Matt Seelinger — OGILVIE

Matt Seelinger P Syracuse Mets

Age 31 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION61 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.14

FIP4.14

K%25.3%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%16.5%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

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CMD5555

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	23	A MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	36	0	45	192	67	15	7	0%	1.2	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	4.6%	2.80	4.60	—
2018	23	A RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	36	0	45	192	67	15	7	0%	1.2	34.9%	7.8%	27.1%	3.6%	2.80	3.14	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	51	225	76	20	4	0%	1.7	27.9%	10.3%	17.6%	2.0%	5.86	3.13	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	51	225	76	20	4	0%	1.7	33.8%	8.9%	24.9%	1.8%	5.86	2.31	—
2021	26	AA MLE	Richmond Flying Squirrels	36	0	41	180	64	30	6	0%	1.1	28.8%	18.3%	10.5%	4.3%	3.07	5.37	—
2021	26	AA RAW	Richmond Flying Squirrels	36	0	41	180	64	30	6	0%	1.1	35.6%	16.7%	18.9%	3.3%	3.07	4.08	—
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	2	64	280	79	36	6	4%	1.4	22.3%	14.2%	8.2%	2.5%	3.38	4.39	—
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	2	64	280	79	36	6	4%	1.4	28.2%	12.9%	15.4%	2.1%	3.38	3.54	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	21	0	27	109	28	12	6	0%	1.3	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	6.3%	3.71	6.33	—
2023	28	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	21	0	27	109	28	12	6	0%	1.3	20.8%	12.1%	8.7%	6.3%	3.71	6.33	—
2023	28	AA RAW	Reading Fightin Phils	21	0	27	109	28	12	6	0%	1.3	25.7%	11.0%	14.7%	5.5%	3.71	5.28	—
2024	29	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	20	0	27	109	46	9	3	0%	1.4	34.2%	9.1%	25.1%	3.5%	1.65	3.29	—
2024	29	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	20	0	27	109	46	9	3	0%	1.4	34.2%	9.1%	25.1%	3.5%	1.65	3.29	—
2024	29	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	20	0	27	109	46	9	3	0%	1.4	42.2%	8.3%	33.9%	2.8%	1.65	2.15	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	66	264	75	25	6	0%	1.4	23.4%	8.8%	14.7%	2.8%	2.74	3.78	—
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	66	264	75	25	6	0%	1.4	23.4%	8.8%	14.7%	2.8%	2.74	3.78	—
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	66	264	75	25	6	0%	1.4	28.4%	9.5%	18.9%	2.3%	2.74	3.15	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	2	15	2	4	1	0%	2.0	13.3%	26.7%	-13.3%	6.7%	31.50	13.60	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	41	1	61	263	72	36	12	2%	1.5	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	4.9%	5.04	5.27	—
YTD	31	MLB MLE	New York Mets	41	1	61	263	72	36	12	2%	1.5	23.4%	11.6%	11.8%	4.9%	5.04	5.27	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	31	AAA RAW	NYM	40	1	59	248	70	32	11	2%	1.5	28.2%	12.9%	15.3%	4.4%	4.14	4.79	—
2026	31	MLB RAW	NYM	1	0	2	15	2	4	1	0%	2.0	13.3%	26.7%	-13.3%	6.7%	31.50	9.01	—
SO FAR	31	MLB RAW	NYM	1	0	2	15	2	4	1	0%	2.0	13.3%	26.7%	-13.3%	6.7%	31.50	9.01	—
ROS	31	MLB MLE	NYM	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	3.1%	4.14	4.14	+0.0
ROS	31	MLB CTX	NYM	6	0	6	25	6	2	1	0%	1.0	25.3%	8.8%	16.5%	3.1%	4.14	4.14	+0.0
2026 TOT	31	MLB MLE	NYM	—	—	67	288	78	38	13	—	—	27.2%	13.3%	13.9%	4.4%	4.96	5.17	-0.4
FULL	31	MLB A+C	NYM	—	—	8	33	78	38	13	—	—	234.5%	114.4%	120.1%	38.2%	41.79	18.77	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	NYM	57	0	60	254	63	24	8	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.3%	15.4%	3.3%	4.29	4.38	+0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	NYM	53	0	55	233	56	23	8	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.7%	14.3%	3.6%	4.49	4.63	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	NYM	54	0	57	241	59	22	8	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.3%	15.4%	3.3%	4.29	4.38	+0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	NYM	50	0	52	220	53	21	8	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.7%	14.3%	3.6%	4.49	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	0	118	503	121	50	18	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.5%	4.83	4.25	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	0	200	856	206	85	31	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.0%	14.1%	3.5%	4.83	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		278	3	381	1622	410	190	59	1%	1.4	25.3%	11.7%	13.6%	3.6%	3.66	4.45	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	2	200	851	215	100	31	1%	1.4	25.3%	11.7%	13.6%	3.6%	3.66	4.45	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Seelinger (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	25.3%	8.8%	3.1%	—	4.50	24.4%	14.9%	115	+0.36	—	—	—
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	90
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	89
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	88
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	86
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	86
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	85
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	82
Blake Wood R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	31	SU	3.44	25.3%	9.3%	2.4%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	210	82
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	31	SU	3.07	22.5%	9.7%	1.1%	.298	5.78	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.71	3.07	148	81
Pedro Beato R 2018 · 3.71 FIP	31	SU	3.71	21.1%	6.4%	2.9%	.266	3.49	16.8%	9.3%	29	-0.22	3.47	295	81
Ryan Brasier R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	31	SU	4.12	25.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.278	3.56	24.3%	18.2%	99	-0.56	2.31	426	81
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	80
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	80
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	80
Blake Parker R 2016 · 3.21 FIP	31	SU	3.21	28.1%	8.5%	2.5%	.269	3.73	28.4%	21.3%	195	+0.52	2.52	339	79
Jumbo Diaz R 2015 · 3.16 FIP	31	SU	3.16	25.2%	6.0%	2.6%	.286	3.65	21.9%	12.2%	152	+0.49	2.80	284	79
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	79
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	79
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	78
Brad Brach R 2017 · 3.36 FIP	31	SU	3.36	25.5%	9.1%	2.3%	.254	3.68	22.8%	11.1%	129	+0.32	2.69	410	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	60	24.7%	9.2%	1.27	4.30
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Félix Peña ('20)	1.2	62	23.6%	8.3%	1.37	4.46