Deivi Villafana

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 175 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.0 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTFG #895MiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ROKCIN	5	0	9	4.15	1.37	24.3%	2.7%	—	K 24.3% · BB 2.7% · FIP 1.39
2025	22	ROKCIN	12	8	47	6.56	2.99	18.5%	4.0%	—	K 12.6% · BB 5.0% · FIP 3.75
2026	23	MIX2 levels	24	18	99	5.80	3.65	21.3%	6.6%	—	K 16.0% · BB 7.7% · FIP 4.62
2027PROJ	24	MLBCIN	12	12	67	4.66	4.66	16.8%	7.0%	0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCIN	7	7	39	4.69	4.65	18.4%	6.9%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCIN	10	10	60	4.61	4.57	19.3%	7.0%	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$2M2033Arb-3$4M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control55Command50FB velo52

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsNick Payero (age 24) · Ricky Castro (age 24) · Angel Araiza (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%16.8%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%9.8%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL—55

CMD4050

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	5	0	9	37	9	1	0	0%	1.7	24.3%	2.7%	21.6%	0.0%	4.15	1.39	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	5	0	9	37	9	1	0	0%	1.7	24.3%	2.7%	21.6%	0.0%	4.15	1.39	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	5	0	9	37	9	1	0	0%	1.7	24.3%	2.7%	21.6%	0.0%	4.15	1.37	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	8	47	227	42	9	4	67%	3.9	12.6%	5.0%	7.6%	2.0%	6.56	3.75	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	8	47	227	42	9	4	67%	3.9	12.6%	5.0%	7.6%	2.0%	6.56	3.75	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	8	47	227	42	9	4	67%	3.9	18.5%	4.0%	14.5%	1.8%	6.56	2.99	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	99	442	94	29	12	75%	4.1	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	3.5%	5.80	4.62	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	18	99	442	94	29	12	75%	4.1	16.0%	7.7%	8.3%	3.5%	5.80	4.62	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	18	99	442	94	29	12	75%	4.1	21.3%	6.6%	14.7%	2.7%	5.80	3.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CIN	12	12	67	283	48	20	9	100%	5.6	16.8%	7.0%	9.8%	3.1%	4.66	4.66	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	90	382	70	27	12	100%	6.0	18.4%	6.9%	11.4%	3.1%	4.55	4.51	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	90	382	74	27	12	100%	6.0	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.1%	4.47	4.43	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	CIN	15	15	89	376	73	27	12	100%	5.9	19.4%	7.1%	12.3%	3.1%	4.46	4.46	+0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	86	365	71	26	12	100%	6.2	19.3%	7.2%	12.1%	3.2%	4.51	4.54	+0.4
2032	29	MLB MLE	CIN	14	14	82	348	66	26	12	100%	5.9	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	3.4%	4.61	4.67	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	CIN	13	13	78	327	68	23	12	100%	6.0	20.7%	7.0%	13.8%	3.6%	4.59	4.58	+0.3
2034	31	MLB MLE	CIN	12	12	72	305	62	22	12	100%	6.0	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	3.8%	4.70	4.78	+0.1
2035	32	MLB MLE	CIN	11	11	67	282	56	22	11	100%	6.1	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	4.1%	4.88	5.01	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	39	165	30	11	6	100%	5.6	18.4%	6.9%	11.4%	3.3%	4.69	4.65	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	60	253	49	18	8	100%	6.0	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.3%	4.61	4.57	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	69	291	56	21	10	100%	5.8	19.4%	7.1%	12.3%	3.4%	4.60	4.60	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	73	308	60	22	11	100%	6.1	19.3%	7.2%	12.1%	3.5%	4.65	4.68	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	72	304	58	23	11	100%	6.0	19.1%	7.5%	11.6%	3.7%	4.76	4.82	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	CIN	12	12	70	296	61	21	11	100%	5.8	20.7%	7.0%	13.8%	3.9%	4.75	4.74	+0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	CIN	11	11	66	279	57	20	11	100%	6.0	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	4.1%	4.87	4.95	+0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	CIN	10	10	62	262	52	20	11	100%	6.2	19.9%	7.7%	12.2%	4.4%	5.06	5.19	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		85	85	510	2153	422	156	80	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.75	4.40	+3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	165	61	31	100%	6.0	19.6%	7.2%	12.4%	3.7%	4.75	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		41	26	155	706	108	46	20	63%	3.8	15.3%	6.5%	8.8%	2.8%	5.94	4.17	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	34	200	913	140	60	26	63%	3.8	15.3%	6.5%	8.8%	2.8%	5.94	4.17	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Deivi Villafana (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	16.8%	7.0%	3.1%	—	4.47	19.0%	12.0%	270	-0.19	—	—	—
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	95
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	89
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	88
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	87
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	87
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	86
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	86
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	85
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	85
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	85
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	84
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	84
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	84
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	83
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	82
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	80	19.3%	7.2%	1.30	4.59
Ron Taylor ('62-'72, 3 WAR*)	4.0	80	17.8%*	6.8%*	1.26*	4.74*
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Andriese ('24)	2.6	74	21.8%	6.7%	1.36	4.65
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*
Claude Raymond ('59-'71, 0 WAR*)	3.6	66	20.9%*	7.9%*	1.34*	4.45*