Austin Newton

P Fresno Grizzlies

Age 23 RHP 6'6" / 252 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#870ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	ACOL	28	19	111	5.35	4.40	18.0%	9.5%	—	K 13.3% · BB 11.2% · FIP 5.37
2027PROJ	23	MLBCOL	—	—	0	5.30	5.30	15.3%	11.0%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCOL	6	6	34	5.33	5.24	17.4%	10.1%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCOL	8	8	48	5.14	5.05	18.7%	9.5%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.7, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsJacob Meador (age 23) · Levi Thomas (age 23) · Nick Hull (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%15.3%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%4.3%

Proj IP78

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	28	19	111	505	91	48	14	68%	4.0	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.37	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	28	19	111	505	91	48	14	68%	4.0	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.37	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	28	19	111	505	91	48	14	68%	4.0	18.0%	9.5%	8.5%	2.8%	5.35	4.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.3%	11.0%	4.3%	3.1%	5.30	5.30	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	COL	14	14	80	336	59	34	10	100%	5.7	17.4%	10.1%	7.4%	3.1%	5.07	4.98	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	73	307	57	29	9	100%	6.0	18.7%	9.5%	9.2%	3.1%	4.88	4.79	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	COL	12	12	71	301	59	28	9	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	3.1%	4.77	4.71	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	69	291	57	27	9	100%	6.3	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	3.1%	4.74	4.74	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	COL	11	11	65	276	54	26	9	100%	5.9	19.4%	9.6%	9.8%	3.2%	4.79	4.82	+0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	COL	10	10	61	256	49	25	9	100%	6.1	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	3.4%	4.89	4.95	+0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	COL	9	9	55	232	44	23	8	100%	6.1	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	3.6%	5.03	5.13	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	COL	6	6	34	144	25	14	5	100%	5.7	17.4%	10.1%	7.4%	3.6%	5.33	5.24	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	48	203	38	19	7	100%	6.0	18.7%	9.5%	9.2%	3.5%	5.14	5.05	+0.3
2030	26	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	56	236	46	22	8	100%	6.2	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	3.5%	5.03	4.97	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	59	249	49	23	9	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.4%	10.1%	3.6%	5.00	5.00	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	COL	10	10	58	245	48	23	9	100%	5.8	19.4%	9.6%	9.8%	3.7%	5.06	5.09	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	COL	9	9	55	232	45	23	9	100%	6.1	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	3.9%	5.17	5.23	+0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	51	215	41	22	9	100%	6.4	18.8%	10.1%	8.7%	4.1%	5.33	5.43	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	361	1525	290	148	57	100%	5.9	19.0%	9.7%	9.4%	3.7%	5.14	4.75	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	161	82	32	100%	6.0	19.0%	9.7%	9.4%	3.7%	5.14	4.75	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		28	19	111	505	67	57	18	68%	4.0	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.37	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	34	200	910	121	102	33	68%	4.0	13.3%	11.2%	2.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.37	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 111 IPFIP 4.30 → 5.37 (+1.07)K% 18.0% → 13.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.02%	—	×0.740	13.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×1.180	11.22%
HR / BF /BF	2.77%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.60%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.30 → 5.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Austin Newton (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	15.3%	11.0%	3.1%	—	4.83	18.5%	8.8%	223	-0.47	—	—	—
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	89
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	87
Nick Hull R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	17.2%	12.1%	2.0%	.251	4.83	17.8%	6.5%	200	+0.57	4.26	292	87
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	87
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	86
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	86
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	85
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	85
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	85
Trenton Toplikar R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	14.8%	10.1%	2.2%	.248	5.39	16.5%	6.4%	123	+1.07	4.32	232	85
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	85
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	84
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	84
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	84
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	84
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	84
Cesar Gomez R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP-	4.11	14.0%	9.0%	1.9%	.364	4.88	16.1%	7.0%	196	+0.77	4.11	345	83
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	18.4%	9.9%	1.23	4.94
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Dan Miceli ('06)	3.5	64	20.6%	10.1%	1.19	4.48
Luis Vizcaino ('09)	2.7	68	21.0%	10.1%	1.30	4.33
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Jerry Don Gleaton ('79-'92, 2 WAR*)	2.2	64	19.4%*	10.2%*	1.05*	4.44*