Tony Santa Maria

Tony Santa Maria3B Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 24 R/R 5'11" / 195 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION304 act + 202 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .314 / .347

PA202

HR4

SB14

K%27

BB%9

BABIP304

ISO118

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 41

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER41

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED71

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$8M	+$7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-2	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$4M		$17M	+$15M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	63	14	4	0	2	2	26	3	3	1	222	279	381	660	159	333	38	3	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	62	17	6	0	2	3	20	3	3	1	274	338	468	806	194	366	29	4	352	128	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	24	A+	TB	—	304	263	63	9	0	6	31	83	9	37	5	240	340	342	682	103	326	27	10	302	89	-4	+5	+0	+1	+9	1.2
YTD	24	A+	TB	—	304	248	69	11	0	7	46	63	9	37	5	278	409	407	816	129	346	21	15	374	144	+15	+5	+0	+1	+9	3.1
ROS	24	A+	TB	0%	202	178	41	7	1	4	18	54	4	14	2	229	314	347	661	118	298	27	9	297	85	-3	+2	+0	+1	+6	0.5
ROS	24	MLB	TB	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						301	0	0	282	74	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
FULL	24	A+	TB	—	305	264	63	9	0	6	31	83	9	37	5	239	339	341	680	102	324	27	10	302	89	-4	+5	+0	+1	+9	1.2
TOT	24	A+	TB	—	506	441	104	16	1	10	49	137	13	51	7	235	330	344	674	109	317	27	10	300	88	-7	+7	+0	+2	+14	1.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	25	MLB	TB	30%	523	463	106	18	2	11	46	138	9	26	4	229	311	348	659	119	297	26	9	297	86	-8	+4	+0	+2	+15	1.2
2028	26	MLB	TB	44%	537	476	110	19	2	12	47	140	9	26	4	231	312	355	667	124	297	26	9	300	88	-7	+4	+0	+2	+15	1.4
2029	27	MLB	TB	49%	542	480	110	19	2	12	48	141	9	27	4	229	311	352	663	123	296	26	9	301	89	-7	+4	+0	+2	+15	1.4
2030	28	MLB	TB	52%	541	479	110	19	2	12	48	141	9	25	4	230	312	353	664	123	296	26	9	301	88	-7	+3	-1	+2	+15	1.3
2031	29	MLB	TB	51%	536	474	109	19	2	12	48	140	9	23	4	230	313	354	667	124	295	26	9	299	87	-8	+3	-1	+2	+15	1.1
2032	30	MLB	TB	51%	530	468	105	18	1	11	48	140	9	21	3	224	309	338	646	113	293	26	9	296	84	-9	+3	-2	+2	+15	0.9
2033	31	MLB	TB	51%	522	461	103	18	1	11	47	140	9	18	3	223	308	338	646	115	291	27	9	291	81	-11	+2	-3	+2	+15	0.5
2034	32	MLB	TB	51%	513	454	99	17	1	10	46	139	8	14	2	218	301	326	627	108	287	27	9	286	77	-13	+2	-4	+2	+15	0.1
2035	33	MLB	TB	51%	443	393	83	14	1	8	40	123	7	10	2	211	295	313	608	102	283	28	9	279	72	-14	+1	-4	+2	+13	-0.3
2027	25	MLB	TB	30%	159	141	32	5	1	3	14	42	3	8	1	227	310	340	651	113	301	26	9	285	76	-4	+1	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2028	26	MLB	TB	44%	238	211	49	8	1	5	21	62	4	12	2	232	314	351	664	118	300	26	9	288	78	-6	+2	+0	+1	+7	0.3
2029	27	MLB	TB	49%	266	235	55	9	1	6	24	69	5	13	2	234	318	357	676	123	300	26	9	289	80	-6	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.4
2030	28	MLB	TB	52%	279	247	57	10	1	6	25	73	5	13	2	231	314	352	666	121	299	26	9	289	79	-7	+2	-0	+1	+8	0.4
2031	29	MLB	TB	51%	276	244	57	10	1	6	25	72	5	12	2	234	318	357	674	123	298	26	9	287	78	-7	+2	-1	+1	+8	0.3
2032	30	MLB	TB	51%	273	241	55	9	1	6	25	72	5	11	2	228	314	349	662	120	297	26	9	284	76	-8	+1	-1	+1	+8	0.2
2033	31	MLB	TB	51%	269	239	53	9	1	5	24	72	4	9	2	222	303	331	634	109	294	27	9	280	72	-8	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.0
2034	32	MLB	TB	51%	264	234	51	8	1	5	24	72	4	7	1	218	302	325	626	107	291	27	9	275	68	-9	+1	-2	+1	+7	-0.2
2035	33	MLB	TB	51%	228	202	44	7	1	4	20	63	4	5	1	218	301	322	623	104	286	28	9	268	63	-9	+1	-2	+1	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2253	1995	453	75	9	46	202	597	39	90	15	227	310	343	653	116	299	26	9	283	75	-65	+12	-8	+8	+64	1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	131	22	3	13	58	172	11	26	4	227	310	344	654	116	299	26	9	283	75	-19	+4	-2	+2	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	4958	4389	990	172	15	105	438	1322	85	207	33	226	308	343	651	118	296	27	9	294	84	-92	+28	-15	+18	+140	8.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	130	23	2	14	57	173	11	27	4	226	307	346	654	120	296	27	9	294	84	-12	+4	-2	+2	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	62	17	6	0	2	3	20	3	3	1	274	338	468	806	194	366	29	4	352	128	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Drew Stubbslast yr '16 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,143 PA	8	3,143	92	161	244	314	394	+3	+16	12.2	12.3
	/162	664	19	34	244	314	394	+0.6	+3.3	2.6	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#4Desi Relafordlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA	6	2,443	34	64	246	329	356	-1	-7	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	9	17	246	329	356	-0.3	-1.8	1.4	pk7: 5
#5Everth Cabreralast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,059 PA	6	2,059	12	136	247	316	328	+22	-1	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	4	44	247	316	328	+7.1	-0.5	1.6	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	2,251	47	90	226	305	343	+8	+2	3.7	3.7
	/162	664	14	26	226	305	343	+2.4	+0.6	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tony Santa Maria (OGILVIE)	24	36	41	71	52	235/330/344	109	317	10	51	27%	10%	88	+1.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Anthony Norman 2009 · A	24	47→42	47→50	62→55	52	231/311/376	145	274	13	24	21%	9%	95	+1.4	218/293/352	134	280	12	14	25%	8%	81	+0.4	210/282/335	125	290	10	9	29%	7%	71	-0.1
✕Adalberto Santos 2012 · A	24	49→53	42→45	60→55	48	238/296/355	118	285	8	21	19%	7%	82	+0.5	249/310/347	98	316	7	20	22%	7%	85	+0.7	253/316/343	90	328	6	21	23%	8%	84	+0.3
✕Justin Dean 2021 · A	24	47→49	43→45	58→65	44	222/293/335	113	314	10	23	31%	8%	76	+0.1	203/280/315	112	322	11	27	37%	8%	66	-0.6	232/303/321	89	344	6	48	32%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Corey Toups 2017 · AA	24	46→49	44→45	56→50	42	225/284/353	127	299	10	17	27%	6%	77	+0.1	204/263/312	108	308	10	15	35%	6%	58	-1.2	184/246/278	94	290	9	16	37%	6%	39	-1.5
✕Ryan Cordell 2016 · AA	24	46→42	48→50	55→50	40	231/277/375	145	296	16	15	28%	5%	80	+0.4	213/258/354	141	278	16	14	29%	5%	66	-0.6	198/242/334	136	256	16	14	29%	5%	53	-0.8
✕Tim Tawa 2022 · A	23	44	47→50	58→50	45	221/288/362	141	302	14	18	31%	8%	81	+0.4	208/272/332	124	270	14	11	27%	8%	66	-0.6	216/281/385	169	263	20	13	26%	7%	83	+0.3
✕Cody Cipriano 2009 · A	24	40→48	45	55→45	46	199/274/329	130	265	11	12	28%	8%	67	-0.5	219/289/330	111	313	8	8	30%	8%	73	-0.1	224/298/330	106	321	7	7	30%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Dylan Moore 2017 · A	24	44→47	43→50	55→65	47	214/294/334	120	273	10	23	24%	8%	77	+0.1	206/272/327	121	267	11	18	26%	7%	66	-0.6	210/332/386	176	289	16	41	30%	12%	104	+1.0
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA	23	39→43	48→50	57→55	46	198/276/341	142	266	15	19	30%	9%	71	-0.3	217/288/368	151	280	17	17	28%	8%	83	+0.6	218/288/372	154	276	19	17	27%	8%	81	+0.3
✕Chase d'Arnaud 2011 · AA	24	47→50	42→45	57→60	47	228/297/347	118	282	8	22	21%	7%	81	+0.4	219/270/323	104	279	7	30	23%	6%	63	-0.9	234/297/356	122	296	11	26	24%	7%	80	+0.2
✕Michael Guldberg 2022 · A	23	45	44→45	55	45	223/293/342	119	282	12	16	24%	7%	79	+0.3	210/268/294	84	282	6	12	26%	6%	55	-1.4	194/247/254	61	264	3	10	27%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Tyler Saladino 2013 · AAA	24	44→47	42→45	54→55	47	215/290/326	112	285	9	19	27%	8%	73	-0.1	223/284/319	96	286	8	23	24%	7%	68	-0.5	256/300/368	112	305	11	25	19%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Jared Oliva 2020 · AA	24	46→45	43→50	57→65	42	221/284/333	112	302	10	27	29%	6%	72	-0.2	215/268/322	107	303	8	24	30%	5%	62	-0.9	227/296/370	142	284	15	55	24%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Anthony Jackson 2008 · A	24	43→53	41→40	61→55	42	209/264/315	106	286	6	19	28%	6%	58	-1.2	230/284/308	78	295	4	25	22%	6%	64	-0.8	255/321/326	71	317	4	28	19%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Phillip Ervin 2015 · A	23	44→50	43→50	57→55	44	214/268/338	124	268	9	16	23%	6%	66	-0.6	212/284/333	121	266	12	24	24%	8%	72	-0.2	232/296/372	140	294	14	21	25%	7%	84	+0.5
✕River Town 2023 · A	24	39→36	44→40	55→50	44	196/275/315	119	256	11	15	27%	7%	64	-0.8	212/300/304	92	266	8	14	22%	9%	72	-0.2	211/311/283	71	261	6	15	19%	10%	69	-0.2
✕Kaden Polcovich 2023 · AA	24	41	46→45	55	45	205/283/337	131	276	14	16	30%	8%	73	-0.1	203/285/327	124	281	12	18	30%	9%	72	-0.2	177/272/296	119	247	11	23	31%	10%	56	-0.5
✕Sean Jamieson 2013 · A	24	41→43	44→45	53→50	47	202/276/321	119	252	11	15	24%	8%	66	-0.6	223/280/337	114	297	10	10	27%	6%	71	-0.3	229/285/338	109	310	9	9	28%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Ryan Leonards 2015 · A	24	47	40	56→50	43	224/280/314	90	282	7	12	22%	6%	65	-0.7	220/281/301	81	284	5	9	23%	6%	62	-0.9	215/280/285	69	278	3	8	22%	7%	54	-0.6
✕Ryan Klosterman 2006 · A	24	40→45	44→45	55	46	201/272/321	120	256	11	17	26%	8%	64	-0.8	207/272/323	116	273	11	18	27%	7%	65	-0.7	206/273/310	105	273	10	14	27%	8%	59	-0.5