Ryan Brown
P
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 60 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122113vR 104
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
K%32.9%
BB%18.3%
K-BB%14.6%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 48 | 223 | 92 | 47 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.6% | 23.6% | 8.0% | 0.6% | 5.81 | 3.77 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 37 | 0 | 48 | 223 | 92 | 47 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 41.3% | 21.1% | 20.2% | 0.9% | 5.81 | 2.75 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 86 | 0 | 90 | 380 | 125 | 69 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.9% | 18.3% | 14.6% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.54 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 88 | 0 | 92 | 389 | 126 | 59 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.4% | 15.3% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.20 | +1.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 126 | 53 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.0% | 13.3% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 3.98 | +1.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 89 | 0 | 93 | 394 | 125 | 51 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.7% | 13.0% | 18.7% | 2.8% | 4.04 | 3.97 | +1.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 88 | 0 | 92 | 388 | 122 | 50 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.5% | 12.9% | 18.5% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 4.02 | +1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 85 | 0 | 89 | 377 | 118 | 49 | 11 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.4% | 13.1% | 18.3% | 2.9% | 4.07 | 4.10 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 81 | 0 | 85 | 360 | 112 | 48 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.1% | 13.3% | 17.8% | 3.1% | 4.17 | 4.23 | +0.9 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 53 | 25 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.4% | 15.3% | 17.1% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 59 | 0 | 62 | 262 | 84 | 35 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 32.0% | 13.3% | 18.7% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 99 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.7% | 13.0% | 18.7% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.93 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 74 | 0 | 78 | 329 | 104 | 43 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.5% | 12.9% | 18.5% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 3.98 | +0.9 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 105 | 44 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.4% | 13.1% | 18.3% | 2.9% | 4.03 | 4.06 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 73 | 0 | 77 | 325 | 101 | 43 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.1% | 13.3% | 17.8% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 4.18 | +0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 391 | 0 | 410 | 1733 | 548 | 231 | 48 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.6% | 13.3% | 18.3% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.65 | +8.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 267 | 113 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.6% | 13.3% | 18.3% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
| Career | — | 37 | 0 | 48 | 223 | 70 | 53 | 1 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.6% | 23.6% | 8.0% | 0.6% | 5.81 | 3.77 | +0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 0 | 200 | 929 | 294 | 219 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 31.6% | 23.6% | 8.0% | 0.6% | 5.81 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.54 | 32.9% | 18.3% | 2.8% | — | 4.05 | 32.0% | 18.2% | 279 | -0.49 | — | — | — |
| Nick Ernst R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.54 | 30.5% | 15.3% | 2.0% | .292 | 4.99 | 21.9% | 7.3% | 60 | +1.45 | 3.54 | 117 | 83 |
| Jonathan Sprinkle R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.68 | 34.4% | 18.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 4.75 | 22.2% | 3.6% | 75 | +1.07 | 3.68 | 109 | 80 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.73 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.31 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.58 | 3.73 | 203 | 78 |
| Freddy Pacheco R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.97 | 34.4% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .259 | 3.54 | 28.4% | 16.8% | 62 | -0.43 | 2.60 | 232 | 78 |
| Eduard Santos R 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.49 | 28.1% | 15.2% | 1.5% | .265 | 3.62 | 24.0% | 10.0% | 79 | +0.13 | 2.04 | 138 | 77 |
| Akeel Morris R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.63 | 26.7% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .311 | 4.35 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 107 | +0.72 | 2.94 | 305 | 76 |
| Tyler Thornton R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.44 | 29.0% | 17.1% | 3.0% | .188 | 5.01 | 22.2% | 4.8% | 63 | +0.57 | 3.75 | 148 | 75 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2027 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.90 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.86 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.96 | 4.90 | 103 | 75 |
| Vin Timpanelli R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.31 | 27.4% | 19.9% | 3.6% | .350 | 4.69 | 17.9% | 4.0% | 69 | -0.62 | 4.06 | 162 | 75 |
| Luis Guerrero R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 29.1% | 14.1% | 2.8% | .270 | 6.68 | 16.0% | 0.7% | 81 | +2.73 | 2.97 | 222 | 75 |
| Joe Barlow R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.54 | 30.8% | 18.8% | 1.2% | .340 | 3.62 | 24.1% | 14.2% | 85 | +0.08 | 3.04 | 354 | 75 |
| Magnus Ellerts R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.51 | 28.1% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.58 | 26.0% | 5.6% | 59 | +1.07 | 3.51 | 156 | 75 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.84 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .313 | 3.92 | 21.1% | 9.9% | 138 | +0.08 | 3.80 | 190 | 74 |
| Jake Haberer R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.62 | 26.9% | 17.3% | 1.1% | .278 | 6.08 | 19.6% | 3.0% | 76 | +2.46 | 3.62 | 183 | 74 |
| Dalbert Siri R 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.13 | 26.8% | 14.7% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.01 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 67 | +0.88 | 2.64 | 216 | 73 |
| Peyton Gray R 2029 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 72 |
| Will Kobos R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.47 | 30.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .190 | 3.31 | 24.5% | 6.5% | 31 | -0.16 | 2.44 | 139 | 72 |
| Elison Joseph R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.45 | 26.8% | 14.1% | 1.5% | .265 | 4.85 | 22.3% | -4.5% | 57 | +1.40 | 3.45 | 217 | 71 |
| Zac Leigh R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.77 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | .270 | 4.55 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 197 | 71 |
| CJ Weins R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 24.7% | 15.9% | 2.5% | .276 | 5.59 | 16.8% | -2.7% | 73 | +1.17 | 4.42 | 113 | 71 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 91 | 31.9% | 14.2% | 1.10 | 4.18 |
| Dinelson Lamet ('23) | 6 | 61 | 30.0% | 10.7% | 1.29 | 4.66 |
| Patrick Sandoval ('24) | 6 | 89 | 22.7% | 10.1% | 0.92 | 4.01 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Ian Anderson ('22) | 3 | 91 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 0.96 | 3.97 |
| Tyson Ross ('19) | 4 | 107 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 0.84 | 4.31 |