Dylan Wilson
P
ACL Mariners
Age 20
RHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
ROK
peak 0.6 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 157148vR 139
ERA6.18
FIP6.18
K%12.0%
BB%16.3%
K-BB%-4.4%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 7 | 6 | 16 | 75 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 86% | 2.3 | 18.1% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 2.20 | 3.47 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 7 | 6 | 16 | 75 | 20 | 9 | 0 | 86% | 2.3 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 14.7% | 0.0% | 2.20 | 2.30 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 12 | 6 | 32 | 161 | 35 | 29 | 2 | 50% | 2.7 | 14.8% | 22.5% | -7.7% | 2.4% | 5.06 | 6.02 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 12 | 6 | 32 | 161 | 35 | 29 | 2 | 50% | 2.7 | 21.7% | 18.0% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 5.06 | 4.44 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 12 | 9 | 51 | 226 | 40 | 24 | 4 | 75% | 4.2 | 12.0% | 13.3% | -1.2% | 3.2% | 5.47 | 5.53 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 12 | 9 | 51 | 226 | 40 | 24 | 4 | 75% | 4.2 | 17.7% | 10.6% | 7.1% | 1.8% | 5.47 | 3.96 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 10 | 9 | 40 | 175 | 53 | 15 | 2 | 90% | 4.0 | 20.6% | 10.7% | 9.9% | 1.6% | 3.86 | 3.60 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | SEA | 7 | 7 | 32 | 133 | 16 | 22 | 4 | 100% | 4.5 | 12.0% | 16.3% | -4.4% | 3.0% | 6.18 | 6.18 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.0% | 16.3% | -4.4% | 3.0% | 6.18 | 6.18 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 71 | 308 | 69 | 37 | 6 | — | — | 22.4% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 1.9% | 4.89 | 4.74 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SEA | 7 | 7 | 33 | 140 | 20 | 21 | 4 | 100% | 4.7 | 14.4% | 14.8% | -0.4% | 2.9% | 5.85 | 5.75 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | SEA | 7 | 7 | 35 | 147 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 16.5% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.53 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 7 | 7 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 20 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 17.8% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 7 | 7 | 37 | 156 | 29 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 5.3 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 38 | 158 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 18.9% | 12.3% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.04 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 38 | 158 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 19.1% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.99 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 30 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 6.1 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.99 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 36 | 151 | 29 | 19 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 12.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SEA | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.4% | 14.8% | -0.4% | 2.9% | 5.85 | 5.75 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 25 | 106 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 5.0 | 16.5% | 13.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 5.53 | 5.39 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 30 | 127 | 23 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 17.8% | 12.9% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 5.17 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.5% | 12.5% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 5.13 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.9% | 12.3% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 5.04 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.1% | 12.2% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 4.99 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 28 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 19.0% | 12.3% | 6.7% | 2.8% | 4.99 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 34 | 144 | 27 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.9% | 12.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 43 | 43 | 243 | 1028 | 187 | 131 | 29 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.2% | 12.7% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.17 | 4.74 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 154 | 108 | 24 | 100% | 5.6 | 18.2% | 12.7% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 5.17 | 4.74 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 41 | 30 | 139 | 637 | 101 | 96 | 14 | 73% | 3.4 | 15.8% | 15.1% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 4.53 | 4.88 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 43 | 200 | 917 | 145 | 138 | 20 | 73% | 3.4 | 15.8% | 15.1% | 0.7% | 2.2% | 4.53 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Wilson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.18 | 12.0% | 16.3% | 3.0% | — | 5.43 | 16.3% | 2.5% | 104 | -0.75 | — | — | — |
| Denis Diaz R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.51 | 12.7% | 16.6% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.84 | 11.9% | -4.9% | 92 | +0.33 | 3.39 | 129 | 92 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2025 · 5.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | .297 | 5.96 | 17.0% | -6.4% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.61 | 204 | 92 |
| Camilo Sanchez R 2026 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 10.0% | 18.5% | 3.8% | .317 | 5.89 | 14.8% | 0.7% | 62 | -0.76 | 3.66 | 117 | 88 |
| Danny Flatt R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 87 |
| Ramon Santos R 2026 · 6.07 FIP | 20 | SP | 6.07 | 7.2% | 14.3% | 3.2% | .352 | 4.56 | 13.3% | 3.4% | 191 | -1.51 | 3.84 | 355 | 87 |
| Darlin Alcántara R 2026 · 6.12 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.12 | 12.3% | 22.2% | 2.3% | .320 | 4.61 | 12.3% | 2.5% | 31 | -1.51 | 3.61 | 118 | 86 |
| Trey Riley R 2027 · 6.03 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.03 | 10.6% | 19.0% | 2.6% | .344 | 6.14 | 17.4% | 5.2% | 74 | +0.11 | 4.48 | 227 | 86 |
| Jorge Bautista R 2026 · 5.99 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.99 | 13.1% | 16.5% | 3.5% | .297 | 4.83 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 231 | -1.16 | 3.69 | 336 | 85 |
| Josh Swales R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.43 | 11.8% | 14.6% | 2.7% | .356 | 5.63 | 15.1% | 1.4% | 66 | +0.20 | 5.43 | 129 | 85 |
| Luis Mateo R 2028 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 85 |
| Irv Carter R 2026 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 11.4% | 18.9% | 3.9% | .266 | 5.78 | 18.8% | 6.1% | 150 | -0.87 | 4.81 | 236 | 85 |
| Edrick Agosto R 2026 · 6.67 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.67 | 11.4% | 17.1% | 4.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 113 | 83 |
| Irwin Ramirez R 2025 · 7.04 FIP | 19 | SP- | 7.04 | 12.8% | 22.6% | 3.9% | .228 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.88 | 106 | 83 |
| Hunter Stratton R 2026 · 5.73 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.73 | 13.1% | 20.3% | 2.1% | .266 | 4.58 | 14.5% | 0.1% | 174 | -1.15 | 2.95 | 532 | 83 |
| Edinxon Arias R 2025 · 7.03 FIP | 19 | SP | 7.03 | 7.6% | 19.9% | 3.7% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 127 | 83 |
| Karsen Lindell R 2026 · 7.17 FIP | 20 | SP- | 7.17 | 4.3% | 20.7% | 3.3% | .326 | 6.72 | 9.8% | -9.2% | 54 | -0.45 | 4.94 | 112 | 82 |
| Jordany Chirinos R 2025 · 5.19 FIP | 19 | SP | 5.19 | 12.2% | 17.6% | 1.6% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 126 | 82 |
| Jeury Espinal R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.08 | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 114 | 82 |
| Kyle Larsen R 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.8% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .274 | 5.00 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 77 | -0.50 | 4.71 | 137 | 82 |
| Wilmer Blanco R 2026 · 5.93 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.93 | 14.9% | 16.3% | 3.7% | .364 | 5.18 | 15.1% | 6.8% | 30 | -0.75 | 3.99 | 145 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 9 | 36 | 17.3% | 13.2% | 1.11 | 5.32 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |