Ryan Brown
P
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes
+0.2
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'2" / 205 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%25.0%
BB%12.2%
K-BB%12.8%
IP35
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Great Lakes Loons | 37 | 0 | 48 | 223 | 92 | 47 | 2 | 31.6% | 23.6% | 0.7% | 5.81 | 3.78 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | MLB | LAD | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 37 | 18 | 4 | 25.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | LAD | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 39 | 17 | 4 | 25.4% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.26 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | LAD | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 40 | 16 | 4 | 25.6% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | LAD | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 40 | 16 | 4 | 25.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | LAD | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 40 | 16 | 4 | 25.7% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | LAD | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 39 | 16 | 4 | 25.6% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | LAD | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 38 | 15 | 4 | 25.5% | 10.4% | 2.9% | 4.20 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | LAD | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 36 | 15 | 4 | 25.3% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | LAD | 33 | — | 33 | 139 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 25.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.36 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | LAD | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 31 | 14 | 4 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 29 | — | 29 | 121 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 24.1% | 11.2% | 3.3% | 4.58 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 37 | 0 | 48 | 223 | 70 | 53 | 1 | 31.6% | 23.6% | 0.7% | 5.81 | 3.78 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 0 | 200 | 929 | 292 | 221 | 4 | 31.6% | 23.6% | 0.7% | 5.81 | 3.78 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Brown (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.44 | 25.0% | 12.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.18 | 25.6% | 15.0% | 110 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.58 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.48 | 4.10 | 130 | 96 |
| Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.34 | 3.29 | 201 | 94 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.31 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.83 | 3.48 | 290 | 92 |
| Zac Leigh R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .270 | 4.50 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 164 | 92 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 183 | 91 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 87 |
| Jackson Kelley R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.80 | 26.5% | 13.1% | 2.3% | .313 | 3.99 | 22.0% | 10.2% | 94 | +0.19 | 3.80 | 146 | 87 |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.67 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.67 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.19 | 3.24 | 182 | 86 |
| Nic Enright R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.01 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.62 | 0.50 | 249 | 86 |
| Logan VanWey R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.41 | 23.9% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .301 | 4.39 | 26.1% | 10.7% | 96 | -0.02 | 3.95 | 143 | 86 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 86 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.35 | 30.2% | 15.3% | 1.6% | .250 | 4.68 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 60 | +1.33 | 3.35 | 102 | 85 |
| Patrick Ruotolo R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.20 | 27.5% | 10.6% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.63 | 28.9% | 25.8% | 37 | -0.57 | 3.02 | 190 | 85 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2027 · 4.92 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.92 | 26.4% | 16.3% | 3.6% | .278 | 5.61 | 20.3% | 5.0% | 58 | +0.69 | 4.92 | 103 | 85 |
| Ryan Sublette R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.74 | 27.3% | 14.6% | 2.0% | .301 | 5.34 | 20.1% | 1.6% | 149 | +1.60 | 3.74 | 203 | 85 |
| Peyton Gray R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 85 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 84 |
| Colin McKee R 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.04 | 24.2% | 14.7% | 3.9% | .330 | 4.35 | 27.7% | 12.9% | 97 | -0.69 | 4.16 | 148 | 84 |
| Dalbert Siri R 2026 · 4.07 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.07 | 26.8% | 14.7% | 2.5% | .262 | 4.88 | 20.0% | 6.3% | 67 | +0.81 | 2.64 | 216 | 84 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.0M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1M | -$0.4M |
| Totals | $6M | $8M | +$2M | ||