Dylan Wilson — OGILVIE

Dylan Wilson P ACL Mariners

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs ROK peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154146vR 138

ERA6.36

FIP6.36

K%12.0%

BB%17.9%

K-BB%-6.0%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL3535

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	7	6	16	75	20	9	0	86%	2.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	0.0%	2.20	3.47	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	7	6	16	75	20	9	0	86%	2.3	18.1%	15.0%	3.1%	0.0%	2.20	3.47	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	7	6	16	75	20	9	0	86%	2.3	26.7%	12.0%	14.7%	0.0%	2.20	2.30	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	6	32	161	35	29	2	50%	2.7	14.8%	22.5%	-7.7%	2.0%	5.06	5.81	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	6	32	161	35	29	2	50%	2.7	14.8%	22.5%	-7.7%	2.0%	5.06	5.81	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	6	32	161	35	29	2	50%	2.7	21.7%	18.0%	3.7%	1.2%	5.06	4.44	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	9	51	226	40	24	4	75%	4.2	12.0%	13.3%	-1.2%	2.8%	5.47	5.30	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	9	51	226	40	24	4	75%	4.2	12.0%	13.3%	-1.2%	2.8%	5.47	5.30	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	9	51	226	40	24	4	75%	4.2	17.7%	10.6%	7.1%	1.8%	5.47	3.96	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	18	16	65	304	78	34	5	89%	3.6	17.8%	13.7%	4.1%	2.2%	5.54	4.56	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	18	16	65	304	78	34	5	89%	3.6	17.8%	13.7%	4.1%	2.2%	5.54	4.56	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	SEA	12	10	45	204	61	20	3	83%	3.8	29.9%	9.8%	20.1%	1.5%	4.37	2.62	—
2026	20	A RAW	SEA	6	6	20	100	17	14	2	100%	3.3	17.0%	14.0%	3.0%	2.0%	8.24	4.54	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	67	282	41	45	8	100%	4.8	14.4%	16.0%	-1.6%	2.9%	5.99	5.88	-0.7
2028	22	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	70	296	49	43	8	100%	5.0	16.5%	14.5%	2.0%	2.8%	5.64	5.49	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	SEA	14	14	73	307	55	42	9	100%	5.2	17.8%	13.6%	4.2%	2.8%	5.38	5.24	-0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	75	315	58	41	9	100%	5.7	18.5%	13.0%	5.5%	2.8%	5.20	5.10	-0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	76	319	60	41	9	100%	5.8	18.9%	12.7%	6.1%	2.8%	5.09	5.02	-0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	SEA	13	13	76	319	61	40	9	100%	5.8	19.1%	12.7%	6.3%	2.8%	5.04	5.00	-0.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	74	314	60	40	9	100%	6.2	19.0%	12.8%	6.3%	2.8%	5.04	5.04	-0.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	72	305	58	39	9	100%	6.0	18.9%	12.9%	6.0%	2.9%	5.09	5.12	-0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	SEA	12	12	69	291	54	38	9	100%	5.8	18.7%	13.2%	5.5%	3.1%	5.19	5.25	-0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	65	274	50	37	9	100%	5.9	18.3%	13.5%	4.9%	3.3%	5.34	5.43	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	33	139	20	22	4	100%	4.7	14.4%	16.0%	-1.6%	2.9%	5.99	5.88	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	51	215	36	31	6	100%	5.1	16.5%	14.5%	2.0%	2.8%	5.64	5.49	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	61	258	46	35	7	100%	5.5	17.8%	13.6%	4.2%	2.8%	5.38	5.24	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	66	279	51	36	8	100%	5.5	18.5%	13.0%	5.5%	2.8%	5.20	5.10	-0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	69	291	55	37	8	100%	5.8	18.9%	12.7%	6.1%	2.8%	5.09	5.02	-0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	70	296	56	38	8	100%	5.8	19.1%	12.7%	6.3%	2.8%	5.04	5.00	-0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	71	300	57	38	8	100%	5.9	19.0%	12.8%	6.3%	2.8%	5.04	5.04	-0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	SEA	12	12	69	291	55	38	9	100%	5.8	18.9%	12.9%	6.0%	2.9%	5.09	5.12	-0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	SEA	11	11	66	279	52	37	9	100%	6.0	18.7%	13.2%	5.5%	3.1%	5.19	5.25	-0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	62	262	48	35	9	100%	6.2	18.3%	13.5%	4.9%	3.3%	5.34	5.43	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		108	108	618	2610	476	347	76	100%	5.7	18.3%	13.3%	4.9%	2.9%	5.25	4.83	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	154	112	25	100%	5.7	18.3%	13.3%	4.9%	2.9%	5.25	4.83	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		49	37	164	766	119	119	16	76%	3.4	15.5%	15.5%	-0.0%	2.1%	5.09	4.93	-2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	45	200	932	144	145	20	76%	3.4	15.5%	15.5%	-0.0%	2.1%	5.09	4.93	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Wilson (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.36	12.0%	17.9%	3.0%	—	5.53	16.3%	1.6%	210	-0.83	—	—	—
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	90
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	90
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	89
Darlin Alcántara R 2022 · 6.23 FIP	20	SP-	6.23	12.3%	22.2%	2.5%	.320	4.64	12.3%	2.5%	31	-1.59	3.61	118	88
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	87
Enrique Segura R 2023 · 6.44 FIP	18	SP	6.44	13.2%	21.3%	3.2%	.269	5.60	16.4%	2.4%	234	-0.84	4.12	313	86
Eliezer Pena R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	17	SP	6.54	10.5%	18.5%	3.6%	.265	4.47	18.1%	1.2%	114	-2.07	3.26	150	86
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	85
Hunter Stratton R 2017 · 5.73 FIP	20	SP	5.73	13.1%	20.3%	2.1%	.266	4.69	14.5%	0.1%	174	-1.04	3.02	527	85
Jorge Bautista R 2021 · 6.09 FIP	20	SP	6.09	13.1%	16.5%	3.6%	.297	4.86	16.8%	7.5%	231	-1.23	3.80	336	85
Edinxon Arias R 2017 · 7.03 FIP	19	SP	7.03	7.6%	19.9%	3.7%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	127	85
Mason McGwire R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	19	SP	6.54	13.2%	19.6%	3.8%	.374	4.91	18.1%	3.8%	120	-1.63	4.11	155	84
Ramon Santos R 2015 · 6.07 FIP	20	SP	6.07	7.2%	14.3%	3.2%	.352	4.52	13.3%	3.4%	191	-1.55	3.74	355	83
Edrick Agosto R 2017 · 6.67 FIP	20	SP-	6.67	11.4%	17.1%	4.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	113	83
Josh Swales R 2022 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	11.8%	14.6%	2.9%	.356	5.64	15.1%	1.4%	66	+0.13	5.51	129	82
Eudry Alcantara R 2023 · 6.03 FIP	18	SP	6.03	11.4%	19.2%	2.7%	.278	6.45	15.3%	-9.0%	71	+0.42	4.83	114	82
Irv Carter R 2023 · 7.11 FIP	20	SP-	7.11	11.4%	18.9%	4.7%	.266	5.51	18.8%	6.1%	150	-1.60	4.81	236	82
Moises Nova R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	20	SP	5.61	14.2%	16.8%	2.9%	.263	4.05	18.3%	4.2%	110	-1.56	3.42	219	82
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	82
Karsen Lindell R 2016 · 7.17 FIP	20	SP-	7.17	4.3%	20.7%	3.3%	.326	6.72	9.8%	-9.2%	54	-0.45	4.94	112	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	68	17.8%	13.6%	1.12	5.34
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58