Abraham Parra

P Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.3 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKSD	13	7	36	9.59	4.05	21.6%	13.5%	—	K 14.7% · BB 16.9% · FIP 5.40
2025	19	MIX2 levels	20	11	88	5.13	3.51	20.6%	9.0%	—	K 15.0% · BB 11.3% · FIP 4.73
2026	20	MIX3 levels	25	19	101	6.13	4.36	19.8%	14.0%	—	K 15.5% · BB 16.1% · FIP 4.89
2027PROJ	21	MLBSD	12	12	70	5.83	5.83	13.9%	16.3%	-0.7
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSD	8	8	47	5.52	5.39	16.2%	14.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBSD	13	13	73	5.23	5.10	17.6%	12.9%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$2M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$3M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control40Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 6, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%

CompsLuis Mateo (age 22) · Kyle Larsen (age 21) · Kevin Gowdy (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.83

FIP5.83

K%13.9%

BB%16.3%

K-BB%-2.4%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	10	5	26	111	14	8	1	50%	2.6	8.6%	9.0%	-0.4%	1.2%	3.46	4.16	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	10	5	26	111	14	8	1	50%	2.6	12.6%	7.2%	5.4%	0.9%	3.46	3.45	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	7	36	185	40	25	3	54%	2.7	14.7%	16.9%	-2.2%	2.5%	9.59	5.40	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	7	36	185	40	25	3	54%	2.7	14.7%	16.9%	-2.2%	2.5%	9.59	5.40	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	13	7	36	185	40	25	3	54%	2.7	21.6%	13.5%	8.1%	1.6%	9.59	4.05	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	11	88	389	80	35	7	55%	4.4	15.0%	11.3%	3.7%	2.7%	5.13	4.73	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	11	88	389	80	35	7	55%	4.4	15.0%	11.3%	3.7%	2.7%	5.13	4.73	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	11	88	389	80	35	7	55%	4.4	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	1.8%	5.13	3.51	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	19	101	465	92	65	9	76%	4.1	15.5%	16.1%	-0.6%	1.9%	6.13	4.89	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	19	101	465	92	65	9	76%	4.1	15.5%	16.1%	-0.6%	1.9%	6.13	4.89	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	19	101	465	92	65	9	76%	4.1	19.8%	14.0%	5.8%	1.9%	6.13	4.36	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	SD	12	12	70	296	41	48	8	100%	5.8	13.9%	16.3%	-2.4%	2.7%	5.83	5.83	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	96	404	66	57	11	100%	6.0	16.2%	14.2%	2.0%	2.6%	5.48	5.35	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	99	420	74	54	11	100%	5.8	17.6%	12.9%	4.8%	2.6%	5.19	5.06	-0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	102	430	79	52	11	100%	5.7	18.4%	12.0%	6.4%	2.6%	4.99	4.88	+0.0
2031	25	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	103	436	82	51	11	100%	5.7	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.6%	4.86	4.78	+0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	103	436	83	50	11	100%	6.1	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	2.6%	4.80	4.76	+0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	102	429	82	50	11	100%	6.0	19.1%	11.6%	7.4%	2.6%	4.80	4.80	+0.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	99	416	79	49	11	100%	6.2	18.9%	11.8%	7.2%	2.7%	4.85	4.88	+0.0
2035	29	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	94	398	74	48	12	100%	5.9	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	2.9%	4.95	5.01	-0.1
2036	30	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	88	374	69	46	12	100%	5.9	18.4%	12.3%	6.1%	3.1%	5.09	5.19	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	47	198	32	28	5	100%	5.9	16.2%	14.2%	2.0%	2.7%	5.52	5.39	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	73	308	54	40	8	100%	5.6	17.6%	12.9%	4.8%	2.7%	5.23	5.10	-0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	84	355	65	43	9	100%	6.0	18.4%	12.0%	6.4%	2.7%	5.03	4.92	+0.0
2031	25	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	91	384	73	45	10	100%	5.7	18.9%	11.6%	7.3%	2.7%	4.90	4.82	+0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	94	397	76	46	11	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.6%	7.5%	2.7%	4.84	4.80	+0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	94	397	76	46	11	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.6%	7.4%	2.7%	4.84	4.84	+0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	92	388	74	46	11	100%	6.1	18.9%	11.8%	7.2%	2.8%	4.89	4.92	+0.0
2035	29	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	89	376	70	45	11	100%	5.9	18.7%	12.0%	6.7%	3.0%	4.99	5.05	-0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	84	355	65	44	11	100%	6.0	18.4%	12.3%	6.1%	3.2%	5.13	5.23	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		127	127	750	3167	586	383	88	100%	5.9	18.5%	12.1%	6.4%	2.8%	5.00	4.60	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	156	102	23	100%	5.9	18.5%	12.1%	6.4%	2.8%	5.00	4.60	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		68	42	251	1150	167	160	25	62%	3.7	14.5%	13.9%	0.6%	2.2%	6.00	4.85	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	34	200	918	133	128	20	62%	3.7	14.5%	13.9%	0.6%	2.2%	6.00	4.85	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abraham Parra (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.83	13.9%	16.3%	2.7%	—	5.09	17.4%	4.4%	297	-0.74	—	—	—
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	88
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	86
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	86
Jacob Cravey R 2024 · 5.15 FIP	22	SP-	5.15	14.4%	18.0%	1.8%	.333	5.84	14.7%	1.0%	124	+0.69	4.97	208	86
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	85
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	85
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	84
Jefferson Medina R 2015 · 5.12 FIP	21	SP-	5.12	13.1%	16.1%	2.0%	.279	3.89	14.1%	2.6%	187	-1.23	3.56	350	84
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	83
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	83
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	83
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	83
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	83
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	82
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	82
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	82
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	81
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.8	96	18.1%	12.5%	1.05	5.06
Jake Wade ('36-'46, -1 WAR*)	3.3	84	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.08*	5.03*
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92
Victor Zambrano ('07)	3.5	101	16.6%	12.7%	0.99	4.64
Joe Sparma ('64-'70, 3 WAR*)	4.3	124	19.3%*	11.5%*	1.07*	4.93*
Frank Bertaina ('64-'70, -1 WAR*)	2.1	69	19.0%*	11.8%*	1.24*	5.03*
Jaret Wright ('07)	4.9	108	16.0%	10.7%	0.92	5.09