Juan Ortega — OGILVIE

Juan OrtegaC Delmarva Shorebirds

Age 20 R/R 5'8" / 177 lbs A HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION185 act + 123 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .278 / .293

PA123

HR2

K%28

BB%7

BABIP256

ISO101

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 42

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT37

scouting grade only

POWER42

scouting grade only

EYE53

scouting grade only

SPEED63

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$8M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.5	$8M	+$7M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.5	$7M	+$7M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
2036	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.1M
Totals		$14M		$35M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	49	43	6	1	1	0	3	21	2	1	1	140	229	209	438	70	273	43	6	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	49	41	11	2	2	0	5	13	2	1	1	268	375	415	790	146	393	27	10	349	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	131	101	17	5	0	2	10	36	18	12	4	168	349	277	626	109	234	27	8	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	131	93	22	6	0	2	18	24	18	12	4	237	450	366	815	129	294	18	14	384	152	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	136	118	21	2	1	3	13	45	4	11	4	178	281	288	570	110	254	33	10	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	136	110	29	3	2	4	21	30	4	11	4	264	400	436	836	173	325	22	15	376	146	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	BAL	—	185	157	27	2	3	2	11	58	10	12	6	172	270	261	531	89	250	31	6	234	37	-13	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.5
YTD	20	A	BAL	—	185	151	31	3	4	2	17	41	10	12	6	205	326	318	644	113	261	22	9	290	80	-4	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.4
ROS	20	A	BAL	0%	123	109	21	3	1	2	9	34	4	4	2	192	278	293	571	101	265	28	7	267	62	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
ROS	20	MLB	BAL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		269	—	—	246	47	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	BAL	—	185	158	27	2	3	2	11	58	10	12	6	171	270	259	529	89	248	31	6	234	37	-13	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.5
TOT	20	A	BAL	—	308	266	48	5	4	4	20	92	14	16	8	180	273	274	547	94	252	30	6	247	47	-18	+0	+0	+6	+9	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	BAL	43%	311	277	58	10	3	6	22	83	9	8	3	209	289	332	621	123	270	27	7	277	70	-11	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.4
2028	22	MLB	BAL	61%	409	365	77	13	4	8	30	107	11	11	4	211	291	334	625	123	273	26	7	284	75	-11	+1	+0	+7	+12	0.8
2029	23	MLB	BAL	68%	469	419	90	15	4	10	35	120	12	12	5	215	294	341	635	126	275	26	7	288	79	-11	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.1
2030	24	MLB	BAL	70%	507	451	98	17	4	11	38	129	13	13	5	217	297	346	643	129	276	25	7	291	81	-11	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.3
2031	25	MLB	BAL	70%	520	461	102	17	5	12	40	132	14	14	5	221	303	358	661	137	276	25	8	292	82	-11	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.4
2032	26	MLB	BAL	71%	520	461	102	17	5	12	40	132	14	14	5	221	303	358	661	137	276	25	8	293	82	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2033	27	MLB	BAL	69%	520	461	100	17	4	12	40	132	14	14	5	217	299	349	648	132	276	25	8	293	82	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2034	28	MLB	BAL	69%	520	460	99	17	4	11	41	133	14	13	5	215	299	341	640	126	275	26	8	292	81	-11	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2035	29	MLB	BAL	67%	520	460	99	17	4	11	41	134	14	13	5	215	299	341	640	126	274	26	8	290	80	-12	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.2
2036	30	MLB	BAL	66%	514	455	97	16	4	11	41	134	13	12	5	213	297	338	635	125	273	26	8	287	78	-13	+0	-2	+9	+15	0.9
2037	31	MLB	BAL	71%	485	432	90	15	4	10	38	128	12	11	4	208	290	331	621	123	270	26	8	283	75	-14	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.6
2027	21	MLB	BAL	43%	134	119	24	4	1	2	10	36	4	4	1	202	286	303	588	101	274	27	7	259	57	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2028	22	MLB	BAL	61%	249	222	47	8	2	5	18	65	7	7	2	212	291	333	625	122	277	26	7	268	63	-10	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2029	23	MLB	BAL	68%	319	284	63	11	3	7	24	82	8	8	3	222	301	356	656	134	279	26	8	273	67	-12	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.3
2030	24	MLB	BAL	70%	353	314	69	12	3	8	27	90	9	9	4	220	300	354	654	134	280	25	8	276	70	-12	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.4
2031	25	MLB	BAL	70%	365	324	71	12	3	8	28	93	10	10	4	219	301	349	650	130	280	25	8	277	70	-12	+0	+0	+7	+10	0.5
2032	26	MLB	BAL	71%	367	326	72	12	3	9	28	93	10	10	4	221	302	359	661	138	280	25	8	277	71	-12	+0	+0	+7	+10	0.5
2033	27	MLB	BAL	69%	361	321	70	12	3	8	28	92	9	10	4	218	299	349	648	131	280	25	8	278	71	-12	+0	+0	+6	+10	0.5
2034	28	MLB	BAL	69%	357	317	70	12	3	8	28	91	9	9	3	221	302	353	656	132	279	25	8	277	70	-12	+1	-0	+6	+10	0.5
2035	29	MLB	BAL	67%	348	309	67	11	3	8	27	90	9	9	3	217	299	350	648	133	278	26	8	275	68	-12	+1	-1	+6	+10	0.3
2036	30	MLB	BAL	66%	338	299	65	11	3	7	27	88	9	8	3	217	301	344	646	127	277	26	8	272	66	-13	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.2
2037	31	MLB	BAL	71%	344	305	65	11	3	7	27	91	9	8	3	213	296	338	634	125	274	26	8	268	63	-14	+0	-2	+6	+10	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3535	3141	683	116	30	77	272	911	93	92	34	217	299	347	646	130	279	26	8	274	68	-129	+5	-5	+63	+100	3.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	126	21	6	14	50	168	17	17	6	218	300	348	647	130	280	26	8	274	68	-24	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	5734	5073	1077	182	48	121	441	1500	168	163	62	212	297	339	635	126	274	26	8	286	77	-147	+8	-7	+102	+162	12.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	122	21	5	14	50	170	19	18	7	212	297	339	636	127	273	26	8	286	77	-17	+1	-1	+12	+18	1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	49	41	11	2	2	0	5	13	2	1	1	268	375	415	790	146	393	27	10	349	125	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	18	ROK	DSL Orioles Orange	—	131	93	22	6	0	2	18	24	18	12	4	237	450	366	815	129	294	18	14	384	152	+8	+1	—	—	+4	1.2
2025	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	136	110	29	3	2	4	21	30	4	11	4	264	400	436	836	173	325	22	15	376	146	+7	+1	—	—	+4	1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
	/162	664	17	9	246	292	387	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Derek Norrislast yr '17 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,195 PA	6	2,195	63	26	230	304	380	+39	+50	13.7	13.7
	/162	664	19	8	230	304	380	+11.9	+15.1	4.1	pk7: 14
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,713	78	95	216	294	343	+66	+32	8.7	7.6
	/162	664	14	17	216	294	343	+11.9	+5.7	1.6	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Juan Ortega (OGILVIE)	20	32→37	37→42	58→63	53	180/273/274	94	252	4	16	30%	6%	47	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/292/345	117	310	10	10	28%	6%	79	+0.3	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	57	-1.2	191/237/342	151	271	18	8	36%	5%	55	-1.4	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	45→42	42→50	56→50	40	218/268/331	113	302	8	15	30%	6%	64	-0.8	215/273/337	122	287	11	12	27%	6%	68	-0.5	225/274/377	152	279	18	13	26%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Jose Ramos 2023 · A	20	41	41→40	57→60	48	201/274/306	105	261	8	20	25%	8%	61	-1.0	183/262/263	80	276	4	22	32%	8%	45	-2.1	166/252/237	72	256	4	27	33%	9%	33	-1.3
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	42	40→45	54→60	47	195/295/296	102	308	7	8	35%	10%	69	-0.4	201/299/281	80	274	6	17	26%	10%	66	-0.6	179/307/226	46	224	4	30	20%	12%	56	-0.5
✕Jeferson Quero 2023 · A	20	44→42	44→50	49→45	41	219/269/335	116	284	12	9	27%	6%	66	-0.6	226/283/364	138	283	16	7	25%	7%	79	+0.3	225/289/370	145	269	18	4	23%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Jared Serna 2022 · A	20	42→49	39→45	56→50	54	198/298/287	89	252	5	22	22%	10%	67	-0.5	215/282/333	118	275	11	17	25%	7%	72	-0.2	214/272/339	125	267	13	15	24%	6%	65	-0.5
✕Adan Velazquez 2010 · A	20	44→52	43→45	54→50	43	215/277/331	116	278	9	11	25%	6%	69	-0.4	210/261/303	93	295	7	10	30%	5%	54	-1.4	248/287/342	94	301	8	6	20%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Christian Lopes 2013 · A	20	42→50	42→45	53→50	42	207/256/324	117	265	8	8	25%	5%	57	-1.2	204/258/280	76	260	4	4	22%	6%	46	-2.0	218/301/343	126	271	13	13	23%	9%	80	+0.2
✕Luke Adams 2023 · A	19	50→35	40→45	55	45	230/305/328	98	330	7	18	30%	8%	80	+0.4	188/317/307	119	267	12	20	31%	11%	83	+0.6	183/337/342	159	234	19	21	28%	12%	99	+0.8
✕Evan Van Hoosier 2015 · A	21	48→49	43→50	56→50	45	232/286/358	126	292	9	10	23%	6%	79	+0.3	228/273/336	108	306	6	9	26%	5%	66	-0.6	227/270/341	114	317	5	10	29%	4%	64	-0.3
✕Glenn Santiago 2021 · A	20	43	37→40	55→45	46	200/274/277	78	262	3	13	23%	7%	54	-1.4	206/269/298	92	281	7	9	27%	7%	56	-1.3	184/247/261	77	274	7	8	33%	7%	35	-1.1
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	41→40	42→50	52→55	42	203/265/309	106	263	10	18	26%	6%	58	-1.2	207/272/357	150	272	17	18	30%	7%	74	-0.1	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Adrian Abreu 2011 · A	20	43	37→40	52→55	44	204/258/281	77	261	3	10	22%	6%	46	-2.0	205/283/290	85	253	7	15	20%	9%	61	-1.0	194/284/274	80	231	8	20	19%	10%	56	-0.4
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→41	40→45	57→60	42	218/276/313	95	301	7	17	29%	7%	63	-0.9	213/275/311	98	289	7	22	27%	7%	63	-0.9	205/269/314	109	262	10	34	25%	7%	58	-0.7
✕Jason Taylor 2009 · A	21	42→39	46→45	53→55	51	210/295/335	126	263	13	20	25%	10%	78	+0.2	210/269/323	113	265	11	17	24%	7%	63	-0.8	202/247/302	100	249	8	18	22%	5%	46	-0.6
✕Jorge Vega-Rosado 2012 · A	20	47	41→45	55	41	224/275/324	100	304	8	19	28%	6%	65	-0.7	205/261/286	81	311	6	14	34%	6%	50	-1.8	174/233/231	57	275	4	15	36%	6%	21	-1.4
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→48	47→55	59→55	38	216/258/360	144	272	14	15	26%	4%	68	-0.5	239/275/399	160	304	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	40→50	57→55	42	201/257/293	92	281	6	22	30%	7%	50	-1.8	232/286/367	135	290	12	21	23%	7%	82	+0.5	254/312/374	120	299	11	11	18%	7%	92	+1.0