Eric Orze — OGILVIE

Eric Orze P Minnesota Twins

+0.5 WAR

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.5 · 2026

ERA3.75

FIP4.23

xFIP4.44

SIERA4.14

K%25.0%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%14.5%

IP66

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2026

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†6060

FB Velo

p4193.9

Whiff%

p6127.0%

p5222.5%

xwOBA vs

p650.297

SL (14%)

CU (6%)

FB (23%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	23	AAA	Syracuse Mets	34	0	50	202	67	14	5	26.9%	7.6%	3.0%	3.08	3.46	+0.8
2022	24	AAA	Syracuse Mets	34	0	50	208	69	13	11	28.6%	6.9%	6.0%	4.83	4.84	+0.1
2023	25	AAA	Syracuse Mets	39	1	61	272	81	41	6	26.2%	15.8%	2.4%	5.31	4.22	+0.5
2024	26	MLB	New York Mets	45	0	63	268	85	33	9	28.8%	12.7%	3.3%	3.41	4.07	+0.7
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	57	0	70	291	77	28	8	24.9%	9.8%	2.4%	2.69	3.56	+1.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	Minnesota Twins	7	0	8	33	5	4	0	—	—	—	3.52	—	—
ROS	28	MLB	MIN	58	—	58	247	62	28	7	25.1%	11.3%	2.9%	3.73	4.38	+0.4
2026 Total	28	MLB	MIN	—	—	66	280	67	32	7	23.9%	11.4%	2.5%	3.71	3.87	+0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	MIN	12	12	65	273	63	31	8	23.2%	11.2%	2.8%	4.18	4.47	+0.4
2028	30	MLB	MIN	11	11	63	265	60	30	8	22.7%	11.2%	2.9%	4.40	4.55	+0.3
2029	31	MLB	MIN	11	11	60	255	56	29	7	22.1%	11.2%	2.9%	4.54	4.65	+0.2
2030	32	MLB	MIN	58	—	58	245	53	28	7	21.5%	11.3%	3.0%	4.66	4.75	+0.1
2031	33	MLB	MIN	56	—	56	234	49	27	7	20.9%	11.5%	3.1%	4.79	4.88	+0.0
2032	34	MLB	MIN	53	—	53	223	45	26	7	20.2%	11.7%	3.2%	4.93	5.02	-0.0
2033	35	MLB	MIN	50	—	50	210	41	25	7	19.4%	11.9%	3.3%	5.07	5.17	-0.1
2034	36	MLB	MIN	46	—	46	196	37	24	7	18.6%	12.2%	3.4%	5.23	5.33	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			216	1	302	1274	340	139	41	26.7%	10.9%	3.2%	3.81	4.00	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—			143	1	200	843	225	92	27	26.7%	10.9%	3.2%	3.81	4.00	+3.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eric Orze (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.38	25.1%	11.3%	2.9%	—	4.55	22.7%	11.4%	188	+0.17	—	—	—
Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.56 FIP	29	SW	3.56	21.4%	11.1%	1.6%	.330	3.23	21.3%	12.5%	114	-0.33	2.83	228	87
Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.82 FIP	28	SW	4.82	20.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.275	6.70	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+1.88	3.88	180	86
Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.72 FIP	30	SW	3.72	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.88	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	86
Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.72 FIP	28	SW	3.72	20.2%	9.8%	2.0%	.333	4.05	17.7%	10.2%	75	+0.33	3.70	147	86
Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	28	SW	4.38	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.82	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.44	4.38	101	85
Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP	28	SW	3.34	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.07	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.73	3.25	150	84
Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.78 FIP	28	SW	4.78	16.5%	9.9%	3.3%	.297	3.85	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.93	3.85	102	84
Luis Mateo R 2025 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	17.6%	11.2%	2.8%	.309	5.45	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.87	3.47	160	83
Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.83 FIP	27	SW	3.83	22.4%	11.9%	2.0%	.247	3.31	21.7%	11.9%	47	-0.52	3.31	159	83
Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.30 FIP	30	SW	4.30	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.87	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.43	3.01	260	83
Collin Baumgartner R 2024 · 3.76 FIP	26	SW	3.76	23.9%	12.3%	2.0%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	117	83
Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.85 FIP	28	SU	4.85	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.87	18.2%	10.2%	272	-0.98	3.45	315	82
Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.41 FIP	29	SW	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.31	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.90	3.41	104	82
Ariel Peña R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	28	SW	3.96	22.5%	12.0%	2.3%	.304	6.07	19.9%	-5.7%	21	+2.11	3.79	223	82
Sam Dyson R 2026 · 3.42 FIP	28	SW	3.42	19.3%	8.1%	1.7%	.287	3.85	18.9%	11.9%	187	+0.43	2.67	333	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.83 FIP	30	SU	4.83	18.6%	12.2%	3.2%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.52	1.30	218	81
Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 4.01 FIP	28	SW	4.01	17.2%	8.8%	2.3%	.309	4.10	21.2%	13.3%	48	+0.09	3.18	253	81
Gonzalez Germen R 2026 · 3.94 FIP	28	SW	3.94	19.2%	10.9%	2.0%	.292	3.68	15.5%	6.9%	16	-0.26	3.68	146	81
A.J. Schugel R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	28	SW	3.96	20.1%	8.1%	2.8%	.307	6.39	17.6%	10.6%	13	+2.43	2.85	299	81
Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	28	SW	3.52	22.6%	9.0%	2.2%	.327	4.82	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.30	2.39	676	81

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.