Juan Ortega

C Delmarva Shorebirds
Age 21 R/R 5'8" / 177 lbs A HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
OGV OFP35OGV rank#538ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKDSL Orioles O…131.237/.450/.36621261—.152/.349/.222
202519ROKBAL136.264/.400/.43641162—.186/.289/.297
202620A/ROKBAL243.232/.350/.34831463—.210/.308/.317
2027PROJMLE21MLBBAL353.211/.288/.31358720.2
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBBAL65.218/.295/.33312760.1
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBBAL136.222/.299/.34333800.2
Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Speed88
Whiff%72
K%62
Z-Con%50
wRC+39
BB%38
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 8.7, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 83%
CompsJuan Mora (age 21) · Jeter Downs (age 21) · Jared Serna (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 142 proj PA
wRC+†72
AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .285 / .310
PA142
HR2
K%25
BB%7
ISO103
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -4.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-5BATRUN: +0.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +2.5 runs (Positional adjustment)+3POSREP: +3.1 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.20+0.2WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.40.50.50.50.50.30.20.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 42
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT37
scouting grade only
POWER42
scouting grade only
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED61
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.8M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.8M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.5$1M+$0.7M
2035Arb-1$2M+0.3$0.7M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-2$2M+0.2$0.4M+$0.0M (cut)
2037Arb-3$0.6M———
Totals $3M $5M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202317 ROKDSL Orioles Orange — 4941 11220 5132 11 268375415790 146393 2710 349 34 — — — — — —
202418 ROKDSL Orioles Orange — 13193 22602 182418 124 237450366815 129294 1814 384 61 — — — — — —
202519 ROKFCL Orioles — 136110 29324 21304 114 264400436836 173325 2215 376 62 — — — — — —
202620 ADelmarva Shorebirds — 208169 36442 224610 137 213338320658 107276 2211 298 57 — — — — — —
202620 ROKFCL Orioles — 3529 10201 252 11 345424517941 172375 146 396 98 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202317 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 4943 7110 3172 11 163250233483 70253 356 219 34 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 13199 15401 123018 124 152349222571 71183 239 258 61 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 136118 22213 13444 114 186289297585 110253 3210 260 62 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEDelmarva Shorebirds — 208175 34342 166310 137 194299291590 97263 308 252 57 — — — — — —
202620 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 3530 9201 172 11 300364467830 167295 203 313 98 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 4943 7110 3172 11 163250233483 70269 356 219 34 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Orioles Orange — 4941 11220 5132 11 268375415790 146393 2710 349 34 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 13199 15401 123018 124 152349222571 71203 239 258 61 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWDSL Orioles Orange — 13193 22602 182418 124 237450366815 129294 1814 384 61 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 136118 22213 13444 114 186289297585 110264 3210 260 62 — — — — — —
202519 ROK RAWFCL Orioles — 136110 29324 21304 114 264400436836 173325 2215 376 62 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 243205 42542 177012 148 205303298601 93294 297 261 63 — — — — — —
202620 A RAW2 teams — 243198 46643 245112 148 232350348699 116293 2110 312 63 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 4944 7110 3172 11 159250227477 68253 356 219 34 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 131100 15401 123018 124 150349220569 70183 239 258 61 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 136118 22213 13444 114 186289297585 110253 3210 260 62 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 243212 42542 177012 148 198303288591 90268 297 261 63 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEDSL Orioles Orange — 131100 15401 123018 124 150349220569 70183 239 258 61 — — — — — —
202519 ROK MLEFCL Orioles — 136118 22213 13444 114 186289297585 110253 3210 260 62 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 243212 42542 177012 148 198303288591 90268 297 261 63 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEBAL 0% 353316 671235 26888 83 211288313601 103273 257 274 72 -12 +0 +0 +6 +8 0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEBAL 34% 189169 35613 14474 52 215292326619 111275 257 281 76 -5 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.2
202923 MLB MLEBAL 48% 280250 551025 22686 72 218296336632 117276 248 286 80 -7 +1 +0 +5 +6 0.5
203024 MLB MLEBAL 53% 356318 701237 28867 93 221298343641 122278 248 290 82 -7 +1 +0 +6 +8 0.7
203125 MLB MLEBAL 55% 396354 791438 31958 103 223300347647 124279 248 292 84 -8 +1 +0 +7 +9 0.9
203226 MLB MLEBAL 56% 419375 841539 331008 104 224301350650 126279 248 293 85 -8 +0 +0 +7 +9 1.0
203327 MLB MLEBAL 55% 428383 851539 341038 104 222300347647 125278 248 292 84 -8 +0 +0 +8 +9 0.9
203428 MLB MLEBAL 59% 427382 851539 341048 104 221298342640 122277 248 289 82 -9 +0 -1 +8 +9 0.8
203529 MLB MLEBAL 61% 418374 821538 331038 94 218295336631 118276 258 286 79 -10 +0 -1 +7 +9 0.5
203630 MLB MLEBAL 62% 407365 791437 321017 84 215291328619 113274 258 281 76 -12 +0 -2 +7 +9 0.3
203731 MLB MLEBAL 63% 375336 701226 29957 64 211286318604 107271 258 275 72 -12 -0 -3 +7 +8 -0.1
202822 MLB CTXBAL 34% 6559 12201 5161 21 218295333629 115279 258 285 76 -2 +0 +0 +1 +1 0.1
202923 MLB CTXBAL 48% 136122 28513 10333 31 222299343642 121280 247 290 80 -3 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.2
203024 MLB CTXBAL 53% 188167 38714 15454 52 225302350652 126282 248 294 82 -4 +0 +0 +3 +4 0.4
203125 MLB CTXBAL 55% 217194 45825 17524 52 226303355658 129283 248 297 84 -4 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.5
203226 MLB CTXBAL 56% 233208 48925 18565 62 227304358662 130283 248 298 85 -4 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.5
203327 MLB CTXBAL 55% 235209 48925 19575 62 226303355658 129283 248 296 84 -5 +0 +0 +4 +5 0.5
203428 MLB CTXBAL 59% 251224 50925 20615 62 224301350651 126281 248 294 82 -5 +0 -0 +4 +5 0.5
203529 MLB CTXBAL 61% 254227 51925 20625 52 222298343641 122280 248 290 79 -6 +0 -1 +5 +6 0.3
203630 MLB CTXBAL 62% 253226 50925 20635 52 218294335629 117278 258 285 76 -7 +0 -1 +5 +5 0.2
203731 MLB CTXBAL 63% 236212 45814 18604 43 214289325614 111275 258 279 72 -8 -0 -2 +4 +5 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 20681848 415751542 16250541 4719 225301350651 125285 248 291 77 -49 +2 -4 +37 +45 3.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650581 13124513 5115913 156 225303351654 126286 248 291 77 -15 +1 -1 +12 +14 1.0
Career— MLE — 43963898 8371453379 3461099110 12552 215297330627 115276 258 283 77 -91 +3 -7 +69 +83 5.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650576 12421512 5116216 188 215297332629 116276 258 283 77 -15 +1 -1 +12 +14 1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 208 PAwOBA .294 → .252 (−42)K% 22.1% → 30.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.12%÷1.000×1.360——30.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.58%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0307.52%
HBP% /PA4.81%—×0.780—×1.0303.86%
Singles /BIP21.14%÷1.000×0.920×1.019×1.03020.40%
Doubles /BIP3.25%÷1.000×0.830×1.019×1.0302.83%
Triples /BIP3.25%÷1.000×0.910×1.019×1.0303.10%
Home runs /BIP1.63%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0301.34%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .294 → .252; ISO .107 → .094; BABIP .276 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 35 PAwOBA .396 → .313 (−83)K% 14.3% → 20.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.29%÷1.000×1.440——20.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.71%÷1.000×0.620—×0.9953.53%
HBP% /PA5.71%—×0.720—×0.9954.09%
Singles /BIP29.17%÷1.000×0.820—×0.99523.80%
Doubles /BIP8.33%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9955.97%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP4.17%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9953.23%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .396 → .313; ISO .172 → .136; BABIP .375 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 136 PAwOBA .369 → .260 (−110)K% 22.1% → 32.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.06%÷0.980×1.440——32.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.44%÷1.020×0.620—×1.0089.45%
HBP% /PA2.94%—×0.720—×1.0082.13%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.997×0.820×0.990×1.00820.51%
Doubles /BIP3.75%÷1.033×0.720×0.990×1.0082.61%
Triples /BIP2.50%÷1.150×0.720×0.990×1.0081.56%
Home runs /BIP5.00%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0083.93%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .369 → .260; ISO .173 → .121; BABIP .325 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 131 PAwOBA .379 → .258 (−121)K% 18.3% → 22.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.32%÷0.981×1.220——22.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.74%÷1.041×0.700—×1.0089.31%
HBP% /PA13.74%—×0.700—×1.0089.69%
Singles /BIP20.29%÷1.082×0.680×0.986×1.00812.67%
Doubles /BIP8.70%÷0.924×0.600×0.986×1.0085.61%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.600×0.986×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP2.90%÷0.992×0.470—×1.0081.38%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 116, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .379 → .258; ISO .129 → .080; BABIP .294 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 49 PAwOBA .340 → .219 (−122)K% 26.5% → 34.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.53%÷0.941×1.220——34.39%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.20%÷1.049×0.700—×1.0226.96%
HBP% /PA4.08%—×0.700—×1.0222.92%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷1.051×0.680—×1.02216.54%
Doubles /BIP7.14%÷0.991×0.600—×1.0224.42%
Triples /BIP7.14%÷1.018×0.600—×1.0224.31%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.847×0.470—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 104, K 88, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .340 → .219; ISO .146 → .087; BABIP .393 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).