Jose Bello — OGILVIE

Jose Bello P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 164 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.4 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 31 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.67

FIP4.67

K%19.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.8%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 31 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$23M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-2	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	9	8	33	141	39	10	1	89%	3.7	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	0.9%	3.55	3.12	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	9	8	33	141	39	10	1	89%	3.7	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	0.9%	3.55	3.12	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	9	8	33	141	39	10	1	89%	3.7	27.7%	7.1%	20.6%	0.7%	3.55	2.04	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	8	7	28	108	38	5	1	88%	3.5	23.9%	5.8%	18.1%	1.1%	2.93	2.42	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	8	7	28	108	38	5	1	88%	3.5	23.9%	5.8%	18.1%	1.1%	2.93	2.42	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	8	7	28	108	38	5	1	88%	3.5	35.2%	4.6%	30.6%	0.9%	2.93	1.37	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	56	231	61	24	0	25%	2.8	18.4%	12.5%	5.9%	0.0%	2.75	3.13	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	56	231	61	24	0	25%	2.8	18.4%	12.5%	5.9%	0.0%	2.75	3.13	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	5	56	231	61	24	0	25%	2.8	26.4%	10.4%	16.0%	0.0%	2.75	2.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	20	12	74	325	52	38	8	60%	3.7	11.9%	14.3%	-2.4%	3.4%	4.64	5.78	—
YTD	21	A+ MLE	Greenville Drive	20	12	74	325	52	38	8	60%	3.7	11.9%	14.3%	-2.4%	3.4%	4.64	5.78	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	BOS	19	11	69	305	49	37	8	58%	3.6	16.1%	12.1%	3.9%	2.6%	4.54	4.72	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	BOS	1	1	4	20	3	1	0	100%	4.3	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	0.0%	6.23	2.47	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	76	320	67	32	9	100%	6.3	21.1%	9.9%	11.2%	2.7%	4.50	4.42	+0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	78	331	73	31	9	100%	6.5	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	2.7%	4.35	4.25	+0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	80	340	77	30	9	100%	6.2	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.6%	4.23	4.15	+0.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	82	344	79	30	9	100%	6.3	23.0%	8.7%	14.3%	2.6%	4.14	4.08	+0.8
2031	26	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	82	344	80	30	9	100%	6.3	23.2%	8.6%	14.5%	2.6%	4.09	4.06	+0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	BOS	13	13	80	339	79	30	9	100%	6.2	23.2%	8.7%	14.4%	2.7%	4.10	4.10	+0.8
2033	28	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	78	329	82	27	9	100%	6.5	25.0%	8.1%	17.0%	2.8%	3.99	3.92	+0.9
2034	29	MLB MLE	BOS	12	12	74	314	78	26	9	100%	6.2	24.8%	8.3%	16.5%	2.9%	4.02	4.05	+0.8
2035	30	MLB MLE	BOS	11	11	70	295	72	25	9	100%	6.4	24.4%	8.6%	15.9%	3.1%	4.14	4.22	+0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	BOS	10	10	65	275	66	25	9	100%	6.5	24.1%	8.9%	15.1%	3.4%	4.31	4.42	+0.4
2037	32	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	60	255	60	24	9	100%	6.7	23.6%	9.3%	14.3%	3.6%	4.51	4.65	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	37	156	33	15	4	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.9%	11.2%	2.6%	4.46	4.38	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	57	241	53	22	6	100%	6.3	22.0%	9.3%	12.7%	2.6%	4.31	4.21	+0.4
2029	24	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	67	283	64	25	7	100%	6.1	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.6%	4.19	4.11	+0.6
2030	25	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	72	304	70	26	8	100%	6.5	23.0%	8.7%	14.3%	2.6%	4.10	4.04	+0.7
2031	26	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	74	312	72	27	8	100%	6.2	23.2%	8.6%	14.5%	2.6%	4.05	4.02	+0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	BOS	12	12	74	312	72	27	8	100%	6.2	23.2%	8.7%	14.4%	2.6%	4.06	4.06	+0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	73	308	77	25	8	100%	6.6	25.0%	8.1%	17.0%	2.7%	3.95	3.88	+0.9
2034	29	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	71	300	74	25	9	100%	6.5	24.8%	8.3%	16.5%	2.9%	3.98	4.01	+0.7
2035	30	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	66	279	68	24	9	100%	6.6	24.4%	8.6%	15.9%	3.1%	4.10	4.18	+0.5
2036	31	MLB CTX	BOS	10	10	62	262	63	23	9	100%	6.2	24.1%	8.9%	15.1%	3.3%	4.26	4.37	+0.3
2037	32	MLB CTX	BOS	9	9	57	241	57	22	8	100%	6.3	23.6%	9.3%	14.3%	3.5%	4.46	4.60	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		112	112	711	3003	705	264	84	100%	6.3	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.8%	4.15	3.77	+9.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	198	74	24	100%	6.4	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.8%	4.15	3.77	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		57	32	190	805	133	94	14	56%	3.3	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	1.7%	3.65	4.10	+6.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	34	200	847	141	99	14	56%	3.3	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	1.7%	3.65	4.10	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Bello (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	19.6%	10.8%	2.7%	—	4.27	21.9%	12.6%	235	-0.40	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	87
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	87
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	86
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	85
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	85
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	85
Henry Valencio R 2019 · 4.15 FIP	20	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.6%	2.0%	.293	5.11	11.9%	-11.9%	14	+0.96	3.48	136	85
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	84
Jonathan Petit R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.3%	9.1%	3.2%	.272	5.11	15.6%	2.4%	113	+0.47	2.70	189	84
Michael Cederoth R 2015 · 4.10 FIP	22	SP-	4.10	16.8%	13.0%	1.4%	.292	4.95	21.6%	2.4%	83	+0.85	4.10	118	83
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	83
Robert Colina R 2022 · 4.09 FIP	21	SP-	4.09	20.5%	10.8%	2.5%	.366	3.37	22.3%	15.2%	61	-0.72	3.25	266	82
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	82
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	82
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	82
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	82
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	82
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	82
Eiberson Castellano R 2022 · 3.94 FIP	21	SW	3.94	21.8%	10.3%	2.5%	.266	3.93	22.0%	12.3%	189	-0.01	3.67	383	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	71	23.2%	8.9%	1.10	4.23
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43