Grant Richardson (P, Stockton Ports) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Grant Richardson P Stockton Ports

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 220 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 6 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103111vR 119

ERA4.51

FIP4.51

K%23.4%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%12.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	4	2	9	46	14	8	0	50%	2.3	22.5%	20.5%	2.0%	0.0%	5.79	3.80	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Stockton Ports	4	2	9	46	14	8	0	50%	2.3	22.5%	20.5%	2.0%	0.0%	5.79	3.80	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	OAK	4	2	9	46	14	8	0	50%	2.3	30.4%	17.4%	13.0%	0.0%	5.79	2.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	OAK	4	4	20	84	20	8	2	100%	5.0	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.39	4.32	+0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	OAK	2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	5.0	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.39	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		2	2	10	42	10	4	1	100%	4.9	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.39	3.94	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		36	36	200	844	203	81	20	100%	5.5	24.1%	9.9%	14.2%	2.9%	4.39	3.94	+2.3
Career	—	MLE		4	2	9	46	10	9	0	50%	2.3	22.5%	20.5%	2.0%	0.0%	5.79	3.80	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		86	43	200	986	222	202	0	50%	2.3	22.5%	20.5%	2.0%	0.0%	5.79	3.80	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Richardson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.51	23.4%	10.8%	3.0%	—	4.32	24.1%	14.2%	20	-0.19	—	—	—
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	82
Felix Doubront L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	20.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.312	4.02	21.6%	11.6%	323	+0.02	3.44	719	76
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	74
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	74
Dana Eveland L 2006 · 4.00 FIP	22	SP-	4.00	22.7%	9.9%	2.8%	.385	3.97	14.8%	4.3%	212	-0.03	2.42	544	74
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.79	17.1%	7.8%	206	-0.85	2.95	250	73
Tommy Sommer L 2021 · 4.65 FIP	22	SP-	4.65	23.9%	9.3%	4.3%	.196	5.36	18.6%	6.1%	205	+0.71	4.28	230	73
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	368	73
Ryan Williamson L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	23	SP-	4.10	18.4%	5.9%	3.3%	.286	5.57	18.4%	5.8%	102	+1.47	4.10	123	72
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.60	22.3%	10.3%	152	-0.39	3.90	265	72
Sonny Vargas L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	20	SP-	4.54	21.0%	10.1%	3.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.20	165	72
Jack Patterson L 2018 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	14.7%	8.0%	3.4%	.299	3.10	19.4%	7.9%	80	-1.62	3.10	127	72
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	72
Jose Alvarez L 2013 · 5.02 FIP	24	SW	5.02	18.0%	8.7%	4.2%	.294	2.98	20.4%	14.8%	124	-2.04	2.78	414	71
Keyshawn Askew L 2022 · 3.32 FIP	22	SW	3.32	25.6%	12.2%	1.5%	.274	3.81	20.7%	5.5%	196	+0.49	3.32	262	71
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.25	20.9%	9.7%	219	-0.35	2.32	362	71
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	70
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	70
Mac Lardner L 2021 · 4.75 FIP	23	SP-	4.75	18.9%	8.5%	4.0%	.332	4.34	17.5%	8.1%	119	-0.41	3.66	186	70
Jack Owen L 2021 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	17.6%	5.0%	4.2%	.359	4.22	16.0%	8.7%	201	-0.36	3.44	221	70