Jordan Valenzuela
P
ACL Padres
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 190 lbs
ROK
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 19 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 107
ERA4.72
FIP4.72
K%22.0%
BB%12.6%
K-BB%9.4%
ROS IP19
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 46 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Brown | 13 | 0 | 22 | 122 | 24 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 13.4% | 28.7% | -15.3% | 1.3% | 9.14 | 6.34 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Brown | 13 | 0 | 22 | 122 | 24 | 28 | 1 | 0% | 1.7 | 19.7% | 23.0% | -3.3% | 0.8% | 9.14 | 5.36 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Padres Brown | 14 | 2 | 31 | 150 | 34 | 28 | 0 | 14% | 2.2 | 15.4% | 23.3% | -7.9% | 0.0% | 8.22 | 4.75 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Padres Brown | 14 | 2 | 31 | 150 | 34 | 28 | 0 | 14% | 2.2 | 22.7% | 18.7% | 4.0% | 0.0% | 8.22 | 3.62 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 34 | 180 | 38 | 35 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 15.0% | 23.5% | -8.5% | 0.0% | 7.86 | 4.81 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 34 | 180 | 38 | 35 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.1% | 19.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% | 7.86 | 3.94 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 20 | 0 | 27 | 122 | 44 | 27 | 0 | 0% | 1.4 | 26.9% | 27.6% | -0.7% | 0.0% | 2.63 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | 18 | 0 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.0% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.0% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.72 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | SD | — | — | 46 | 202 | 62 | 37 | 2 | — | — | 30.5% | 18.3% | 12.1% | 1.1% | 3.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | SD | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.43 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.05 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 102 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 11.1% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 4.53 | 4.05 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 74 | 2 | 114 | 574 | 99 | 146 | 2 | 3% | 1.5 | 17.3% | 25.4% | -8.2% | 0.3% | 6.95 | 5.02 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 130 | 4 | 200 | 1007 | 174 | 256 | 3 | 3% | 1.5 | 17.3% | 25.4% | -8.2% | 0.3% | 6.95 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jordan Valenzuela (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 22.0% | 12.6% | 2.7% | — | 4.43 | 23.0% | 11.9% | 20 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Caleb Freeman R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.98 | 24.6% | 12.9% | 2.4% | .267 | 5.17 | 21.7% | 8.1% | 58 | +1.19 | 3.98 | 222 | 91 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.57 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.9% | .330 | 4.23 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.34 | 3.09 | 195 | 90 |
| Mason Fox R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 7.31 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.72 | 3.59 | 112 | 89 |
| Kyle Hinton R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.17 | 23.5% | 15.0% | 2.1% | .275 | 5.66 | 17.7% | -0.7% | 75 | +1.49 | 4.17 | 106 | 89 |
| Nolan Sparks R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.06 | 21.8% | 13.5% | 2.0% | .229 | 4.87 | 18.0% | 3.7% | 120 | +0.81 | 4.06 | 136 | 88 |
| Justin Meis R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.80 | 25.6% | 13.6% | 2.1% | .300 | 5.11 | 18.2% | 5.5% | 261 | +1.31 | 3.80 | 385 | 88 |
| Luis Alvarado R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.24 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 4.2% | .276 | 5.27 | 18.7% | 4.4% | 140 | +0.03 | 5.04 | 162 | 88 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.98 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .270 | 5.27 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.29 | 3.98 | 117 | 88 |
| Cole Gordon R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | .243 | 5.20 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.04 | 4.16 | 112 | 88 |
| Ty Tice R 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.29 | 22.2% | 12.9% | 2.6% | .271 | 3.48 | 19.4% | 8.3% | 108 | -0.81 | 3.24 | 288 | 87 |
| Samuel Carpio R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.32 | 21.2% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .300 | 5.71 | 21.2% | -4.8% | 90 | +1.39 | 4.32 | 112 | 87 |
| Brandyn Sittinger R 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.67 | 22.2% | 13.8% | 3.1% | .324 | 4.02 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 72 | -0.65 | 3.50 | 152 | 86 |
| Easton Sikorski R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 20.9% | 14.1% | 3.0% | .254 | 4.52 | 17.5% | 6.3% | 154 | -0.24 | 4.09 | 183 | 86 |
| Kasey Ford R 2028 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.68 | 20.3% | 14.5% | 2.6% | .310 | 4.31 | 21.9% | 5.8% | 98 | -0.37 | 2.53 | 114 | 86 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.13 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -1.03 | 2.74 | 367 | 86 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.65 | 22.7% | 15.7% | 2.7% | .263 | 5.67 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 56 | +1.02 | 3.32 | 124 | 86 |
| Sean Isaac R 2028 · 4.27 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.27 | 19.5% | 12.3% | 2.3% | .342 | 3.78 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 128 | -0.49 | 3.26 | 155 | 86 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.08 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.63 | 3.17 | 337 | 86 |
| Nic Enright R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.12 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.51 | 0.50 | 249 | 86 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.94 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.08 | 3.28 | 146 | 86 |