Matt Seelinger
P
Toledo Mud Hens
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION41 act + 63 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117108vR 98
ERA4.30
FIP4.30
K%26.2%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%16.1%
ROS IP63
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 36 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 67 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 25.8% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 4.4% | 2.80 | 4.51 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 36 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 67 | 15 | 7 | 0% | 1.2 | 34.9% | 7.8% | 27.1% | 3.6% | 2.80 | 3.14 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 51 | 225 | 76 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 27.9% | 10.3% | 17.6% | 1.8% | 5.86 | 3.06 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 51 | 225 | 76 | 20 | 4 | 0% | 1.7 | 33.8% | 8.9% | 24.9% | 1.8% | 5.86 | 2.31 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 36 | 0 | 41 | 180 | 64 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.8% | 18.3% | 10.5% | 4.7% | 3.07 | 5.59 | — |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 36 | 0 | 41 | 180 | 64 | 30 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 35.6% | 16.7% | 18.9% | 3.3% | 3.07 | 4.08 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 2 | 64 | 280 | 79 | 36 | 6 | 4% | 1.4 | 22.3% | 14.2% | 8.2% | 2.4% | 3.38 | 4.33 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 2 | 64 | 280 | 79 | 36 | 6 | 4% | 1.4 | 28.2% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 2.1% | 3.38 | 3.54 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 21 | 0 | 27 | 109 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 3.71 | 6.17 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 21 | 0 | 27 | 109 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.7% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 5.5% | 3.71 | 5.28 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 20 | 0 | 27 | 109 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 34.2% | 9.1% | 25.1% | 3.7% | 1.65 | 3.42 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 20 | 0 | 27 | 109 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 42.2% | 8.3% | 33.9% | 2.8% | 1.65 | 2.15 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 66 | 264 | 75 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 3.2% | 2.74 | 4.06 | — |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 47 | 0 | 66 | 264 | 75 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 28.4% | 9.5% | 18.9% | 2.3% | 2.74 | 3.15 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | New York Mets | 28 | 1 | 41 | 182 | 51 | 23 | 6 | 4% | 1.5 | 25.8% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 5.23 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYM | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 70 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | NYM | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 70 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 3.2% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 31 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 104 | 448 | 121 | 50 | 15 | — | — | 26.9% | 11.1% | 15.8% | 3.2% | 4.67 | 4.28 | +1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 31 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 65 | 275 | 121 | 50 | 15 | — | — | 43.9% | 18.2% | 25.8% | 5.3% | 7.49 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 65 | 26 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 58 | 25 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 3.7% | 4.63 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | NYM | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 61 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.5% | 10.4% | 15.0% | 3.4% | 4.44 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | NYM | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 54 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.8% | 10.8% | 14.0% | 3.7% | 4.63 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 166 | 0 | 175 | 744 | 188 | 80 | 26 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.24 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 852 | 215 | 92 | 30 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.3% | 10.7% | 14.5% | 3.5% | 4.76 | 4.24 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 265 | 3 | 362 | 1541 | 398 | 185 | 53 | 1% | 1.4 | 25.8% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 3.61 | 4.32 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 2 | 200 | 852 | 220 | 102 | 29 | 1% | 1.4 | 25.8% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 3.4% | 3.61 | 4.32 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Seelinger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 26.2% | 10.1% | 3.2% | — | 4.64 | 25.2% | 14.6% | 115 | +0.34 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 89 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 88 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 87 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 86 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 84 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 84 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 83 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 83 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 82 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 81 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 81 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 80 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.36 | 28.1% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .269 | 3.84 | 28.4% | 21.3% | 195 | +0.48 | 2.61 | 339 | 79 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 79 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 79 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 78 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 27.5% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.93 | 28.0% | 19.4% | 191 | +0.04 | 2.49 | 417 | 78 |
| Simon Castro R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.04 | 28.3% | 10.3% | 3.7% | .256 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 185 | 77 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 77 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 77 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 60 | 25.5% | 10.4% | 1.32 | 4.45 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |