Jordan Valenzuela

Jordan Valenzuela P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150141vR 133

ERA6.13

FIP6.13

K%18.9%

BB%21.7%

K-BB%-2.7%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	13	0	22	122	24	28	1	0%	1.7	13.4%	28.7%	-15.3%	1.2%	9.14	6.28	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	13	0	22	122	24	28	1	0%	1.7	13.4%	28.7%	-15.3%	1.2%	9.14	6.28	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	13	0	22	122	24	28	1	0%	1.7	19.7%	23.0%	-3.3%	0.8%	9.14	5.36	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	14	2	31	150	34	28	0	14%	2.2	15.4%	23.3%	-7.9%	0.0%	8.22	4.75	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	14	2	31	150	34	28	0	14%	2.2	15.4%	23.3%	-7.9%	0.0%	8.22	4.75	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	14	2	31	150	34	28	0	14%	2.2	22.7%	18.7%	4.0%	0.0%	8.22	3.62	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	34	180	38	35	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	23.5%	-8.5%	0.0%	7.86	4.81	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	34	180	38	35	0	0%	1.3	15.0%	23.5%	-8.5%	0.0%	7.86	4.81	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	34	180	38	35	0	0%	1.3	21.1%	19.4%	1.7%	0.0%	7.86	3.94	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	35	0	47	215	70	43	2	0%	1.3	23.1%	24.2%	-1.1%	1.2%	4.63	4.88	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	35	0	47	215	70	43	2	0%	1.3	23.1%	24.2%	-1.1%	1.2%	4.63	4.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	SD	14	0	19	86	34	19	0	0%	1.4	39.5%	22.1%	17.4%	0.0%	2.84	2.56	—
2026	21	A RAW	SD	21	0	28	129	36	24	2	0%	1.3	27.9%	18.6%	9.3%	1.6%	5.86	3.95	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	SD	46	0	48	203	42	36	5	0%	1.0	20.6%	17.9%	2.7%	2.7%	5.67	5.49	-0.5
2028	23	MLB MLE	SD	47	0	50	210	45	32	6	0%	1.1	21.6%	15.3%	6.2%	2.7%	5.28	5.08	-0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	SD	23	0	24	101	21	18	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	17.9%	2.7%	2.7%	5.67	5.49	-0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	SD	34	0	36	152	33	23	4	0%	1.1	21.6%	15.3%	6.2%	2.7%	5.28	5.08	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	0	60	253	54	41	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	16.3%	4.8%	2.7%	5.43	4.86	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	137	23	0%	1.1	21.2%	16.3%	4.8%	2.7%	5.43	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		89	2	133	667	116	164	4	2%	1.5	17.4%	24.6%	-7.2%	0.6%	7.02	5.09	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		134	3	200	1000	174	247	6	2%	1.5	17.4%	24.6%	-7.2%	0.6%	7.02	5.09	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jordan Valenzuela (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.13	18.9%	21.7%	2.7%	—	5.28	21.1%	4.5%	98	-0.85	—	—	—
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	89
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	88
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	86
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	86
Bryce McGowan R 2022 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	17.0%	22.9%	2.4%	.368	4.36	20.6%	6.6%	145	-1.54	3.71	178	86
Greg Weissert R 2016 · 5.22 FIP	21	SU	5.22	19.4%	19.3%	2.4%	.382	3.80	23.0%	10.3%	126	-1.42	2.57	481	85
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	85
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	85
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	85
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.10	167	85
Madison Jeffrey R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SU	5.47	19.9%	25.3%	1.5%	.252	5.08	17.6%	-9.7%	107	-0.39	4.65	168	85
Edward Baram R 2019 · 5.05 FIP	22	SU	5.05	18.5%	22.7%	1.2%	.354	5.57	15.4%	0.5%	95	+0.52	5.05	119	84
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	84
Omar Ventura R 2018 · 5.82 FIP	21	SU	5.82	15.8%	21.6%	2.4%	.254	3.53	19.5%	3.1%	30	-2.29	3.53	125	84
Carlos Salazar R 2016 · 5.62 FIP	21	SU	5.62	22.7%	26.9%	1.9%	.282	5.37	22.3%	1.9%	48	-0.25	4.43	155	84
Zach Barnes R 2022 · 5.35 FIP	23	SU	5.35	18.2%	22.0%	1.8%	.378	5.03	14.9%	1.5%	119	-0.32	4.90	145	84
Samuel Fabian R 2023 · 6.61 FIP	20	SU	6.61	16.8%	27.4%	2.7%	.352	4.33	17.2%	4.8%	64	-2.28	4.21	120	84
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	83
Andrew Moore R 2021 · 6.58 FIP	21	SU	6.58	12.9%	21.8%	3.3%	.263	3.75	26.5%	8.4%	103	-2.83	3.44	207	83
Jairo Beras R 2017 · 6.07 FIP	22	SU	6.07	16.4%	16.9%	4.0%	.237	4.35	20.7%	4.5%	96	-1.72	3.48	110	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.6	39	20.7%	17.4%	1.04	5.58
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48