Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 55 | 240 | 59 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 1.7% | 3.46 | 3.65 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 0 | 55 | 240 | 59 | 23 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 24.6% | 9.6% | 15.0% | 1.2% | 3.46 | 2.92 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | 19 | 10 | 52 | 249 | 63 | 22 | 8 | 53% | 2.8 | 19.5% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 4.0% | 7.74 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | 10 | 10 | 57 | 241 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.73 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 109 | 490 | 110 | 47 | 15 | — | — | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 3.0% | 6.17 | 4.83 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.35 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 49 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 55 | 0 | 58 | 244 | 50 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIN | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIN | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 0 | 64 | 268 | 55 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.20 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 173 | 82 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.61 | 4.20 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 55 | 10 | 107 | 489 | 94 | 49 | 14 | 18% | 1.9 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 5.55 | 4.31 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 103 | 19 | 200 | 914 | 176 | 91 | 26 | 18% | 1.9 | 19.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 5.55 | 4.31 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ivran Romero (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.59 | 20.3% | 10.5% | 116 | -0.14 | — | — | — |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2027 · 4.19 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.19 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.43 | 18.4% | 2.3% | 111 | +0.24 | 3.87 | 192 | 89 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.65 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 3.2% | .289 | 3.44 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -1.21 | 1.94 | 143 | 89 |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 86 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.71 | 278 | 85 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.89 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .293 | 4.63 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.74 | 2.08 | 276 | 85 |
| Jimmy Kingsbury R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.09 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 4.1% | .304 | 3.92 | 17.8% | 9.2% | 166 | -1.17 | 3.59 | 307 | 84 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.86 | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.5% | .353 | 4.73 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 54 | +0.87 | 3.86 | 106 | 84 |
| T.J. Weir R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.08 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .319 | 3.46 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 190 | -0.62 | 3.21 | 349 | 84 |
| Carlo Reyes R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.26 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .318 | 3.98 | 24.1% | 12.9% | 61 | -0.28 | 2.79 | 229 | 84 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.06 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .311 | 4.48 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.63 | 281 | 83 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.92 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 2.2% | .263 | 5.66 | 16.1% | -1.3% | 133 | +1.74 | 3.39 | 281 | 83 |
| Nick Hull R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.79 | 19.0% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .296 | 4.83 | 18.7% | 8.3% | 87 | +0.04 | 3.93 | 268 | 83 |
| Diego Granado R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.26 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | .335 | 4.40 | 15.5% | 1.1% | 40 | -0.86 | 4.40 | 110 | 83 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 19.5% | 14.2% | 1.7% | .287 | 4.49 | 19.3% | 10.3% | 169 | +0.28 | 3.81 | 233 | 82 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2025 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.74 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.6% | .305 | 5.99 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +2.25 | 3.74 | 190 | 82 |
| Scott Burke R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 82 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 82 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.51 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.5% | .281 | 4.91 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.40 | 4.51 | 121 | 82 |
| Layne Somsen R 2028 · 3.72 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.72 | 19.5% | 12.5% | 1.3% | .265 | 4.04 | 19.9% | 6.7% | 92 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 154 | 82 |
| Conor Steinbaugh R 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.77 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 3.2% | .281 | 6.87 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 39 | +2.10 | 4.77 | 107 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 58 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 1.11 | 4.65 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |