Jake Knapp

P Knoxville Smokies

Age 26 RHP 6'5" / 270 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAPROSPECT

MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	25	AACHC	11	11	37	5.65	5.15	25.8%	13.8%	—	K 20.9% · BB 15.2% · FIP 6.16
2027PROJ	26	MLBCHC	4	4	22	5.27	5.27	21.5%	13.8%	-0.1
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBCHC	2	2	12	5.20	5.21	21.7%	13.4%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsCole Henry (age 25) · Tony Dibrell (age 26) · Riley Thompson (age 26)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%21.5%

BB%13.8%

K-BB%7.7%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	11	11	37	159	41	22	7	100%	3.3	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	5.3%	5.65	6.16	—
2026	25	AA MLE	Knoxville Smokies	11	11	37	159	41	22	7	100%	3.3	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	5.3%	5.65	6.16	—
2026	25	AA RAW	Knoxville Smokies	11	11	37	159	41	22	7	100%	3.3	25.8%	13.8%	11.9%	4.4%	5.65	5.15	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	CHC	4	4	22	93	20	13	3	100%	5.5	21.5%	13.8%	7.7%	3.4%	5.27	5.27	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	CHC	5	5	32	137	30	18	5	100%	6.5	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.4%	5.20	5.21	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	CHC	2	2	12	51	11	7	2	100%	6.0	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.4%	5.20	5.21	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	12	52	11	7	2	100%	6.1	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.4%	5.20	4.83	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	180	115	33	100%	6.0	21.7%	13.4%	8.3%	3.4%	5.20	4.83	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		11	11	37	159	33	24	8	100%	3.3	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	5.3%	5.65	6.16	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	60	200	867	181	132	46	100%	3.3	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	5.3%	5.65	6.16	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Knapp (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	21.5%	13.8%	3.4%	—	5.21	21.7%	8.3%	32	-0.06	—	—	—
Cole Henry R 2024 · 5.88 FIP	25	SP	5.88	17.3%	16.2%	4.0%	.243	4.69	20.6%	10.7%	87	-1.19	2.96	186	72
Tony Dibrell R 2022 · 4.96 FIP	26	SP-	4.96	23.8%	17.4%	3.0%	.314	8.63	13.2%	-1.2%	29	+3.67	4.18	347	72
Riley Thompson R 2022 · 5.32 FIP	26	SP	5.32	21.7%	14.7%	4.0%	.289	5.03	18.0%	7.4%	189	-0.29	4.48	340	72
Shane McCarthy R 2021 · 5.47 FIP	25	SP	5.47	18.9%	11.9%	4.5%	.240	8.32	14.3%	3.9%	18	+2.85	2.07	117	71
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	70
J.P. Massey R 2024 · 4.72 FIP	24	SP	4.72	16.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.283	5.71	15.5%	-1.3%	46	+0.99	4.72	195	70
Britt Reames R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	26	SP	4.49	18.2%	12.9%	2.4%	.230	4.35	21.9%	11.5%	163	-0.14	3.76	204	68
Carlos Torres R 2009 · 5.24 FIP	26	SP-	5.24	16.9%	11.5%	3.9%	.284	3.59	18.2%	7.3%	67	-1.65	2.89	604	68
Noah Hall R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	23	SP	5.65	15.1%	17.0%	3.1%	.450	4.88	18.6%	3.6%	236	-0.77	4.27	248	68
Noah Song R 2023 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	12.0%	13.2%	4.2%	.239	3.80	19.8%	8.3%	116	-2.26	3.68	138	68
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	67
Ben Meyer R 2019 · 5.58 FIP	26	SP	5.58	19.4%	13.1%	4.5%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	2.32	387	67
Jake Bockenstedt R 2024 · 6.05 FIP	24	SP	6.05	17.0%	13.1%	5.0%	.322	4.35	16.8%	5.4%	126	-1.70	3.74	218	67
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	66
Jimmy Lambert R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	26	SP	4.70	25.0%	12.0%	4.0%	.276	5.13	20.8%	10.0%	114	+0.43	3.43	526	66
Ike Buxton R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	24	SP	4.45	15.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.341	4.97	13.8%	-5.5%	46	+0.52	4.45	196	65
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	65
Seth Shuman R 2024 · 5.47 FIP	26	SP	5.47	14.1%	8.0%	4.7%	.273	4.61	17.0%	11.3%	157	-0.86	3.16	357	65
Sam Whiting R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	23	SP	4.12	14.6%	12.3%	1.3%	.320	4.88	17.1%	3.5%	105	+0.76	4.12	177	64
Justin Dunn R 2022 · 6.06 FIP	26	SP	6.06	16.1%	12.9%	4.9%	.267	5.29	18.8%	4.1%	49	-0.77	3.54	607	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.6%	13.6%	1.31	5.23
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*