Jose Bello
P
Salem RidgeYaks
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 164 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.7 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 32 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
K%22.1%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%12.1%
ROS IP32
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 9 | 8 | 33 | 141 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 89% | 3.7 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 0.8% | 3.55 | 3.08 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 9 | 8 | 33 | 141 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 89% | 3.7 | 27.7% | 7.1% | 20.6% | 0.7% | 3.55 | 2.04 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Giants | 8 | 7 | 28 | 108 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 88% | 3.5 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 18.1% | 1.0% | 2.93 | 2.34 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Giants | 8 | 7 | 28 | 108 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 88% | 3.5 | 35.2% | 4.6% | 30.6% | 0.9% | 2.93 | 1.37 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 5 | 56 | 231 | 61 | 24 | 0 | 25% | 2.8 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 2.75 | 3.13 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 5 | 56 | 231 | 61 | 24 | 0 | 25% | 2.8 | 26.4% | 10.4% | 16.0% | 0.0% | 2.75 | 2.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Salem RidgeYaks | 12 | 7 | 39 | 166 | 30 | 21 | 4 | 58% | 3.2 | 13.4% | 14.9% | -1.6% | 3.1% | 3.00 | 5.58 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 32 | 133 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.1% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.37 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 70 | 299 | 59 | 34 | 8 | — | — | 19.9% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 3.61 | 5.04 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 33 | 140 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 6.6 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 34 | 145 | 35 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 2.6% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 35 | 149 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 3.95 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 36 | 150 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 3.95 | 3.90 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 36 | 150 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 3.88 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 37 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.92 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.8 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 4.00 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 3 | 3 | 16 | 68 | 16 | 6 | 2 | 100% | 5.3 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 2.7% | 4.25 | 4.17 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 4 | 4 | 25 | 106 | 25 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 4.13 | 4.04 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 29 | 122 | 30 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 4.03 | 3.96 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 31 | 131 | 32 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 3.96 | 3.91 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.6 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 2.6% | 3.92 | 3.89 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 33 | 139 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.6 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 16.5% | 2.7% | 3.92 | 3.93 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 5 | 5 | 32 | 135 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 6.4 | 24.8% | 8.6% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 4.01 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 32 | 199 | 839 | 206 | 72 | 23 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 207 | 72 | 23 | 100% | 6.2 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 16.0% | 2.7% | 4.00 | 3.59 | +4.2 | ||
| Career | — | 49 | 27 | 155 | 646 | 117 | 72 | 7 | 55% | 3.2 | 18.1% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 1.1% | 3.01 | 3.62 | +3.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 35 | 200 | 832 | 151 | 93 | 9 | 55% | 3.2 | 18.1% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 1.1% | 3.01 | 3.62 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Bello (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.04 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 103 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.84 | 19.3% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .264 | 4.88 | 14.1% | 3.4% | 117 | +1.04 | 3.84 | 206 | 87 |
| Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.47 | 23.7% | 8.4% | 2.4% | .350 | 4.29 | 24.6% | 10.4% | 56 | +0.82 | 2.92 | 103 | 85 |
| Carson Rudd R 2027 · 3.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.43 | 25.4% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .351 | 5.24 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 193 | +1.81 | 3.43 | 242 | 84 |
| Eiberson Castellano R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.94 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.5% | .266 | 3.93 | 22.0% | 12.3% | 189 | -0.01 | 3.69 | 348 | 84 |
| Colin Fields R 2028 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 84 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2028 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 83 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 83 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 83 |
| Casey Legumina R 2029 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 82 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 81 |
| Inohan Paniagua R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.78 | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.3% | .298 | 4.27 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 297 | +0.49 | 3.78 | 473 | 81 |
| Jeronimo Castro R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.37 | 25.2% | 8.2% | 2.5% | .362 | 3.84 | 20.1% | 7.9% | 35 | +0.47 | 3.19 | 158 | 81 |
| Miguel Rodriguez R 2025 · 3.30 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.0% | .329 | 5.83 | 19.9% | 7.7% | 108 | +2.53 | 2.55 | 272 | 81 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2028 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 80 |
| Rico Garcia R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.21 | 18.8% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .316 | 3.82 | 19.8% | 11.5% | 296 | +0.61 | 3.21 | 566 | 80 |
| Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.17 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 2.6% | .366 | 3.31 | 22.3% | 15.2% | 61 | -0.86 | 3.25 | 266 | 80 |
| Wilmer Ortega R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .304 | 5.83 | 16.1% | 1.8% | 30 | +1.97 | 3.62 | 158 | 80 |
| Jonathan Petit R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.74 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 3.4% | .272 | 5.09 | 15.6% | 2.4% | 113 | +0.35 | 2.80 | 189 | 79 |
| Saul Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.69 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .320 | 3.27 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 70 | -0.42 | 2.98 | 110 | 79 |
| Michael Knorr R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 34 | 24.2% | 8.8% | 1.03 | 4.05 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Ryan Tepera ('22) | 7 | 48 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.12 | 3.53 |
| JT Chargois ('24) | 7 | 33 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 0.97 | 3.35 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Trevor May ('23) | 8 | 51 | 27.6% | 8.3% | 1.18 | 3.83 |
| Joakim Soria ('21) | 7 | 54 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 0.92 | 3.65 |