Eric Orze

P Minnesota Twins

Age 29 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MIX2 levels	45	63	3.41	3.83	31.7%	12.3%	0.5	K 28.1% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.88
2025	27	MIX2 levels	57	70	2.69	3.58	26.5%	9.6%	0.8	K 24.7% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.52
2026	28	MIX2 levels	55	64	4.48	3.19	20.7%	8.1%	1.0	K 19.7% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.33
2027PROJ	29	MLBMIN	35	37	4.15	4.26	21.8%	9.7%	0.1
2028PROJ88% MLB	30	MLBMIN	29	30	4.34	4.47	21.3%	10.0%	0.0
2029PROJ90% MLB	31	MLBMIN	21	22	4.54	4.69	20.7%	10.3%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs49

K%28

FB Velo26

CompsJoe Nelson (age 31) · Neil Wagner (age 29) · Tyler Walker (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.15

FIP4.26

K%21.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.1%

Proj IP44

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p2692.8

Whiff%

p2521.8%

p2819.0%

xwOBA vs

p490.313

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	50	202	67	14	5	0%	1.5	26.9%	7.6%	19.3%	3.1%	3.08	3.47	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	50	202	67	14	5	0%	1.5	33.2%	6.9%	26.2%	2.5%	3.08	2.56	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	50	208	69	13	11	0%	1.5	28.6%	6.9%	21.7%	5.9%	4.83	4.83	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	50	208	69	13	11	0%	1.5	33.2%	6.2%	26.9%	5.3%	4.83	3.97	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	39	1	61	272	81	41	6	3%	1.6	25.6%	13.6%	12.0%	2.4%	5.31	3.98	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	39	1	61	272	81	41	6	3%	1.6	29.8%	15.1%	14.7%	2.2%	5.31	3.74	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	63	268	85	33	9	0%	1.4	28.1%	10.9%	17.3%	3.2%	3.41	3.88	+0.5
2024	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	63	268	85	33	9	0%	1.4	28.1%	10.9%	17.3%	3.2%	3.41	3.88	+0.5
2024	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	63	268	85	33	9	0%	1.4	31.7%	12.3%	19.4%	3.4%	3.41	3.83	+0.5
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	70	291	77	28	8	0%	1.2	24.7%	9.3%	15.4%	2.4%	2.69	3.52	+0.9
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	57	0	70	291	77	28	8	0%	1.2	24.7%	9.3%	15.4%	2.4%	2.69	3.52	+0.9
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	57	0	70	291	77	28	8	0%	1.2	26.5%	9.6%	16.8%	2.7%	2.69	3.58	+0.8
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	64	270	56	22	4	0%	1.2	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	1.6%	4.48	3.33	+0.9
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	64	270	56	22	4	0%	1.2	19.7%	8.0%	11.7%	1.6%	4.48	3.33	+0.9
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	64	270	56	22	4	0%	1.2	20.7%	8.1%	12.6%	1.5%	4.48	3.19	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			71	0	85	378	77	39	6	0%	1.2	20.4%	10.3%	10.1%	1.6%	4.68	3.58	+1.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	MIN	35	0	37	156	34	15	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	2.5%	4.15	4.26	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	MIN	32	0	34	141	30	14	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	2.8%	4.34	4.47	+0.0
2029	31	MLB MLE	MIN	23	0	25	104	21	11	3	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.69	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	MIN	29	0	30	127	27	13	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	10.0%	11.3%	2.8%	4.34	4.47	+0.0
2029	31	MLB CTX	MIN	21	0	22	93	19	10	3	0%	1.0	20.7%	10.3%	10.4%	3.0%	4.54	4.69	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		120	0	136	597	123	61	12	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	2.1%	4.58	3.79	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		176	0	200	875	180	89	18	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.2%	10.4%	2.1%	4.58	3.79	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		264	1	359	1511	384	144	45	0%	1.4	25.4%	9.6%	15.8%	3.0%	3.94	3.81	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	1	200	842	214	80	25	0%	1.4	25.4%	9.6%	15.8%	3.0%	3.94	3.81	+1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASt. Paul Saints · 23 IPFIP 3.52 → 3.97 (+0.45)K% 24.7% → 21.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.69%	—	×0.860	21.23%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.70%	—	×0.900	3.33%
HR / BF /BF	3.70%	÷1.000	×1.100	4.07%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.52 → 3.97, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 29 IPFIP 3.40 → 3.28 (−0.12)K% 32.7% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.74%	—	×0.860	28.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.85%	—	×0.900	7.96%
HR / BF /BF	3.54%	÷1.380	×1.100	2.82%

Result: FIP 3.40 → 3.28, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASyracuse Mets · 62 IPFIP 3.58 → 3.88 (+0.30)K% 32.7% → 28.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.68%	—	×0.860	28.11%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.06%	—	×0.900	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	3.11%	÷1.059	×1.100	3.23%

Result: FIP 3.58 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASyracuse Mets · 61 IPFIP 3.71 → 3.98 (+0.28)K% 29.8% → 25.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	29.78%	—	×0.860	25.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.07%	—	×0.900	13.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.21%	÷1.003	×1.100	2.42%

Result: FIP 3.71 → 3.98, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASyracuse Mets · 47 IPFIP 4.26 → 4.83 (+0.57)K% 32.5% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.49%	—	×0.880	28.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.60%	—	×1.050	6.93%
HR / BF /BF	5.58%	÷1.033	×1.100	5.95%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.26 → 4.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 20 IPFIP 2.71 → 3.88 (+1.17)K% 30.2% → 23.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.23%	—	×0.770	23.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.98%	—	×1.150	8.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.33%	÷0.925	×1.250	3.14%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 85).

Result: FIP 2.71 → 3.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 17 IPFIP 1.76 → 2.73 (+0.97)K% 37.9% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.88%	—	×0.810	30.68%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	1.52%	—	×1.100	1.67%
HR / BF /BF	3.03%	÷0.995	×1.200	3.66%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 1.76 → 2.73, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAASyracuse Mets · 12 IPFIP 3.27 → 3.75 (+0.48)K% 32.0% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.00%	—	×0.880	28.16%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.00%	—	×1.050	14.70%
HR / BF /BF	2.00%	÷1.039	×1.100	2.12%

Result: FIP 3.27 → 3.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eric Orze (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	21.8%	9.7%	2.5%	—	4.56	21.0%	10.9%	58	+0.30	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	87
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	86
Tyler Walker R 2005 · 4.19 FIP	29	SU	4.19	19.4%	7.5%	3.2%	.303	3.61	19.7%	11.3%	93	-0.58	2.38	289	85
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	83
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	83
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	82
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	82
Dalier Hinojosa R 2015 · 3.41 FIP	29	SU	3.41	20.4%	9.8%	1.4%	.283	4.30	18.7%	6.1%	24	+0.89	3.41	104	82
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	82
Matt Lindstrom R 2009 · 4.12 FIP	29	SU	4.12	17.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.320	3.16	17.7%	11.7%	154	-0.96	2.40	443	81
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	81
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	81
Kevin Gryboski R 2003 · 3.67 FIP	29	SU	3.67	16.8%	8.9%	1.6%	.295	3.92	9.4%	0.2%	82	+0.25	3.67	178	80
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	80
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	80
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	79
Justin Miller R 2016 · 3.74 FIP	29	SU	3.74	20.8%	9.7%	2.1%	.353	4.72	22.5%	16.5%	127	+0.98	2.63	292	79
Mark Serrano R 2016 · 3.16 FIP	30	SU	3.16	17.7%	6.5%	1.3%	.290	4.36	21.1%	14.0%	88	+1.20	3.16	120	79
Marc Magliaro R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	28	SU	3.94	19.6%	7.3%	2.9%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.94	125	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	37	20.9%	10.5%	0.85	4.47
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Ray Searage ('81-'90, 4 WAR*)	1.4	41	21.0%*	10.8%*	0.84*	3.70*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44