Tony Santa Maria

3B Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 25 R/R 5'11" / 195 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1331ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	23	A+TB	69	.274/.338/.468	2	3	65	—	.206/.265/.365
2026	24	AAA/A+TB	488	.280/.403/.439	15	58	88	—	.233/.323/.361
2027PROJMLE	25	MLBTB	1	.224/.305/.354	0	0	87	0.0
2028PROJ38% MLB	26	MLBTB	96	.225/.306/.356	2	4	88	0.2
2029PROJ52% MLB	27	MLBTB	147	.225/.305/.356	4	6	88	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

BB%80

Z-Con%75

Chase%74

Speed66

Whiff%53

K%44

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsMax Schuemann (age 26) · Ryan Bliss (age 24) · José Caballero (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†87

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .305 / .354

PA1

HR0

K%26

BB%8

BABIP284

ISO134

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 38 / POW 46

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT38

scouting grade only

POWER46

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED71

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	23	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	62	17	6	0	2	3	20	3	3	1	274	338	468	806	194	366	29	4	352	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA	Durham Bulls	—	50	42	8	2	0	1	7	12	1	3	1	190	320	310	630	119	241	24	14	296	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	438	361	105	17	0	14	59	89	16	55	8	291	413	454	867	163	350	20	13	390	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	63	13	4	0	2	2	26	3	3	1	206	265	365	630	159	295	38	3	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	—	50	44	8	2	0	1	5	14	1	3	1	182	280	295	575	114	226	28	10	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	438	385	92	14	0	12	35	117	16	55	8	239	328	369	697	130	301	27	8	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	63	13	4	0	2	2	26	3	3	1	206	265	365	630	159	306	38	3	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	62	17	6	0	2	3	20	3	3	1	274	338	468	806	194	366	29	4	352	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	488	429	99	15	0	13	40	131	17	58	9	231	321	357	678	126	300	27	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	488	403	113	19	0	15	66	101	17	58	9	280	403	439	842	159	339	21	14	380	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	64	13	4	0	2	2	26	3	3	1	203	265	359	624	156	295	38	3	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	488	428	99	15	0	13	40	131	17	58	9	231	321	357	678	126	293	27	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	23	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	69	64	13	4	0	2	2	26	3	3	1	203	265	359	624	156	295	38	3	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	488	428	99	15	0	13	40	131	17	58	9	231	321	357	678	126	293	27	8	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	TB	0%	380	338	76	14	1	10	31	98	8	16	3	222	304	355	659	133	281	26	8	297	87	-6	+2	+0	+1	+8	0.5
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	TB	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	224	305	354	659	130	284	0	0	298	87	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	TB	38%	254	226	50	9	1	6	21	65	5	11	2	223	304	358	662	134	281	26	8	299	88	-4	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	TB	52%	281	250	55	10	1	7	23	72	6	12	2	223	304	357	661	134	281	26	8	298	88	-4	+2	+0	+1	+6	0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	TB	60%	297	264	59	11	1	7	25	76	6	11	2	222	303	355	658	133	280	26	8	297	87	-5	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	TB	62%	296	264	58	11	1	7	25	76	5	9	2	221	301	351	652	130	279	26	8	294	85	-5	+1	-1	+1	+6	0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	TB	63%	294	263	58	11	1	7	24	76	5	8	2	219	298	346	643	127	277	26	8	291	83	-6	+1	-2	+1	+6	0.0
2028	26	MLB CTX	TB	38%	96	86	18	3	0	2	8	25	2	4	1	225	306	356	662	131	284	26	8	299	88	-1	+0	+0	+0	+2	0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	TB	52%	147	131	29	5	0	4	12	37	3	6	1	225	305	356	661	131	284	25	8	299	88	-2	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	TB	60%	177	157	35	6	1	4	15	45	3	7	1	224	304	354	658	130	283	25	8	297	87	-3	+1	-0	+1	+4	0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	TB	62%	182	162	36	6	1	4	15	47	3	6	1	223	302	350	652	127	282	26	8	295	85	-3	+1	-1	+1	+4	0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	TB	63%	184	164	36	6	1	4	15	48	3	5	1	221	299	344	644	124	280	26	8	291	83	-4	+1	-1	+1	+4	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	786	700	154	26	3	18	65	202	14	28	5	220	299	343	642	123	281	26	8	296	86	-13	+4	-3	+3	+17	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	127	22	2	15	54	167	12	23	4	219	299	342	641	123	280	26	8	296	86	-11	+3	-2	+2	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2189	1946	434	79	6	54	177	576	51	121	22	223	305	353	658	130	287	26	8	295	86	-26	+7	-4	+6	+35	1.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	129	23	2	16	53	171	15	36	7	223	305	353	658	130	287	26	8	295	86	-11	+3	-2	+2	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 438 PAwOBA .382 → .304 (−78)K% 20.3% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.32%	÷1.000	×1.310	—	—	26.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.47%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.988	7.99%
HBP% /PA	3.65%	—	×0.770	—	×0.988	2.78%
Singles /BIP	27.21%	÷1.000	×0.870	×1.027	×0.988	24.03%
Doubles /BIP	6.25%	÷1.000	×0.780	×1.027	×0.988	4.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×1.027	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.15%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.988	4.48%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .382 → .304; ISO .163 → .140; BABIP .350 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 50 PAwOBA .289 → .240 (−49)K% 24.0% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	28.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.00%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.048	10.12%
HBP% /PA	2.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	1.97%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.930	—	×1.048	16.24%
Doubles /BIP	6.67%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.048	5.80%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	—	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.33%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.048	2.45%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .289 → .240; ISO .119 → .092; BABIP .241 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 69 PAwOBA .348 → .264 (−83)K% 29.0% → 37.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.99%	÷1.023	×1.310	—	—	37.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.35%	÷0.965	×0.600	—	×0.998	2.70%
HBP% /PA	4.35%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	3.34%
Singles /BIP	21.43%	÷1.005	×0.870	—	×0.998	18.52%
Doubles /BIP	14.29%	÷1.066	×0.780	—	×0.998	10.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.996	×0.850	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.76%	÷0.930	×0.880	—	×0.998	4.49%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .348 → .264; ISO .194 → .151; BABIP .366 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Damian Jackson'96-'06 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,509 PA	3.8	2,509	32	133	232*	309*	342*	+10	+11	5.7	6.0
/162	664	8	35	+2.5	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 6
#3Ed Spiezio'64-'72 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,716 PA	2.6	1,716	39	16	238*	304*	389*	+5	+8	4.7	4.9
/162	664	15	6	+1.9	+3.3	1.8	pk7: 5
#4Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#5Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Scott Leius'90-'99 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,727 PA	2.6	1,727	28	16	237*	306*	358*	+5	+5	1.5	2.1
/162	664	11	6	+2.0	+1.9	0.6	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	1.2	788	20	28	223	299	354	+3	+2	1.5	1.5
/162	664	16	23	+2.4	+1.3	1.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Tony Santa Maria (OGILVIE)	25	38	46	71	48	220/301/352	132	281	5	9	26%	8%	87	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Max Schuemann 2023 · AAA	26	47→51	43→45	59→60	47	225/314/340	114	306	10	29	28%	8%	88	+0.5	226/317/332	106	299	10	21	26%	10%	88	+0.4	221/316/318	97	288	9	20	24%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Ryan Bliss 2024 · AAA	24	45→51	46→50	59→60	44	224/286/356	132	289	12	32	26%	7%	81	-0.1	231/299/360	129	304	11	38	26%	8%	87	+0.4	223/291/342	119	294	9	40	25%	7%	79	-0.2
✕José Caballero 2022 · AA	25	44→45	44→45	55→70	47	217/293/337	119	284	11	29	27%	8%	80	-0.2	222/326/336	114	285	11	41	24%	11%	93	+0.8	226/318/339	113	301	10	63	26%	9%	91	+0.4
✕Cooper Bowman 2024 · AA	24	41→44	44→45	62→60	45	204/283/324	119	284	12	37	31%	8%	73	-0.6	210/281/325	115	288	10	33	29%	8%	72	-0.7	209/280/324	115	279	10	37	27%	8%	70	-0.6
✕Elijah Dunham 2023 · AA	25	44	48→50	58→60	47	221/295/372	151	285	15	28	27%	8%	88	+0.5	208/279/348	140	290	14	25	31%	8%	77	-0.3	192/263/324	133	273	13	24	33%	8%	63	-0.8
●Jake McCarthy 2022 · MLB	25	43→53	49→50	63→60	43	217/282/372	156	302	15	30	32%	8%	83	+0.1	264/327/402	138	323	13	34	21%	7%	107	+1.8	277/340/401	125	327	11	37	18%	7%	111	+1.8
✕Garrett Hampson 2020 · MLB	25	51→57	42→45	59→60	46	247/299/357	111	310	9	28	23%	7%	86	+0.3	224/280/343	119	294	11	22	26%	7%	76	-0.4	237/300/344	108	310	8	22	25%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Dustin Harris 2024 · AAA	25	45→55	49→50	59→60	49	228/305/379	151	286	16	26	26%	9%	94	+0.9	242/308/364	122	304	11	30	23%	8%	91	+0.7	253/317/371	118	309	11	34	21%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Nate Eaton 2023 · MLB	26	46→49	44→45	60	44	225/292/346	121	294	12	29	27%	7%	81	-0.1	214/264/339	125	280	13	27	28%	5%	69	-0.9	210/267/331	121	274	12	27	27%	6%	67	-0.8
✕Dru Baker 2024 · AA	24	50→57	45→40	63→60	41	240/298/365	124	331	13	32	30%	6%	88	+0.4	237/286/315	78	336	6	30	29%	5%	71	-0.8	235/283/299	64	337	4	32	30%	5%	63	-0.9
✕Tyler Greene 2010 · MLB	26	45→50	47→50	58→55	39	227/280/361	134	302	15	24	30%	5%	80	-0.2	235/298/376	141	316	15	23	29%	7%	91	+0.6	233/298/380	148	312	15	24	29%	7%	90	+0.4
✕Brent Lillibridge 2009 · MLB	25	47→54	43→50	59→60	43	228/283/346	118	296	9	28	26%	6%	78	-0.3	222/283/338	116	293	11	29	27%	7%	76	-0.4	222/280/356	134	299	17	36	30%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Anthony Norman 2009 · A	24	46→41	47→50	62→55	51	228/308/371	143	270	13	24	21%	9%	93	+0.8	215/288/341	126	275	11	14	24%	8%	79	-0.2	207/276/315	108	283	7	9	27%	7%	67	-0.3
✕Chad Hinshaw 2016 · AA	25	48→42	42→45	57→55	43	228/304/339	111	319	9	28	29%	7%	84	+0.2	200/268/298	98	296	8	19	33%	6%	61	-1.5	168/236/258	91	253	8	18	35%	6%	38	-1.4
✕Tanner Kirwer 2022 · AA	26	43	44→40	61→60	47	210/297/324	114	292	13	36	30%	9%	79	-0.2	205/278/294	89	293	9	31	31%	8%	64	-1.3	190/262/256	66	274	7	35	31%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Bradley Zimmer 2018 · MLB	25	49→51	47→50	59→60	43	233/303/377	144	340	14	29	34%	8%	93	+0.8	232/302/368	136	340	14	22	33%	8%	91	+0.6	202/291/307	105	323	12	23	37%	7%	73	-0.2
✕Samad Taylor 2023 · AAA	25	48→58	49→50	58→65	43	237/301/382	145	322	17	33	31%	7%	93	+0.8	243/315/357	114	332	10	40	27%	9%	92	+0.7	253/319/358	105	339	9	36	26%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Nate Tenbrink 2012 · AA	25	46→53	46→50	58→50	46	227/294/363	136	293	12	17	26%	8%	86	+0.3	223/294/368	145	323	15	13	33%	8%	87	+0.4	218/292/364	145	330	15	11	36%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Leo German 2017 · AAA	24	51→57	43→45	61→55	40	246/294/361	115	315	9	28	24%	5%	84	+0.2	272/309/356	84	356	6	22	24%	4%	88	+0.5	288/324/364	77	371	6	19	23%	4%	92	+0.5
✕Alen Hanson 2018 · MLB	25	49→53	43→50	60	43	239/278/357	118	288	10	30	21%	5%	77	-0.3	230/269/362	132	285	13	19	23%	5%	76	-0.4	232/269/369	137	288	12	18	23%	4%	75	-0.2

Tony Santa Maria

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps