Parker Smith — OGILVIE

Parker Smith P Asheville Tourists

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 230 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.2 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION98 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%16.8%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%4.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF3545

CTRL4045

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	68	291	63	30	0	78%	3.8	16.0%	11.6%	4.4%	0.0%	3.16	3.22	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	14	68	291	63	30	0	78%	3.8	16.0%	11.6%	4.4%	0.0%	3.16	3.22	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	14	68	291	63	30	0	78%	3.8	21.6%	10.3%	11.3%	0.0%	3.16	2.57	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	23	22	98	465	74	43	11	96%	4.3	12.3%	10.6%	1.6%	3.0%	6.89	5.04	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	23	22	98	465	74	43	11	96%	4.3	12.3%	10.6%	1.6%	3.0%	6.89	5.04	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	HOU	23	22	98	465	74	43	11	96%	4.3	15.9%	9.2%	6.7%	2.4%	6.89	4.23	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	HOU	1	1	5	22	4	3	1	100%	5.2	16.8%	12.8%	4.0%	2.6%	5.12	5.12	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	HOU	—	—	103	487	78	46	12	—	—	16.0%	9.4%	6.5%	2.4%	6.80	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	18	18	98	415	76	49	11	100%	5.5	18.2%	11.8%	6.5%	2.6%	4.94	4.87	+0.0
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	100	421	80	47	11	100%	5.9	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	2.6%	4.80	4.74	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	17	17	100	421	82	46	11	100%	5.9	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	2.7%	4.73	4.69	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	98	414	81	45	11	100%	6.1	19.4%	11.0%	8.5%	2.7%	4.72	4.72	+0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	16	16	95	402	78	45	11	100%	6.0	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	2.8%	4.77	4.80	+0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	15	15	91	384	73	44	11	100%	6.1	19.1%	11.3%	7.7%	3.0%	4.87	4.94	-0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	14	14	85	361	68	42	11	100%	6.1	18.7%	11.7%	7.1%	3.2%	5.02	5.11	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	8	8	42	177	32	21	5	100%	5.2	18.2%	11.8%	6.5%	2.6%	4.90	4.83	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	66	279	53	31	7	100%	6.0	19.0%	11.2%	7.8%	2.6%	4.76	4.70	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	79	334	65	37	9	100%	6.1	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	2.6%	4.69	4.65	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	84	355	69	39	9	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	4.68	4.68	+0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	85	359	69	40	10	100%	6.1	19.3%	11.1%	8.2%	2.7%	4.73	4.76	+0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	14	14	83	350	67	40	10	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.3%	7.7%	2.9%	4.83	4.90	-0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	13	13	79	334	62	39	10	100%	6.1	18.7%	11.7%	7.1%	3.1%	4.97	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		87	87	517	2184	417	246	60	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	2.7%	4.79	4.42	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	161	95	23	100%	5.9	19.1%	11.3%	7.8%	2.7%	4.79	4.42	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		41	36	166	756	103	83	14	88%	4.1	13.7%	11.0%	2.7%	1.8%	5.36	4.34	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	43	200	909	124	100	17	88%	4.1	13.7%	11.0%	2.7%	1.8%	5.36	4.34	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Parker Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	16.8%	12.8%	2.6%	—	4.77	18.9%	7.6%	298	-0.35	—	—	—
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	87
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	87
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	87
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	87
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	87
Chris McElvain R 2023 · 4.76 FIP	22	SP	4.76	15.8%	11.6%	2.8%	.275	5.24	15.8%	4.7%	198	+0.48	4.07	294	86
John Klein R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	21	SP	4.47	17.4%	11.4%	2.5%	.287	4.09	19.4%	9.7%	290	-0.38	3.21	343	86
Jack Noble R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	23	SP	4.42	16.5%	13.1%	1.9%	.258	6.03	20.3%	8.2%	58	+1.61	4.42	125	86
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	86
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	85
Tommy Mace R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	23	SP	5.47	16.0%	12.1%	4.0%	.261	5.04	14.6%	2.7%	376	-0.43	4.86	501	85
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	85
Evan Johnson R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	22	SP	4.42	15.3%	14.2%	1.5%	.287	4.56	25.7%	8.6%	65	+0.14	4.42	103	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	84
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	84
Jake Madden R 2023 · 5.46 FIP	21	SP	5.46	15.9%	15.2%	3.2%	.299	4.57	14.1%	-1.1%	44	-0.89	4.57	123	83
Henry Williams R 2023 · 5.59 FIP	21	SP	5.59	16.5%	14.2%	3.8%	.271	4.67	16.8%	7.0%	338	-0.92	4.16	404	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	83
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	83
Dylan Burns R 2022 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP	4.21	17.1%	10.8%	2.2%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.66	4.21	120	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	91	18.8%	11.4%	1.07	4.86
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04