Ryan Brown — OGILVIE

Ryan Brown P Rancho Cucamonga Quakes

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs A

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 90 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%32.1%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%12.1%

ROS IP90

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL2020

CMD5555

K†7070

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	48	223	92	47	2	0%	1.3	31.6%	23.6%	8.0%	0.7%	5.81	3.79	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	48	223	92	47	2	0%	1.3	31.6%	23.6%	8.0%	0.7%	5.81	3.79	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	48	223	92	47	2	0%	1.3	41.3%	21.1%	20.2%	0.9%	5.81	2.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	LAD	86	0	90	380	122	76	11	0%	1.0	32.1%	20.0%	12.1%	2.9%	4.88	4.88	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	LAD	87	0	91	385	121	64	11	0%	1.0	31.5%	16.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.63	4.51	+0.0
2029	26	MLB MLE	LAD	87	0	91	385	119	61	11	0%	1.0	31.0%	15.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.52	4.46	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	LAD	85	0	90	379	116	59	11	0%	1.1	30.6%	15.6%	15.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.49	+0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	LAD	83	0	87	367	111	57	11	0%	1.0	30.2%	15.6%	14.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.57	-0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	LAD	79	0	83	351	105	55	11	0%	1.1	30.0%	15.8%	14.2%	3.2%	4.64	4.70	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	LAD	74	0	78	330	104	50	11	0%	1.1	31.6%	15.3%	16.4%	3.4%	4.62	4.61	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	LAD	37	0	39	165	52	27	5	0%	1.1	31.5%	16.7%	14.9%	2.9%	4.63	4.51	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	LAD	57	0	60	253	79	40	7	0%	1.1	31.0%	15.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.52	4.46	+0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	LAD	66	0	69	291	89	45	9	0%	1.0	30.6%	15.6%	15.0%	2.9%	4.50	4.49	+0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	LAD	70	0	73	308	93	48	9	0%	1.0	30.2%	15.6%	14.7%	3.0%	4.54	4.57	-0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	LAD	70	0	73	308	92	49	10	0%	1.0	30.0%	15.8%	14.2%	3.2%	4.64	4.70	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	LAD	67	0	70	296	94	45	10	0%	1.0	31.6%	15.3%	16.4%	3.4%	4.62	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		366	0	385	1624	500	255	50	0%	1.1	30.8%	15.7%	15.0%	3.1%	4.57	4.18	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	260	133	26	0%	1.1	30.8%	15.7%	15.0%	3.1%	4.57	4.18	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		37	0	48	223	70	53	1	0%	1.3	31.6%	23.6%	8.0%	0.7%	5.81	3.79	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	929	294	219	6	0%	1.3	31.6%	23.6%	8.0%	0.7%	5.81	3.79	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	32.1%	20.0%	2.9%	—	4.49	31.1%	15.0%	272	-0.39	—	—	—
Christopher Troye R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	31.4%	18.2%	1.8%	.287	5.52	22.2%	2.8%	75	+1.76	3.42	158	80
Justin Yeager R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	29.6%	15.8%	3.6%	.230	3.38	19.6%	9.2%	108	-1.20	3.32	265	79
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	78
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	160	75
Eric Reyzelman R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	30.3%	15.6%	2.4%	.261	4.78	24.5%	8.6%	94	+0.97	3.81	117	75
Eduardo Herrera R 2024 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.5%	15.7%	2.2%	.284	4.44	16.7%	-5.0%	31	+0.31	4.13	127	74
Evan Johnson R 2021 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	28.6%	16.3%	3.1%	.308	4.64	23.6%	6.0%	38	+0.20	4.42	103	74
Eric Cerantola R 2024 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	25.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.245	3.74	26.2%	15.9%	100	-0.91	3.37	270	73
Johnathan Lavallee R 2024 · 3.72 FIP	24	SU	3.72	26.2%	14.9%	1.7%	.245	4.50	21.2%	8.8%	95	+0.78	3.72	210	73
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	73
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	73
Brad Boxberger R 2012 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	27.5%	14.2%	2.4%	.284	3.44	33.4%	23.7%	150	-0.47	2.63	478	73
Dennis Sarfate R 2008 · 4.42 FIP	27	SU	4.42	24.0%	16.7%	2.2%	.263	4.81	19.8%	5.9%	23	+0.39	4.42	103	72
Shane Broyles R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	24	SU	4.03	24.3%	15.3%	1.9%	.328	3.62	26.4%	17.1%	108	-0.41	3.34	218	72
Jonathan Sprinkle R 2022 · 4.18 FIP	24	SU	4.18	24.8%	16.3%	2.0%	.331	6.20	17.4%	-5.5%	26	+2.02	3.81	109	72
Barrett Loseke R 2021 · 4.64 FIP	24	SU	4.64	26.2%	12.8%	3.9%	.282	4.63	22.2%	11.8%	86	-0.01	4.42	152	72
Zac Leigh R 2022 · 3.70 FIP	24	SU	3.70	28.5%	12.3%	2.6%	.270	4.45	21.7%	5.8%	130	+0.75	3.70	201	71
Trey Wingenter R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	24	SU	3.95	27.5%	13.5%	2.7%	.240	3.17	33.0%	20.2%	51	-0.78	2.81	293	71
Jace Beck R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	29.7%	22.5%	2.4%	.373	4.17	27.0%	14.5%	144	-0.60	4.03	216	71
Gabriel Ponce R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	24	SU	4.59	24.1%	14.9%	3.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	161	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,251 pitcher careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	31.0%	16.4%	1.17	4.62
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Rick Ankiel ('04)	1.2	81	25.9%	12.5%	1.19	3.90
Jonathan Sánchez ('13)	3.9	112	22.8%	12.5%	1.04	4.70
Kyle Barraclough ('23)	1.4	56	28.2%	13.9%	0.99	3.86
Michael Kopech ('25)	2.1	103	25.8%	12.5%	1.45	4.14
Matt Mantei ('05)	1.6	54	28.0%	14.1%	0.84	4.07