Parker Smith
P
Asheville Tourists
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 230 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION73 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134124vR 115
ERA5.08
FIP5.08
K%16.8%
BB%12.5%
K-BB%4.3%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 134 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 68 | 291 | 63 | 30 | 0 | 78% | 3.8 | 16.0% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 0.0% | 3.16 | 3.22 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 14 | 68 | 291 | 63 | 30 | 0 | 78% | 3.8 | 21.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 3.16 | 2.57 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 15 | 15 | 73 | 324 | 56 | 25 | 9 | 100% | 4.8 | 13.3% | 8.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.33 | 5.01 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 12 | 12 | 62 | 260 | 44 | 33 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.8% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 5.08 | 5.08 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.8% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 5.12 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 134 | 584 | 100 | 58 | 16 | — | — | 17.1% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 5.21 | 5.04 | +0.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | HOU | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 16.8% | 12.5% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 5.12 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 63 | 266 | 49 | 31 | 7 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 2.6% | 4.92 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 52 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 4.79 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 53 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 10 | 10 | 63 | 266 | 52 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 6.3 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 7 | 7 | 42 | 177 | 34 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.2% | 11.2% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 4.83 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 8 | 8 | 51 | 215 | 42 | 24 | 6 | 100% | 6.4 | 19.6% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.76 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 9 | 9 | 54 | 228 | 45 | 25 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 30 | 30 | 174 | 736 | 142 | 83 | 20 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.40 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 163 | 95 | 23 | 100% | 5.9 | 19.3% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 4.81 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 33 | 29 | 141 | 615 | 90 | 62 | 11 | 88% | 4.3 | 14.6% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 4.28 | 4.16 | +2.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 41 | 200 | 872 | 127 | 89 | 16 | 88% | 4.3 | 14.6% | 10.1% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 4.28 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Parker Smith (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 16.8% | 12.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.76 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 191 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Chris Kachmar R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 89 |
| Tyler Skulina R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 18.3% | 11.6% | 2.6% | .242 | 5.24 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 147 | +0.78 | 4.46 | 222 | 89 |
| Jack Noble R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.45 | 16.5% | 13.1% | 2.0% | .258 | 6.15 | 20.3% | 8.2% | 58 | +1.70 | 4.45 | 125 | 88 |
| Cade Kuehler R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.21 | 15.5% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .266 | 6.79 | 14.5% | 2.4% | 73 | +2.58 | 4.21 | 123 | 88 |
| Reid Schaller R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 87 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 86 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.24 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 3.6% | .261 | 5.13 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.11 | 4.93 | 501 | 86 |
| Jason Savacool R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.43 | 16.6% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .285 | 7.34 | 19.6% | 3.2% | 26 | +2.91 | 4.43 | 225 | 85 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.24 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.6% | .329 | 4.33 | 21.3% | 10.9% | 132 | +0.09 | 2.63 | 213 | 85 |
| Dylan Burns R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.06 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .300 | 4.86 | 11.6% | -2.4% | 41 | +0.80 | 4.06 | 120 | 85 |
| Connor Staine R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.66 | 20.3% | 12.6% | 3.1% | .266 | 5.22 | 16.1% | 2.8% | 185 | +0.56 | 3.71 | 370 | 84 |
| J.P. Massey R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.91 | 18.2% | 16.0% | 2.4% | .259 | 5.03 | 15.9% | 0.6% | 115 | +0.12 | 4.62 | 195 | 84 |
| Evan Johnson R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.41 | 15.3% | 14.2% | 1.5% | .287 | 4.38 | 25.7% | 8.6% | 65 | -0.03 | 4.32 | 103 | 84 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 5.06 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.03 | 4.10 | 218 | 84 |
| Josh Hansell R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.01 | 17.0% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .362 | 5.18 | 17.6% | 1.5% | 41 | +1.17 | 3.55 | 169 | 84 |
| Michael Ross R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 83 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.94 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.7% | .269 | 4.98 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.04 | 4.60 | 529 | 83 |
| Hayden Merda R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.06 | 16.1% | 15.3% | 2.5% | .325 | 4.42 | 25.8% | 12.5% | 87 | -0.64 | 3.50 | 182 | 83 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 83 |
| David Griffin R 2028 · 4.52 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.52 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 5.47 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.95 | 4.52 | 239 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 63 | 18.7% | 11.5% | 1.03 | 4.84 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |