Matt Seelinger
P
Toledo Mud Hens
+0.4
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'3" / 190 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.7%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%14.8%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4545
CMD5555
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 23 | A | Bowling Green Hot Rods | 36 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 67 | 15 | 7 | 25.8% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 2.80 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | A+ | Charlotte Stone Crabs | 30 | 0 | 51 | 225 | 76 | 20 | 4 | 27.9% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 5.86 | 3.12 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | 36 | 0 | 41 | 180 | 64 | 30 | 6 | 28.8% | 18.3% | 4.4% | 3.07 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2022 | 27 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 47 | 2 | 64 | 280 | 79 | 36 | 6 | 22.3% | 14.2% | 2.6% | 3.38 | 4.41 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 28 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 21 | 0 | 27 | 109 | 28 | 12 | 6 | 20.8% | 12.1% | 6.4% | 3.71 | 6.38 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 29 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 20 | 0 | 27 | 109 | 46 | 9 | 3 | 34.2% | 9.1% | 3.6% | 1.65 | 3.33 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 47 | 0 | 66 | 264 | 75 | 25 | 6 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 2.74 | 3.81 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 5 | 0 | 9 | 33 | 11 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.04 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | DET | 47 | — | 47 | 197 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 25.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | DET | — | — | 55 | 230 | 61 | 22 | 6 | 26.5% | 9.7% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.58 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | DET | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 47 | 19 | 6 | 24.8% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.34 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | DET | 43 | — | 43 | 181 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 24.4% | 10.0% | 3.2% | 4.39 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | DET | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 41 | 17 | 6 | 24.0% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.48 | 4.54 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | DET | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 23.6% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.58 | 4.66 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | DET | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 35 | 16 | 5 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 3.5% | 4.71 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 242 | 2 | 329 | 1392 | 362 | 166 | 46 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 3.34 | 4.24 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 147 | 1 | 200 | 846 | 220 | 101 | 28 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 3.3% | 3.34 | 4.24 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Matt Seelinger (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 25.3% | 9.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.44 | 24.4% | 14.4% | 128 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 87 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 86 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 85 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 85 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 85 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.98 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.60 | 3.38 | 212 | 83 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 82 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.39 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.70 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.31 | 2.80 | 410 | 82 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 80 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 80 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 79 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 79 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 79 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 78 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 78 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 78 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 78 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 78 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 77 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 77 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.