Garrett Stratton

Garrett Stratton P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 198 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.5 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.10

FIP4.10

K%24.8%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%16.3%

ROS IP37

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†6060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.4M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Arb-1	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2032	Arb-2	$1M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.3M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2025	21	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
2025	21	A RAW	St. Lucie Mets	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	46	0	63	255	84	16	5	0%	1.4	26.9%	7.6%	19.3%	2.6%	2.44	3.20	—
YTD	22	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	46	0	63	255	84	16	5	0%	1.4	26.9%	7.6%	19.3%	2.6%	2.44	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	NYM	21	0	30	129	44	15	3	0%	1.4	34.1%	11.6%	22.5%	2.3%	2.73	2.97	—
2026	22	AA RAW	NYM	23	0	30	111	38	1	2	0%	1.3	34.2%	0.9%	33.3%	1.8%	1.52	1.31	—
2026	22	AAA RAW	NYM	2	0	3	15	2	0	0	0%	1.6	13.3%	0.0%	13.3%	0.0%	8.10	1.97	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	NYM	61	0	64	269	68	22	8	0%	1.0	25.4%	8.2%	17.1%	2.9%	4.04	3.99	+0.4
2028	24	MLB MLE	NYM	62	0	65	276	71	22	8	0%	1.1	25.8%	8.1%	17.7%	2.9%	3.98	3.93	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	NYM	63	0	66	279	73	22	8	0%	1.0	26.0%	8.0%	18.0%	2.9%	3.93	3.89	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	NYM	63	0	66	279	73	22	8	0%	1.0	26.2%	8.0%	18.1%	2.9%	3.90	3.88	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	NYM	62	0	65	275	72	22	8	0%	1.0	26.1%	8.1%	18.1%	3.0%	3.91	3.92	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	NYM	60	0	63	266	69	22	8	0%	1.1	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	3.1%	3.97	4.00	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	NYM	30	0	32	135	34	11	4	0%	1.1	25.4%	8.2%	17.1%	2.9%	4.04	3.99	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	NYM	44	0	46	194	50	16	6	0%	1.0	25.8%	8.1%	17.7%	2.9%	3.98	3.93	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	NYM	51	0	54	228	59	18	7	0%	1.1	26.0%	8.0%	18.0%	2.9%	3.93	3.89	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	NYM	55	0	58	245	64	20	7	0%	1.1	26.2%	8.0%	18.1%	2.9%	3.90	3.88	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	NYM	56	0	59	249	65	20	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	8.1%	18.1%	2.9%	3.91	3.92	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	NYM	55	0	58	245	64	20	7	0%	1.1	26.0%	8.2%	17.8%	3.0%	3.97	4.00	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		292	0	307	1294	336	105	38	0%	1.0	26.0%	8.1%	17.9%	2.9%	3.94	3.55	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	219	69	25	0%	1.1	26.0%	8.1%	17.9%	2.9%	3.94	3.55	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		47	0	64	260	69	19	7	0%	1.4	26.4%	7.5%	18.9%	2.5%	2.40	3.20	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	0	200	817	216	61	21	0%	1.4	26.4%	7.5%	18.9%	2.5%	2.40	3.20	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Garrett Stratton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.10	24.8%	8.5%	3.0%	—	3.94	25.7%	17.6%	195	-0.16	—	—	—
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	90
Eric Orze R 2021 · 3.47 FIP	23	SU	3.47	26.9%	7.6%	3.1%	.284	4.24	26.7%	15.9%	170	+0.77	3.42	351	89
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	88
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	88
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	87
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	87
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	87
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	87
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	86
Lucas Wepf R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	27.6%	10.7%	2.7%	.323	3.97	26.2%	13.8%	136	+0.35	2.90	195	86
Zach Agnos R 2023 · 3.15 FIP	22	SU	3.15	22.8%	6.9%	2.0%	.265	3.86	17.7%	9.7%	166	+0.71	2.73	218	86
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	86
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	86
Matt Seelinger R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	23	SU	4.60	25.8%	9.2%	4.6%	.320	4.24	28.3%	14.1%	83	-0.36	3.13	368	86
John Russell R 2018 · 3.98 FIP	22	SU	3.98	22.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.232	4.76	24.0%	11.2%	60	+0.78	3.94	158	86
J.B. Wendelken R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	23.3%	7.1%	2.5%	.288	3.85	27.2%	16.4%	124	+0.46	3.08	393	86
Eli Villalobos R 2021 · 3.75 FIP	24	SU	3.75	28.1%	9.6%	3.3%	.337	4.88	22.7%	9.7%	153	+1.13	3.75	214	85
Zack Weiss R 2015 · 3.27 FIP	23	SU	3.27	27.1%	7.0%	2.9%	.299	4.43	22.5%	8.0%	39	+1.16	3.05	368	85
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	85
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	61	25.8%	8.1%	1.14	3.97
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68