Jose Bello

P Salem RidgeYaks

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 164 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.5 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#907ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	19	ROKSF	8	7	28	2.93	1.37	35.2%	4.6%	—	K 23.9% · BB 5.8% · FIP 2.42
2025	20	MIX2 levels	20	5	56	2.75	2.20	26.4%	10.4%	—	K 18.4% · BB 12.5% · FIP 3.13
2026	21	MIX2 levels	20	12	74	4.64	4.65	16.0%	11.7%	—	K 11.9% · BB 14.3% · FIP 5.78
2027PROJ	22	MLBBOS	—	—	0	5.62	5.62	14.1%	13.6%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBBOS	4	4	26	5.26	5.14	16.8%	12.1%	0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBBOS	6	6	37	5.00	4.87	18.5%	11.2%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.8M2033Arb-2$1M2034Arb-3$1.0M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.4, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%

CompsDavid Rodriguez (age 22) · Seth McClung (age 22) · Ben Ethridge (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.62

FIP5.62

K%14.1%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%0.5%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$8M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-3	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	9	8	33	141	39	10	1	89%	3.7	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	0.9%	3.55	3.12	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	9	8	33	141	39	10	1	89%	3.7	27.7%	7.1%	20.6%	0.7%	3.55	2.04	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	8	7	28	108	38	5	1	88%	3.5	23.9%	5.8%	18.1%	1.1%	2.93	2.42	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	8	7	28	108	38	5	1	88%	3.5	23.9%	5.8%	18.1%	1.1%	2.93	2.42	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	8	7	28	108	38	5	1	88%	3.5	35.2%	4.6%	30.6%	0.9%	2.93	1.37	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	56	231	61	24	0	25%	2.8	18.4%	12.5%	5.9%	0.0%	2.75	3.13	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	5	56	231	61	24	0	25%	2.8	18.4%	12.5%	5.9%	0.0%	2.75	3.13	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	5	56	231	61	24	0	25%	2.8	26.4%	10.4%	16.0%	0.0%	2.75	2.20	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	74	325	52	38	8	60%	3.7	11.9%	14.3%	-2.4%	3.4%	4.64	5.78	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	12	74	325	52	38	8	60%	3.7	11.9%	14.3%	-2.4%	3.4%	4.64	5.78	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	12	74	325	52	38	8	60%	3.7	16.0%	11.7%	4.3%	2.5%	4.64	4.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	14.1%	13.6%	0.5%	2.9%	5.62	5.62	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	52	222	37	27	6	100%	5.8	16.8%	12.1%	4.7%	2.9%	5.30	5.18	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	52	222	41	25	6	100%	5.8	18.5%	11.2%	7.3%	2.9%	5.04	4.91	+0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	47	200	39	21	6	100%	5.9	19.6%	10.6%	8.9%	2.9%	4.85	4.75	+0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	48	201	40	21	6	100%	5.9	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	2.9%	4.75	4.69	+0.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	46	195	39	21	6	100%	5.8	20.1%	10.6%	9.4%	2.9%	4.74	4.73	+0.4
2033	28	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	44	185	37	20	6	100%	6.3	20.0%	10.8%	9.2%	3.0%	4.79	4.82	+0.3
2034	29	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	41	172	34	19	5	100%	5.8	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.2%	4.88	4.95	+0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	BOS	6	6	37	156	30	18	5	100%	6.2	19.4%	11.3%	8.1%	3.4%	5.03	5.12	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	BOS	4	4	26	110	18	13	3	100%	6.5	16.8%	12.1%	4.7%	2.8%	5.26	5.14	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	37	156	29	17	4	100%	6.2	18.5%	11.2%	7.3%	2.8%	5.00	4.87	+0.2
2030	25	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	38	160	31	17	4	100%	6.3	19.6%	10.6%	8.9%	2.8%	4.81	4.71	+0.3
2031	26	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	42	177	36	19	5	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.6%	9.5%	2.8%	4.71	4.65	+0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	42	177	36	19	5	100%	6.0	20.1%	10.6%	9.4%	2.8%	4.70	4.69	+0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	BOS	7	7	40	169	34	18	5	100%	5.7	20.0%	10.8%	9.2%	2.9%	4.75	4.78	+0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	38	160	32	18	5	100%	6.3	19.7%	11.0%	8.7%	3.1%	4.84	4.91	+0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	BOS	6	6	35	148	29	17	5	100%	5.8	19.4%	11.3%	8.1%	3.3%	4.98	5.07	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	50	297	1255	243	138	37	100%	5.9	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	2.9%	4.86	4.45	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	164	93	25	100%	6.0	19.4%	11.0%	8.4%	2.9%	4.86	4.45	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		57	32	190	805	133	94	14	56%	3.3	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	1.7%	3.65	4.10	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	34	200	847	141	99	14	56%	3.3	16.6%	11.7%	4.9%	1.7%	3.65	4.10	+1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ASalem RidgeYaks · 69 IPFIP 4.72 → 5.78 (+1.06)K% 16.1% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	16.07%	—	×0.740	11.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.13%	—	×1.180	14.31%
HR / BF /BF	2.62%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.41%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.72 → 5.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Greenville Drive · 4 IPFIP 2.47 → 2.85 (+0.39)K% 15.0% → 11.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.00%	—	×0.770	11.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.00%	—	×1.150	5.75%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.47 → 2.85, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Red Sox · 32 IPFIP 1.01 → 2.20 (+1.20)K% 35.8% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.77%	—	×0.680	24.33%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.32%	—	×1.250	9.15%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.815	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 63).

Result: FIP 1.01 → 2.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ASalem Red Sox · 23 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.19 (+0.66)K% 15.7% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.74%	—	×0.740	11.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.89%	—	×1.180	16.39%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.891	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.19, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKACL Giants · 28 IPFIP 1.22 → 2.42 (+1.19)K% 35.2% → 23.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.19%	—	×0.680	23.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.63%	—	×1.250	5.79%
HR / BF /BF	0.93%	÷1.178	×1.400	1.10%

Result: FIP 1.22 → 2.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKDSL Giants Black · 33 IPFIP 2.05 → 3.12 (+1.07)K% 27.7% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.66%	—	×0.680	18.81%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.09%	—	×1.250	8.87%
HR / BF /BF	0.71%	÷1.118	×1.400	0.89%

Result: FIP 2.05 → 3.12, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Bello (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.95	18.3%	6.9%	152	-0.67	—	—	—
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	88
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	85
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	85
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	85
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	84
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	84
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	83
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	83
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	83
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	83
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	82
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	82
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	82
Xavier Altamirano R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	11.3%	11.0%	2.1%	.333	4.51	14.7%	7.7%	388	-0.21	3.91	451	82
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	82
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	82
Gavin Floyd R 2005 · 5.53 FIP	22	SP-	5.53	13.4%	11.0%	3.9%	.275	5.01	15.7%	8.1%	331	-0.52	2.95	1,250	82
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	81
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	81
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	47	18.6%	11.4%	1.15	5.02
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*