Jose Bello
P
Salem RidgeYaks
+0.3
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 164 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2029
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.1%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%12.1%
IP45
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 9 | 8 | 33 | 141 | 39 | 10 | 1 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 0.8% | 3.55 | 3.09 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Giants | 8 | 7 | 28 | 108 | 38 | 5 | 1 | 23.9% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 2.93 | 2.40 | +0.8 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Salem Red Sox | 20 | 5 | 56 | 231 | 61 | 24 | 0 | 18.4% | 12.5% | 0.0% | 2.75 | 3.13 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Salem RidgeYaks | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 190 | 42 | 19 | 5 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 2.7% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | BOS | — | — | 47 | 198 | 42 | 20 | 5 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 4.17 | 4.17 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 47 | — | 47 | 199 | 46 | 18 | 5 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.16 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 49 | 18 | 5 | 23.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 50 | — | 50 | 212 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 24.4% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.02 | 3.95 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 53 | 18 | 6 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 3.95 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 54 | 18 | 6 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 53 | 18 | 6 | 25.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 3.90 | 3.89 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 50 | — | 50 | 209 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 24.9% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.91 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 48 | — | 48 | 205 | 51 | 17 | 6 | 24.8% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 49 | 17 | 6 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 3.99 | 4.02 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 47 | 17 | 5 | 24.4% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.05 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 44 | — | 44 | 184 | 44 | 16 | 5 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.18 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | BOS | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | BOS | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 39 | 15 | 5 | 23.4% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.39 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 21 | 118 | 488 | 95 | 49 | 2 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 0.5% | 2.97 | 2.98 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 35 | 200 | 825 | 161 | 83 | 3 | 19.4% | 10.0% | 0.5% | 2.97 | 2.98 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Bello (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 2.7% | — | 4.04 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 146 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 93 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 92 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 92 |
| Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 90 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 90 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 89 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 89 |
| Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.79 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .294 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 111 | +0.23 | 2.94 | 206 | 89 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 89 |
| Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 88 |
| Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 88 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 88 |
| Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 88 |
| Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 88 |
| Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 88 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 87 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2028 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 87 |
| Kevin Coulter R 2027 · 3.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.27 | 21.0% | 7.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.54 | 16.1% | 7.6% | 92 | +1.27 | 3.27 | 128 | 87 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 87 |
| Kyle Marman R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.97 | 22.2% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .270 | 5.16 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 71 | +1.19 | 3.97 | 117 | 87 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.9M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $5M | $14M | +$8M | ||