Austin Newton — OGILVIE

Austin Newton P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 22 RHP 6'6" / 252 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.5 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.84

FIP4.84

K%19.4%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%8.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	28	19	111	505	91	48	14	68%	4.0	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.37	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	28	19	111	505	91	48	14	68%	4.0	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	COL	28	19	111	505	91	48	14	68%	4.0	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	2.8%	5.35	4.30	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	113	476	98	46	14	100%	5.9	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.0%	4.67	4.59	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	116	488	104	44	14	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.1%	12.2%	3.0%	4.53	4.45	+0.6
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	117	494	107	43	15	100%	5.8	21.7%	8.8%	12.9%	2.9%	4.43	4.37	+0.7
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	20	20	117	494	108	43	15	100%	5.8	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	2.9%	4.38	4.35	+0.8
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	115	486	107	43	15	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	3.0%	4.38	4.38	+0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	112	472	103	42	15	100%	5.9	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	3.1%	4.43	4.47	+0.6
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	107	451	97	41	15	100%	5.9	21.5%	9.2%	12.4%	3.2%	4.53	4.60	+0.4
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	100	423	90	40	15	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.4%	11.7%	3.4%	4.68	4.78	+0.1
2035	31	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	94	395	82	39	14	100%	5.8	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	3.7%	4.86	4.98	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	55	232	48	22	8	100%	6.1	20.6%	9.6%	11.0%	3.4%	4.92	4.84	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	14	14	81	342	73	31	12	100%	5.8	21.3%	9.1%	12.2%	3.4%	4.78	4.70	+0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	95	401	87	35	14	100%	5.9	21.7%	8.8%	12.9%	3.4%	4.68	4.62	+0.6
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	102	431	94	37	15	100%	6.0	21.9%	8.7%	13.2%	3.4%	4.63	4.60	+0.7
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	104	439	96	39	15	100%	6.1	21.9%	8.8%	13.1%	3.4%	4.63	4.63	+0.6
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	17	17	103	435	95	39	15	100%	6.1	21.8%	8.9%	12.9%	3.6%	4.69	4.73	+0.5
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	99	418	90	38	16	100%	6.2	21.5%	9.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.80	4.87	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	94	397	84	38	16	100%	5.9	21.2%	9.4%	11.7%	4.0%	4.97	5.07	+0.1
2035	31	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	89	376	78	37	16	100%	5.9	20.8%	9.8%	11.0%	4.2%	5.17	5.29	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		138	138	822	3471	745	316	126	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	3.6%	4.79	4.43	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	181	77	31	100%	6.0	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	3.6%	4.79	4.43	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		28	19	111	505	67	57	18	68%	4.0	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.37	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	910	121	102	33	68%	4.0	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.37	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Newton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.84	19.4%	10.5%	3.0%	—	4.47	21.2%	12.1%	345	-0.37	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	88
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	84
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	83
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	81
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	80
Luis Cohen R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	20	SP-	4.11	17.2%	11.4%	1.9%	.263	4.98	14.1%	3.9%	247	+0.87	3.00	333	79
Daniel Martinez R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP-	4.17	15.2%	10.4%	1.9%	.234	7.18	14.3%	1.0%	93	+3.01	3.41	242	79
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	79
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	79
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	79
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	79
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	79
Gus Varland R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SP-	4.29	19.6%	8.7%	3.2%	.294	5.73	18.1%	5.7%	105	+1.44	2.39	330	78
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	78
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	78
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.92	22.1%	6.6%	260	-0.02	4.21	412	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.0	101	21.4%	9.1%	1.21	4.54
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32