Merit Jones

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 24 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AMIN	1	0	2	0.00	2.10	14.3%	0.0%	—	K 14.3% · BB 0.0% · FIP 1.89
2026	23	MIX2 levels	29	15	112	4.17	3.67	23.7%	8.7%	—	K 17.6% · BB 10.2% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIN	14	14	79	4.89	4.89	18.4%	10.1%	0.0
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIN	8	8	44	4.76	4.71	19.5%	9.5%	0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIN	11	11	68	4.67	4.64	20.1%	9.3%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsCooper Chandler (age 24) · Carlos Sano (age 25) · Kyle Scott (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%18.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%8.2%

Proj IP79

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 79 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	—
2025	22	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	1.89	—
2025	22	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	1	0	2	7	1	0	0	0%	2.0	14.3%	0.0%	14.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.10	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	15	112	494	117	43	13	52%	3.9	17.6%	10.2%	7.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.78	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	15	112	494	117	43	13	52%	3.9	17.6%	10.2%	7.4%	3.4%	4.17	4.78	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	15	112	494	117	43	13	52%	3.9	23.7%	8.7%	15.0%	2.6%	4.17	3.67	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIN	14	14	79	334	61	34	10	100%	5.6	18.4%	10.1%	8.2%	3.1%	4.89	4.89	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIN	18	18	102	432	84	41	13	100%	5.7	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	3.0%	4.75	4.70	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	102	432	87	40	13	100%	6.0	20.1%	9.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.66	4.63	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIN	17	17	101	426	86	40	13	100%	5.9	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.1%	4.64	4.64	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	98	413	83	39	13	100%	6.1	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.2%	4.68	4.72	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIN	16	16	94	395	79	38	13	100%	5.8	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.78	4.85	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIN	15	15	88	371	73	37	13	100%	5.9	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	3.5%	4.93	5.03	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIN	8	8	44	186	36	18	6	100%	5.5	19.5%	9.5%	10.0%	3.1%	4.76	4.71	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIN	11	11	68	287	58	27	9	100%	6.2	20.1%	9.3%	10.8%	3.0%	4.67	4.64	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	78	329	67	31	10	100%	6.0	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	3.1%	4.65	4.65	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	82	346	70	33	11	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.2%	4.69	4.73	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIN	14	14	82	346	69	33	12	100%	5.9	19.9%	9.7%	10.2%	3.3%	4.79	4.86	+0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIN	13	13	79	334	65	33	12	100%	6.1	19.6%	10.0%	9.6%	3.5%	4.94	5.04	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		57	57	433	1827	364	174	59	100%	7.6	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.40	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		26	26	200	844	168	80	27	100%	7.6	19.9%	9.5%	10.4%	3.2%	4.75	4.40	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		30	15	114	501	88	50	17	50%	3.8	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.4%	4.09	4.74	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	26	200	876	154	88	29	50%	3.8	17.6%	10.1%	7.5%	3.4%	4.09	4.74	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merit Jones (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	18.4%	10.1%	3.1%	—	4.66	20.0%	10.6%	306	-0.23	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	94
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	88
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	86
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	85
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	85
Zach Miner R 2006 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	14.8%	7.8%	2.8%	.300	4.24	13.8%	4.6%	264	-0.11	3.55	386	85
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	84
Aaron Brown R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP-	3.98	19.8%	8.8%	2.6%	.337	5.87	17.1%	9.0%	186	+1.89	3.98	418	84
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2015 · 5.06 FIP	24	SP-	5.06	18.8%	10.2%	4.1%	.327	4.01	23.2%	13.0%	155	-1.05	2.64	315	83
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	83
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	83
Logan Martin R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	23	SP-	3.95	16.9%	8.9%	2.1%	.278	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	140	+0.63	3.95	242	83
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	83
Cesar Gomez R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	24	SP-	4.86	17.4%	7.5%	4.1%	.316	5.01	14.6%	4.7%	160	+0.15	4.11	345	83
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	82
Thomas Ponticelli R 2021 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	17.2%	9.7%	3.0%	.264	5.25	15.1%	3.8%	163	+0.75	2.59	367	82
Houston Roth R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	24	SP-	4.44	19.3%	11.2%	2.8%	.306	5.01	21.1%	8.6%	168	+0.57	3.79	406	82
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	95	19.7%	9.6%	1.23	4.75
Bill Fleming ('40-'46, 1 WAR*)	2.2	74	19.1%*	9.6%*	1.22*	4.54*
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
John Tsitouris ('57-'68, 1 WAR*)	3.3	110	19.5%*	9.7%*	1.30*	4.80*
Mickey Mahler ('77-'86, 0 WAR*)	2.0	81	20.4%*	10.3%*	1.20*	4.87*
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86