	315	24	10	303	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	543	479	94	17	4	7	51	157	9	66	8	196	286	292	578	96	273	29	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	543	459	109	23	5	8	70	121	9	66	8	237	349	362	710	124	302	22	13	324	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	592	526	97	20	1	11	53	187	7	46	16	184	268	289	557	105	260	32	9	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	592	502	117	24	2	14	77	153	7	46	16	233	343	373	716	139	305	26	13	324	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	115	104	21	2	3	1	9	38	1	15	3	202	270	308	577	106	284	33	8	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	543	478	94	17	4	7	51	157	9	66	8	197	286	293	579	96	266	29	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	592	527	97	20	1	11	53	187	7	46	16	184	268	288	556	104	255	32	9	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	115	104	21	2	3	1	9	38	1	15	3	202	270	308	577	106	284	33	8	236	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	543	478	94	17	4	7	51	157	9	66	8	197	286	293	579	96	266	29	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	592	527	97	20	1	11	53	187	7	46	16	184	268	288	556	104	255	32	9	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIN	2%	380	339	67	13	2	6	34	114	4	22	5	199	280	301	581	102	277	30	9	266	66	-15	+2	+0	+4	+8	0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIN	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	199	280	301	581	103	277	25	0	266	66	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	23%	260	231	47	9	1	5	24	77	3	15	3	202	283	311	595	109	278	30	9	271	70	-9	+2	+1	+3	+6	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	35%	305	271	56	11	1	6	28	89	3	18	4	205	285	317	603	113	278	29	9	274	72	-10	+2	+1	+3	+7	0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	40%	321	286	59	11	2	6	29	93	3	18	4	206	286	320	606	114	279	29	9	275	73	-10	+2	+1	+3	+7	0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	44%	328	292	60	12	1	6	30	95	3	17	4	206	286	320	606	114	278	29	9	275	72	-11	+2	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	45%	321	286	58	11	1	6	29	92	3	15	4	206	285	318	603	112	278	29	9	274	72	-11	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	45%	314	280	57	11	1	6	28	91	3	12	3	203	282	311	593	108	276	29	9	270	69	-12	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.2
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	23%	60	54	10	2	0	1	5	18	1	4	1	202	283	312	595	109	278	30	8	271	70	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	35%	107	95	20	4	1	2	10	31	1	6	1	205	285	318	603	113	278	29	9	275	72	-4	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	40%	130	116	24	5	1	2	12	38	1	7	2	206	286	320	606	114	279	29	9	276	73	-4	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	44%	144	129	27	5	1	3	13	42	1	7	2	206	286	320	606	114	279	29	9	276	72	-5	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	45%	143	128	27	5	1	3	13	41	1	7	2	206	285	319	604	113	278	29	9	275	72	-5	+1	-0	+2	+3	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	45%	142	127	27	5	1	3	13	41	1	5	1	203	282	311	593	108	276	29	9	270	69	-5	+1	-1	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	726	649	135	26	5	14	66	211	6	36	9	208	287	328	615	120	282	29	9	274	65	-25	+4	-0	+8	+16	0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	121	23	4	13	59	189	5	32	8	208	286	329	615	120	282	29	9	274	65	-22	+3	-0	+7	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3309	2943	586	111	16	57	300	982	37	234	52	199	281	306	587	107	275	30	9	264	65	-72	+11	+0	+22	+45	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	115	22	3	11	59	193	7	46	10	199	281	304	586	106	275	30	9	264	65	-23	+4	+0	+7	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAWichita Wind Surge · 533 PAwOBA .302 → .247 (−55)K% 25.9% → 31.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.89%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	31.59%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.38%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.027	8.90%
HBP% /PA	0.94%	—	×0.870	—	×1.027	0.84%
Singles /BIP	20.69%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.963	×1.027	18.83%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.840	×0.963	×1.027	5.73%
Triples /BIP	0.31%	÷1.000	×0.940	×0.963	×1.027	0.29%
Home runs /BIP	3.76%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.027	3.09%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .302 → .247; ISO .131 → .107; BABIP .288 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 543 PAwOBA .318 → .257 (−61)K% 22.3% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.28%	÷0.979	×1.270	—	—	28.90%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.89%	÷0.989	×0.710	—	×1.012	9.37%
HBP% /PA	1.66%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	1.33%
Singles /BIP	21.60%	÷0.990	×0.920	×0.985	×1.012	20.00%
Doubles /BIP	6.80%	÷1.088	×0.810	×0.985	×1.012	5.05%
Triples /BIP	1.48%	÷0.943	×0.850	×0.985	×1.012	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	2.37%	÷0.962	×0.800	—	×1.012	1.99%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 98, 2B 118, 3B 89, K 96, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .318 → .257; ISO .124 → .098; BABIP .302 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 115 PAwOBA .296 → .236 (−60)K% 24.3% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.35%	÷0.994	×1.360	—	—	33.32%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.43%	÷0.976	×0.690	—	×1.015	7.49%
HBP% /PA	0.87%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.69%
Singles /BIP	24.32%	÷1.096	×0.920	×1.045	×1.015	21.66%
Doubles /BIP	2.70%	÷1.019	×0.830	×1.045	×1.015	2.34%
Triples /BIP	4.05%	÷0.962	×0.910	×1.045	×1.015	4.07%
Home runs /BIP	1.35%	÷0.962	×0.800	—	×1.015	1.14%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 119, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .296 → .236; ISO .108 → .092; BABIP .315 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#2Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#3Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3
#4Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3
#5Enzo Hernandez'71-'78 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,612 PA	3.9	2,612	2	129	222*	281*	294*	+28	+4	1.6	1.9
/162	664	1	33	+7.0	+1.0	0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	1.1	730	13	37	206	282	318	+8	+2	0.7	0.7
/162	664	12	34	+7.1	+2.2	0.6	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kyle DeBarge (OGILVIE)	24	—	—	—	—	197/277/298	101	277	3	12	30%	9%	66	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Cooper Bowman 2024 · AA	24	41→44	44→45	62→60	45	204/283/324	119	284	12	37	31%	8%	73	-0.6	210/281/325	115	288	10	33	29%	8%	72	-0.7	209/280/324	115	279	10	37	27%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Tyler Tolbert 2022 · A	24	38→48	39→45	67→65	43	180/267/270	90	293	6	37	37%	9%	55	-1.9	204/263/301	97	291	6	38	30%	6%	59	-1.6	222/284/299	77	304	6	60	27%	6%	65	-0.6
✕Jackson Loftin 2024 · AAA	24	37→34	41→40	59→65	43	184/266/276	92	257	9	33	30%	8%	57	-1.8	184/252/281	97	272	9	26	34%	7%	52	-2.2	129/194/213	83	197	8	34	37%	6%	12	-2.0
✕Braulio Vasquez 2022 · A	23	41	40	55→65	40	193/274/284	91	302	8	31	36%	8%	61	-1.5	218/287/317	99	301	6	26	28%	7%	73	-0.6	227/297/325	98	303	3	32	24%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Wes Rogers 2019 · AA	25	45→51	39→40	59→65	42	216/267/304	87	290	6	32	27%	6%	61	-1.5	198/255/279	81	303	6	17	34%	7%	51	-2.2	161/226/226	65	269	3	12	38%	7%	27	-1.9
✕Jorge Mateo 2018 · AA	23	43→50	43→50	63→65	38	209/254/334	126	297	9	34	32%	5%	63	-1.3	206/247/327	121	303	9	24	33%	4%	59	-1.7	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Jayce Easley 2024 · AA	24	40→46	36→30	59→65	51	188/283/254	65	263	4	33	27%	10%	58	-1.7	184/261/244	60	291	4	21	34%	9%	47	-2.6	134/214/150	16	239	0	29	40%	8%	7	-2.0
✕Cam Eden 2022 · A	24	48→51	42→40	62→65	45	223/307/328	105	321	9	35	31%	8%	84	+0.1	207/278/305	98	312	9	42	34%	7%	68	-1.0	197/270/272	75	291	5	49	31%	7%	54	-1.1
✕Darren Ford 2010 · A	24	47→53	40→45	60→65	44	221/286/315	93	315	7	34	30%	8%	72	-0.7	225/277/321	96	307	7	33	27%	6%	69	-0.9	223/271/298	75	301	6	49	27%	6%	58	-0.8
✕Kenny Wilson 2014 · AA	24	46→51	39→40	57→60	43	218/285/304	86	302	5	28	28%	6%	69	-0.9	227/282/313	86	310	5	27	27%	6%	69	-0.9	198/266/289	91	302	7	22	34%	7%	56	-0.7
✕Adam Engel 2016 · A	24	42→48	39→50	61→60	39	203/256/288	84	292	6	33	31%	6%	54	-2.0	205/263/317	112	291	8	25	31%	6%	63	-1.3	223/282/358	135	299	13	23	29%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Johneshwy Fargas 2019 · A	24	44→53	42→40	58→65	40	216/266/314	98	274	10	35	25%	5%	63	-1.3	218/271/311	93	287	8	38	26%	5%	65	-1.2	200/257/288	88	269	9	46	28%	5%	53	-1.2
✕Ryan Bliss 2024 · AAA	24	45→51	46→50	59→60	44	224/286/356	132	289	12	32	26%	7%	81	-0.1	231/299/360	129	304	11	38	26%	8%	87	+0.4	223/291/342	119	294	9	40	25%	7%	79	-0.2
✕David Hamilton 2022 · AA	24	43	42→50	65→70	46	208/270/320	112	273	8	36	26%	8%	66	-1.1	211/279/332	121	278	12	50	27%	8%	73	-0.6	227/287/350	124	282	13	56	24%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Mike Antico 2023 · AA	25	41→43	44→45	62→60	45	204/273/324	120	272	11	36	28%	8%	70	-0.9	214/277/333	119	287	12	34	28%	7%	73	-0.6	215/279/331	115	289	12	35	28%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Jared Oliva 2020 · AA	24	48→49	41→45	57→65	43	228/291/334	105	307	8	27	27%	6%	78	-0.3	220/273/321	101	306	7	24	29%	5%	68	-1.0	221/286/346	125	277	12	55	24%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Tito Polo 2019 · AA	24	48→54	43→45	58→60	40	233/287/346	113	307	10	29	27%	5%	79	-0.2	223/272/325	102	292	8	20	25%	5%	68	-1.0	220/248/307	87	284	3	25	23%	3%	51	-0.5
✕Daniel Carroll 2013 · AA	24	47→49	45	58→60	43	224/303/347	123	334	13	31	34%	8%	86	+0.3	203/275/290	87	305	7	25	33%	6%	63	-1.4	178/253/245	67	277	4	28	34%	5%	43	-1.1
✕Duke Ellis 2023 · AA	25	43→47	40	60→80	38	207/262/293	86	312	8	37	35%	6%	57	-1.8	216/274/306	90	321	8	53	33%	7%	65	-1.2	238/288/332	95	331	8	94	29%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Mikey Perez 2023 · A	23	41→34	44→45	59→60	43	201/280/320	119	275	10	31	29%	7%	72	-0.7	196/276/308	112	286	12	26	33%	8%	68	-1.0	148/246/242	93	219	13	36	36%	8%	40	-1.2

Kyle DeBarge

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps