Eric Orze
P
Minnesota Twins
Age 28
RHP
6'4" / 205 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 9 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 88
ERA3.62
FIP3.82
K%22.5%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%11.4%
ROS IP9
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p2692.8
Whiff%
p2521.8%
K%
p2819.0%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
SL (14%)
CU (9%)
FB (26%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 50 | 202 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.9% | 7.6% | 19.3% | 3.2% | 3.08 | 3.53 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 50 | 202 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.2% | 6.9% | 26.2% | 2.5% | 3.08 | 2.56 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 50 | 208 | 69 | 13 | 11 | 0% | 1.5 | 28.6% | 6.9% | 21.7% | 5.8% | 4.83 | 4.73 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 0 | 50 | 208 | 69 | 13 | 11 | 0% | 1.5 | 33.2% | 6.2% | 26.9% | 5.3% | 4.83 | 3.97 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 39 | 1 | 61 | 272 | 81 | 41 | 6 | 3% | 1.6 | 26.2% | 15.8% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 5.31 | 4.22 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 39 | 1 | 61 | 272 | 81 | 41 | 6 | 3% | 1.6 | 29.8% | 15.1% | 14.7% | 2.2% | 5.31 | 3.74 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 85 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.8% | 12.7% | 16.1% | 3.1% | 3.41 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 63 | 268 | 85 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.7% | 12.3% | 19.4% | 3.4% | 3.41 | 3.83 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 70 | 291 | 77 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.9% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 2.3% | 2.69 | 3.50 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 70 | 291 | 77 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.2 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 16.8% | 2.7% | 2.69 | 3.58 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 36 | 0 | 41 | 189 | 36 | 19 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 0.5% | 5.66 | 3.06 | +0.7 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 0 | 9 | 40 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 3.82 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | MIN | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | 3.62 | 3.82 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 51 | 229 | 45 | 23 | 2 | — | — | 19.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 0.8% | 5.29 | 3.20 | +0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 51 | 214 | 45 | 23 | 2 | — | — | 21.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 0.9% | 5.29 | 3.19 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 68 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.17 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 64 | 0 | 68 | 286 | 62 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.52 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | MIN | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 65 | 32 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 11.4% | 2.4% | 4.17 | 4.32 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | MIN | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 59 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.52 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 206 | 0 | 227 | 978 | 210 | 106 | 21 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 4.40 | 3.84 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 182 | 0 | 200 | 863 | 185 | 93 | 19 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.6% | 2.2% | 4.40 | 3.84 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 245 | 1 | 336 | 1430 | 371 | 154 | 41 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.9% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 3.85 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 146 | 1 | 200 | 851 | 221 | 92 | 24 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.9% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Eric Orze (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.34 | 25.6% | 11.6% | 2.8% | — | 4.42 | 22.2% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Al Alburquerque R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.58 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.18 | 21.3% | 12.5% | 114 | -0.40 | 2.76 | 228 | 87 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2028 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 85 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .333 | 4.06 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.44 | 3.62 | 147 | 85 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.36 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.03 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.67 | 3.27 | 150 | 85 |
| Grant Sides R 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.89 | 22.4% | 11.9% | 2.1% | .247 | 3.24 | 21.7% | 11.9% | 47 | -0.65 | 3.24 | 159 | 84 |
| Dalier Hinojosa R 2027 · 3.56 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.56 | 20.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .283 | 4.38 | 18.7% | 6.1% | 24 | +0.82 | 3.56 | 104 | 83 |
| Chaz Roe R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.16 | 20.7% | 8.4% | 1.3% | .300 | 2.78 | 28.4% | 20.7% | 140 | -0.38 | 1.69 | 257 | 83 |
| Javy Guerra R 2028 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 83 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 83 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.49 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.55 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.06 | 2.51 | 137 | 83 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .271 | 2.99 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.51 | 544 | 82 |
| Joe Colón J R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.04 | 20.4% | 12.1% | 2.1% | .315 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 113 | 82 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.34 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.31 | 166 | 82 |
| Tyler Sturdevant R 2027 · 4.07 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.07 | 21.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .241 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 118 | -0.01 | 3.28 | 149 | 82 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 82 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2028 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 82 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.96 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.96 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 3.8% | .275 | 7.33 | 13.9% | -1.9% | 30 | +2.37 | 3.78 | 180 | 82 |
| Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 22.6% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .327 | 4.77 | 20.9% | 11.8% | 74 | +1.31 | 2.32 | 676 | 81 |
| Ronald Peña R 2025 · 4.51 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.51 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .355 | 4.54 | 16.5% | 6.1% | 39 | +0.03 | 3.57 | 187 | 81 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.39 | 17.7% | 11.2% | 2.5% | .263 | 4.65 | 15.7% | 9.0% | 48 | +0.26 | 4.39 | 101 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 23.1% | 11.3% | 1.01 | 4.24 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |
| Randall Delgado ('17) | 3 | 70 | 22.2% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 3.78 |
| Santiago Casilla ('18) | 4 | 52 | 23.5% | 9.6% | 0.96 | 3.49 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |