Jefferson Moran — OGILVIE

Jefferson Moran P Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 155 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%21.5%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%6.2%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	6	27	113	28	12	2	67%	3.0	16.8%	13.3%	3.6%	2.7%	4.33	4.82	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	6	27	113	28	12	2	67%	3.0	16.8%	13.3%	3.6%	2.7%	4.33	4.82	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	9	6	27	113	28	12	2	67%	3.0	24.8%	10.6%	14.2%	1.8%	4.33	3.32	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	7	34	148	32	14	3	78%	3.7	14.7%	11.8%	2.9%	2.2%	4.54	4.55	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	9	7	34	148	32	14	3	78%	3.7	14.7%	11.8%	2.9%	2.2%	4.54	4.55	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	9	7	34	148	32	14	3	78%	3.7	21.6%	9.5%	12.2%	2.0%	4.54	3.60	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	6	4	15	68	23	13	0	67%	2.4	23.0%	23.9%	-0.9%	0.0%	2.45	4.18	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	6	4	15	68	23	13	0	67%	2.4	23.0%	23.9%	-0.9%	0.0%	2.45	4.18	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	6	4	15	68	23	13	0	67%	2.4	33.8%	19.1%	14.7%	0.0%	2.45	2.62	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	7	5	21	90	26	14	2	71%	3.0	17.9%	20.9%	-3.0%	4.2%	3.80	6.54	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	7	5	21	90	26	14	2	71%	3.0	17.9%	20.9%	-3.0%	4.2%	3.80	6.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	STL	3	1	7	28	11	3	0	33%	2.4	39.3%	10.7%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.14	—
2026	22	A RAW	STL	4	4	14	62	15	11	2	100%	3.5	24.2%	17.7%	6.5%	3.2%	5.79	5.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	STL	6	6	31	133	30	18	4	100%	5.2	22.4%	13.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.85	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	STL	3	3	15	63	14	8	2	100%	5.0	22.4%	13.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.85	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	65	15	9	2	100%	5.1	22.4%	13.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.47	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	194	117	26	100%	5.3	22.4%	13.3%	9.1%	2.9%	4.96	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		31	22	97	419	73	68	10	71%	3.1	17.3%	16.1%	1.2%	2.4%	4.00	4.99	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	46	200	867	150	140	21	71%	3.1	17.3%	16.1%	1.2%	2.4%	4.00	4.99	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jefferson Moran (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	21.5%	15.3%	2.9%	—	4.85	22.4%	9.1%	31	-0.36	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	82
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	80
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	79
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	78
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	78
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	78
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	78
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	78
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	77
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	77
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	77
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	76
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	76
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	76
Carlos Lagrange R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	20	SP	4.34	22.1%	15.5%	2.1%	.291	3.97	25.4%	12.1%	198	-0.37	3.66	272	76