Wilmer Lugo

P FCL Mets

Age 21 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKDSL Mets Blue	11	7	32	3.94	3.41	22.0%	16.7%	—	K 15.0% · BB 20.8% · FIP 4.47
2025	19	ROKDSL Mets Blue	9	0	11	9.00	6.83	13.1%	31.1%	—	K 8.9% · BB 38.9% · FIP 7.28
2026	20	MIX2 levels	12	0	12	9.49	5.69	19.7%	22.7%	—	K 15.0% · BB 23.3% · FIP 6.09
2027PROJ	21	MLBNYM	8	0	8	5.92	5.92	20.2%	20.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBNYM	10	0	10	5.52	5.36	21.5%	16.6%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsBrayan Restituyo (age 21) · CD Pelham (age 20) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129137vR 146

ERA5.92

FIP5.92

K%20.2%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%0.2%

Proj IP8

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	11	7	32	168	37	28	0	64%	2.9	15.0%	20.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	3.94	4.47	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	11	7	32	168	37	28	0	64%	2.9	15.0%	20.8%	-5.9%	0.0%	3.94	4.47	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	11	7	32	168	37	28	0	64%	2.9	22.0%	16.7%	5.4%	0.0%	3.94	3.41	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	9	0	11	61	8	19	0	0%	1.2	8.9%	38.9%	-30.0%	0.0%	9.00	7.28	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	9	0	11	61	8	19	0	0%	1.2	8.9%	38.9%	-30.0%	0.0%	9.00	7.28	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	9	0	11	61	8	19	0	0%	1.2	13.1%	31.1%	-18.0%	0.0%	9.00	6.83	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	12	66	13	15	1	0%	1.0	15.0%	23.3%	-8.3%	2.4%	9.49	6.09	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	12	66	13	15	1	0%	1.0	15.0%	23.3%	-8.3%	2.4%	9.49	6.09	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	12	66	13	15	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	22.7%	-3.0%	1.5%	9.49	5.69	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	NYM	8	0	8	34	7	7	1	0%	1.0	20.2%	20.0%	0.2%	2.9%	5.92	5.92	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYM	19	0	20	84	18	14	2	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.6%	4.9%	2.9%	5.52	5.36	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYM	10	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	16.6%	4.9%	2.9%	5.52	5.36	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	7	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.6%	4.9%	2.9%	5.52	4.98	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	142	20	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.6%	4.9%	2.9%	5.52	4.98	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		32	7	55	295	40	74	2	22%	1.7	13.7%	25.1%	-11.4%	0.5%	6.18	5.42	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	25	200	1066	146	268	6	22%	1.7	13.7%	25.1%	-11.4%	0.5%	6.18	5.42	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilmer Lugo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.92	20.2%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.36	21.5%	4.9%	20	-0.56	—	—	—
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	82
CD Pelham L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	20	SU	4.77	18.8%	18.7%	1.6%	.286	4.00	20.4%	7.8%	109	-0.77	3.39	288	82
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	82
Adrian Almeida L 2016 · 5.65 FIP	21	SU	5.65	18.6%	15.3%	4.0%	.295	4.97	18.4%	-4.1%	119	-0.68	4.27	188	80
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	80
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	79
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	79
Blake Townsend L 2022 · 5.83 FIP	21	SU	5.83	18.3%	17.5%	3.8%	.170	3.73	18.1%	8.4%	167	-2.10	3.34	305	79
Yenfri Sosa L 2024 · 6.08 FIP	20	SU	6.08	19.0%	21.3%	3.4%	.309	4.41	21.7%	7.4%	38	-1.67	2.49	128	79
Roberto Medina L 2024 · 5.29 FIP	19	SW	5.29	18.5%	19.6%	2.3%	.254	5.91	15.1%	-2.7%	45	+0.62	3.87	109	79
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	78
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	78
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	77
Jayvien Sandridge L 2019 · 6.78 FIP	20	SU	6.78	19.0%	23.9%	4.1%	.324	3.61	27.9%	5.2%	41	-3.17	3.25	223	77
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	77
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	76
Kevin Escorcia L 2016 · 5.05 FIP	21	SU	5.05	17.3%	21.2%	1.3%	.233	3.48	22.1%	9.2%	129	-1.57	3.16	189	76
Alex Robinson L 2016 · 5.59 FIP	21	SU	5.59	22.4%	26.9%	1.8%	.243	4.03	23.8%	8.8%	90	-1.56	3.69	135	76
Francis Beriguete L 2021 · 6.05 FIP	21	SU	6.05	20.8%	27.7%	2.2%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	101	76
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	75