Juan Ortega
C Delmarva Shorebirds| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL Orioles O… | 131 | .237/.450/.366 | 2 | 12 | 61 | — | .152/.349/.222 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKBAL | 136 | .264/.400/.436 | 4 | 11 | 62 | — | .186/.289/.297 |
| 2026 | 20 | A/ROKBAL | 243 | .232/.350/.348 | 3 | 14 | 63 | — | .210/.308/.317 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBBAL | 353 | .211/.288/.313 | 5 | 8 | 72 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBBAL | 65 | .218/.295/.333 | 1 | 2 | 76 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBBAL | 136 | .222/.299/.343 | 3 | 3 | 80 | 0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 42
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 49 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 268 | 375 | 415 | 790 | 146 | 393 | 27 | 10 | 349 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 131 | 93 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 24 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 237 | 450 | 366 | 815 | 129 | 294 | 18 | 14 | 384 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 136 | 110 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 30 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 264 | 400 | 436 | 836 | 173 | 325 | 22 | 15 | 376 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 208 | 169 | 36 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 22 | 46 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 213 | 338 | 320 | 658 | 107 | 276 | 22 | 11 | 298 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 35 | 29 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 345 | 424 | 517 | 941 | 172 | 375 | 14 | 6 | 396 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 49 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 250 | 233 | 483 | 70 | 253 | 35 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 131 | 99 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 152 | 349 | 222 | 571 | 71 | 183 | 23 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 136 | 118 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 44 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 186 | 289 | 297 | 585 | 110 | 253 | 32 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 208 | 175 | 34 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 63 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 194 | 299 | 291 | 590 | 97 | 263 | 30 | 8 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 35 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 300 | 364 | 467 | 830 | 167 | 295 | 20 | 3 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 49 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 163 | 250 | 233 | 483 | 70 | 269 | 35 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 49 | 41 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 268 | 375 | 415 | 790 | 146 | 393 | 27 | 10 | 349 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 131 | 99 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 152 | 349 | 222 | 571 | 71 | 203 | 23 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 131 | 93 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 24 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 237 | 450 | 366 | 815 | 129 | 294 | 18 | 14 | 384 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 136 | 118 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 44 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 186 | 289 | 297 | 585 | 110 | 264 | 32 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Orioles | — | 136 | 110 | 29 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 30 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 264 | 400 | 436 | 836 | 173 | 325 | 22 | 15 | 376 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 205 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 70 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 205 | 303 | 298 | 601 | 93 | 294 | 29 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 243 | 198 | 46 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 51 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 232 | 350 | 348 | 699 | 116 | 293 | 21 | 10 | 312 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 49 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 159 | 250 | 227 | 477 | 68 | 253 | 35 | 6 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 131 | 100 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 150 | 349 | 220 | 569 | 70 | 183 | 23 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 136 | 118 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 44 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 186 | 289 | 297 | 585 | 110 | 253 | 32 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 212 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 70 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 198 | 303 | 288 | 591 | 90 | 268 | 29 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 131 | 100 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 150 | 349 | 220 | 569 | 70 | 183 | 23 | 9 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 136 | 118 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 44 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 186 | 289 | 297 | 585 | 110 | 253 | 32 | 10 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 243 | 212 | 42 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 70 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 198 | 303 | 288 | 591 | 90 | 268 | 29 | 7 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 353 | 316 | 67 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 88 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 211 | 288 | 313 | 601 | 103 | 273 | 25 | 7 | 274 | 72 | -12 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 34% | 189 | 169 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 215 | 292 | 326 | 619 | 111 | 275 | 25 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 48% | 280 | 250 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 68 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 218 | 296 | 336 | 632 | 117 | 276 | 24 | 8 | 286 | 80 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 356 | 318 | 70 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 86 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 221 | 298 | 343 | 641 | 122 | 278 | 24 | 8 | 290 | 82 | -7 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 396 | 354 | 79 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 95 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 223 | 300 | 347 | 647 | 124 | 279 | 24 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 56% | 419 | 375 | 84 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 100 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 224 | 301 | 350 | 650 | 126 | 279 | 24 | 8 | 293 | 85 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 428 | 383 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 103 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 222 | 300 | 347 | 647 | 125 | 278 | 24 | 8 | 292 | 84 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +8 | +9 | 0.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 59% | 427 | 382 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 104 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 221 | 298 | 342 | 640 | 122 | 277 | 24 | 8 | 289 | 82 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +8 | +9 | 0.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 61% | 418 | 374 | 82 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 103 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 218 | 295 | 336 | 631 | 118 | 276 | 25 | 8 | 286 | 79 | -10 | +0 | -1 | +7 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 62% | 407 | 365 | 79 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 101 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 215 | 291 | 328 | 619 | 113 | 274 | 25 | 8 | 281 | 76 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | BAL | 63% | 375 | 336 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 95 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 211 | 286 | 318 | 604 | 107 | 271 | 25 | 8 | 275 | 72 | -12 | -0 | -3 | +7 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | BAL | 34% | 65 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 218 | 295 | 333 | 629 | 115 | 279 | 25 | 8 | 285 | 76 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 48% | 136 | 122 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 222 | 299 | 343 | 642 | 121 | 280 | 24 | 7 | 290 | 80 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 188 | 167 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 45 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 225 | 302 | 350 | 652 | 126 | 282 | 24 | 8 | 294 | 82 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 217 | 194 | 45 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 52 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 226 | 303 | 355 | 658 | 129 | 283 | 24 | 8 | 297 | 84 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 56% | 233 | 208 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 56 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 227 | 304 | 358 | 662 | 130 | 283 | 24 | 8 | 298 | 85 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 235 | 209 | 48 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 57 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 226 | 303 | 355 | 658 | 129 | 283 | 24 | 8 | 296 | 84 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 59% | 251 | 224 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 61 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 224 | 301 | 350 | 651 | 126 | 281 | 24 | 8 | 294 | 82 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 61% | 254 | 227 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 62 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 222 | 298 | 343 | 641 | 122 | 280 | 24 | 8 | 290 | 79 | -6 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 62% | 253 | 226 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 63 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 218 | 294 | 335 | 629 | 117 | 278 | 25 | 8 | 285 | 76 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | BAL | 63% | 236 | 212 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 60 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 214 | 289 | 325 | 614 | 111 | 275 | 25 | 8 | 279 | 72 | -8 | -0 | -2 | +4 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2068 | 1848 | 415 | 75 | 15 | 42 | 162 | 505 | 41 | 47 | 19 | 225 | 301 | 350 | 651 | 125 | 285 | 24 | 8 | 291 | 77 | -49 | +2 | -4 | +37 | +45 | 3.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 581 | 131 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 51 | 159 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 225 | 303 | 351 | 654 | 126 | 286 | 24 | 8 | 291 | 77 | -15 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4396 | 3898 | 837 | 145 | 33 | 79 | 346 | 1099 | 110 | 125 | 52 | 215 | 297 | 330 | 627 | 115 | 276 | 25 | 8 | 283 | 77 | -91 | +3 | -7 | +69 | +83 | 5.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 576 | 124 | 21 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 162 | 16 | 18 | 8 | 215 | 297 | 332 | 629 | 116 | 276 | 25 | 8 | 283 | 77 | -15 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 208 PAwOBA .294 → .252 (−42)K% 22.1% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.81% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 3.86% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 20.40% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 2.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.019 | ×1.030 | 3.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.63% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.34% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .294 → .252; ISO .107 → .094; BABIP .276 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 35 PAwOBA .396 → .313 (−83)K% 14.3% → 20.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 3.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.71% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 4.09% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 23.80% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 5.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.23% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .396 → .313; ISO .172 → .136; BABIP .375 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Orioles · 136 PAwOBA .369 → .260 (−110)K% 22.1% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.06% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.40% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.44% | ÷1.020 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 9.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.997 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 20.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.75% | ÷1.033 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 2.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.50% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.93% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .369 → .260; ISO .173 → .121; BABIP .325 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 131 PAwOBA .379 → .258 (−121)K% 18.3% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.32% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.74% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 9.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 13.74% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 9.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.29% | ÷1.082 | ×0.680 | ×0.986 | ×1.008 | 12.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.70% | ÷0.924 | ×0.600 | ×0.986 | ×1.008 | 5.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.986 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.90% | ÷0.992 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.38% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 116, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .379 → .258; ISO .129 → .080; BABIP .294 → .183. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 49 PAwOBA .340 → .219 (−122)K% 26.5% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.53% | ÷0.941 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.20% | ÷1.049 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 6.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.08% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.051 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.022 | 16.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷0.991 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 4.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.018 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.022 | 4.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.847 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 104, K 88, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .340 → .219; ISO .146 → .087; BABIP .393 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).