Carson Kerce — OGILVIE

Carson KerceSS Visalia Rawhide

Age 22 R/R A HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 114 proj PA

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .290 / .321

PA114

HR2

K%27

BB%8

ISO108

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 46 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT46

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

DEFENSE47

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	21	A	Visalia Rawhide	—	115	95	28	6	0	2	17	22	3	7	1	295	417	421	838	126	366	19	15	383	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	115	100	25	5	0	2	12	30	3	7	1	250	348	360	708	110	327	26	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	115	100	25	5	0	2	12	30	3	7	1	250	348	360	708	110	338	26	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	—	115	95	28	6	0	2	17	22	3	7	1	295	417	421	838	126	366	19	15	383	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	115	99	25	5	0	2	12	30	3	7	1	253	348	364	711	111	327	26	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	21	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	—	115	99	25	5	0	2	12	30	3	7	1	253	348	364	711	111	327	26	10	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	225	201	44	8	1	4	19	61	3	5	1	216	293	324	617	108	287	27	8	280	76	-6	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	199	178	39	7	1	4	17	54	2	4	1	219	295	331	626	112	288	27	9	284	78	-5	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	ARI	46%	306	273	61	11	2	6	26	81	4	6	1	221	297	337	634	116	289	26	8	287	80	-7	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	371	331	73	13	2	7	32	98	5	7	1	222	299	341	640	119	289	26	9	289	82	-8	+1	-0	+4	+8	0.5
2031	26	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	413	370	83	15	2	9	35	108	5	8	2	223	300	344	644	121	289	26	8	291	83	-8	+1	-0	+4	+9	0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	431	386	86	16	2	9	37	113	5	8	2	224	300	345	645	121	289	26	9	291	83	-9	+1	-0	+5	+9	0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	ARI	58%	440	394	88	16	2	9	38	116	5	8	2	222	298	340	638	119	288	26	9	289	81	-10	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.4
2034	29	MLB MLE	ARI	60%	438	393	86	16	2	8	37	117	5	7	2	220	295	335	630	115	287	27	8	285	79	-11	+1	-2	+5	+9	0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	ARI	62%	433	389	84	15	2	8	36	117	5	7	2	217	292	327	619	110	285	27	8	281	76	-12	+1	-3	+5	+9	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	68	61	13	3	0	1	6	18	1	1	0	225	301	341	642	117	298	26	9	290	78	-2	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	ARI	46%	141	126	30	6	1	3	12	38	2	3	1	227	303	347	650	120	299	27	9	293	80	-3	+0	-0	+2	+3	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	192	172	40	8	1	4	16	51	2	4	1	228	304	351	655	123	299	27	8	295	82	-4	+0	-0	+2	+4	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	224	200	45	9	1	4	19	59	3	4	1	229	305	354	659	125	299	26	8	297	83	-5	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	234	209	48	10	1	5	20	61	3	5	1	230	305	355	660	125	299	26	9	297	83	-5	+1	-0	+3	+5	0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	ARI	58%	257	230	52	10	1	5	22	68	3	5	1	228	303	350	653	122	298	26	9	295	81	-6	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	ARI	60%	265	237	53	11	1	5	23	70	3	4	1	225	300	344	645	119	296	26	9	291	79	-7	+0	-1	+3	+6	0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	ARI	62%	268	240	54	11	1	5	23	72	3	4	1	222	297	337	634	114	295	27	9	287	76	-8	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1649	1475	335	68	7	32	141	437	20	30	7	227	303	348	651	121	299	27	9	293	81	-38	+3	-4	+18	+36	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	133	27	3	13	56	172	8	12	3	229	305	353	658	124	301	26	9	293	81	-15	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3260	2916	648	118	16	64	280	865	40	64	14	222	299	340	639	117	292	27	9	288	81	-73	+6	-8	+34	+68	2.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	130	24	3	13	56	172	8	13	3	224	301	343	643	119	293	26	9	288	81	-15	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#2Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.7	1,762	35	33	222	294	339	+19	-6	2.9	2.8
/162	664	13	12	+7.1	-2.2	1.1	pk7: 3
#4Jason Phillipslast yr '07 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,508 PA	2.3	1,508	29	0	248	314	368	+11	-10	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	0	+4.7	-4.4	1.2	pk7: 3
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carson Kerce (OGILVIE)	22	30→46	40	60→51	55	214/290/321	107	287	2	2	27%	8%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alexander Campos 2022 · A	22	43	42→40	46→45	49	206/292/311	105	279	9	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	222/303/310	88	316	7	6	29%	9%	78	-0.3	239/331/311	72	336	7	6	28%	11%	86	+0.1
✕Juan Mora 2022 · A	22	44	42→45	55	47	215/295/325	110	284	9	14	26%	8%	78	-0.3	222/280/325	103	297	9	9	27%	6%	72	-0.7	218/275/319	102	286	9	8	26%	5%	67	-0.5
✕Christopher Bostick 2015 · A	22	43→53	44→45	52→55	40	213/267/336	123	296	11	15	31%	6%	69	-0.9	229/277/342	113	302	9	14	26%	5%	74	-0.6	245/298/359	114	318	9	7	25%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Jeferson Morales 2021 · A	22	42→47	40→45	47→50	52	201/291/303	102	246	6	8	20%	9%	72	-0.7	201/282/330	129	264	13	9	28%	8%	75	-0.5	222/297/349	127	274	11	8	22%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Christian Cairo 2023 · A	22	40→49	39→40	53→60	50	187/295/270	83	292	6	16	34%	11%	67	-1.1	210/302/291	81	303	5	23	29%	10%	73	-0.6	219/314/286	67	298	3	31	25%	10%	75	-0.4
✕Jack Brannigan 2023 · A	22	42	43→50	48→50	43	204/277/310	106	298	11	13	33%	8%	68	-1.0	202/279/357	155	294	19	17	36%	8%	80	-0.2	186/267/343	157	262	20	18	36%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Ethan Murray 2022 · A	22	43→50	42→40	50	46	209/279/313	104	281	9	8	28%	8%	69	-0.9	198/268/292	94	290	7	12	31%	8%	60	-1.6	199/276/286	87	286	6	13	30%	8%	59	-1.0
✕Nick Goodwin 2024 · A	22	45→46	42→45	49→45	44	214/297/327	113	289	9	9	28%	7%	80	-0.2	190/264/304	114	260	12	7	30%	7%	61	-1.5	187/265/309	122	249	13	6	29%	8%	61	-1.0
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2022 · A	22	43→53	42→45	48→50	38	212/259/315	102	290	9	9	29%	5%	61	-1.5	246/301/343	97	334	9	12	27%	7%	83	+0.1	251/312/338	87	342	8	12	27%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Cayden Wallace 2024 · AA	22	45→49	44→50	53→50	45	220/280/345	125	285	10	13	26%	7%	76	-0.4	226/279/351	125	289	12	13	25%	6%	77	-0.3	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Ramon Santana 2008 · A	22	41→51	40→45	48→45	47	198/282/296	98	266	7	7	27%	8%	67	-1.1	209/273/316	107	317	9	8	35%	6%	68	-1.0	207/270/313	107	315	7	4	34%	6%	62	-0.6
✕Graysen Tarlow 2024 · A	23	45	43→30	49→40	50	217/307/331	113	283	10	8	25%	9%	84	+0.1	211/291/285	74	299	6	6	29%	8%	68	-1.0	224/307/292	68	313	6	7	28%	8%	76	-0.1
✕Francisco Acuna 2022 · A	22	38→47	39→45	48→50	45	184/277/270	87	267	6	10	31%	8%	60	-1.6	204/274/301	97	277	7	11	27%	6%	65	-1.2	213/284/310	97	279	9	16	25%	7%	68	-0.5
✕Gilberto Celestino 2021 · A	22	47→53	42→45	47→55	45	227/280/331	104	284	9	10	23%	6%	73	-0.6	229/300/329	100	298	8	8	24%	8%	80	-0.2	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Jared Serna 2024 · A	22	45→48	45	53→50	45	226/284/352	126	276	13	18	23%	7%	79	-0.2	214/271/321	107	261	11	15	22%	6%	68	-1.0	202/265/300	97	245	10	16	21%	6%	58	-1.4
✕Corey Joyce 2021 · A	22	45	40	50	39	212/268/307	95	312	8	8	33%	6%	63	-1.4	203/292/311	108	294	11	12	32%	9%	74	-0.5	214/316/317	103	300	9	14	28%	10%	82	+0.0
✕Zack Short 2018 · A	23	42→39	45→50	48→45	53	209/300/336	128	267	12	11	25%	10%	82	+0.0	201/292/339	138	285	13	8	31%	10%	80	-0.1	178/280/321	143	246	16	6	32%	11%	70	-0.6
✕José Caballero 2019 · A	22	47→45	43→45	47→70	45	231/292/348	117	278	10	9	21%	6%	81	-0.1	219/292/328	109	283	9	26	25%	8%	78	-0.3	226/318/339	113	301	10	63	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Max George 2018 · A	22	39	42→45	50→55	45	195/270/303	109	255	9	15	27%	7%	64	-1.3	188/271/296	108	261	10	20	30%	7%	63	-1.4	145/250/272	127	214	15	25	38%	9%	49	-1.2
✕Carter Jurica 2012 · A	23	43→53	42→40	48→45	46	209/285/313	104	278	9	11	27%	8%	72	-0.7	231/291/314	83	306	6	6	25%	7%	73	-0.6	237/295/311	74	312	5	4	24%	7%	71	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps