Giovanni Vargas

P FCL Cardinals

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 179 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKSTL	13	16	6.75	4.16	21.8%	21.8%	—	K 14.8% · BB 27.2% · FIP 5.30
2025	19	MIX2 levels	14	20	5.40	4.25	13.8%	8.0%	—	K 9.7% · BB 8.1% · FIP 4.18
2026	20	MIX2 levels	16	24	4.44	4.17	20.9%	13.9%	—	K 14.8% · BB 17.7% · FIP 5.54
2027PROJ	21	MLBSTL	11	12	5.29	5.29	19.6%	14.5%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBSTL	10	11	5.02	4.90	21.1%	12.6%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMichael Perez (age 21) · Kasey Ford (age 23) · Tyler Smith (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%19.6%

BB%14.5%

K-BB%5.0%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	14	1	18	85	24	11	0	7%	1.3	19.2%	16.2%	3.0%	0.0%	5.50	3.53	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	14	1	18	85	24	11	0	7%	1.3	28.2%	12.9%	15.3%	0.0%	5.50	2.27	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	13	0	16	78	17	17	0	0%	1.2	14.8%	27.2%	-12.4%	0.0%	6.75	5.30	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	13	0	16	78	17	17	0	0%	1.2	14.8%	27.2%	-12.4%	0.0%	6.75	5.30	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	13	0	16	78	17	17	0	0%	1.2	21.8%	21.8%	0.0%	0.0%	6.75	4.16	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	20	87	12	7	2	0%	1.4	9.7%	8.1%	1.6%	1.6%	5.40	4.18	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	20	87	12	7	2	0%	1.4	9.7%	8.1%	1.6%	1.6%	5.40	4.18	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	20	87	12	7	2	0%	1.4	13.8%	8.0%	5.7%	2.3%	5.40	4.25	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	24	115	24	16	2	0%	1.5	14.8%	17.7%	-2.9%	2.6%	4.44	5.54	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	24	115	24	16	2	0%	1.5	14.8%	17.7%	-2.9%	2.6%	4.44	5.54	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	24	115	24	16	2	0%	1.5	20.9%	13.9%	7.0%	1.7%	4.44	4.17	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	STL	11	0	12	51	10	7	2	0%	1.1	19.6%	14.5%	5.0%	3.0%	5.29	5.29	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	STL	22	0	23	97	20	12	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.6%	8.4%	2.9%	5.02	4.90	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	STL	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.6%	8.4%	2.9%	5.02	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	11	48	10	6	1	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.6%	8.4%	2.9%	5.02	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	177	106	18	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.6%	8.4%	2.9%	5.02	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		57	1	78	365	53	62	4	2%	1.4	14.6%	17.1%	-2.5%	1.2%	5.40	4.70	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	3	200	932	136	159	11	2%	1.4	14.6%	17.1%	-2.5%	1.2%	5.40	4.70	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Giovanni Vargas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	19.6%	14.5%	3.0%	—	4.90	21.1%	8.4%	23	-0.39	—	—	—
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	91
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	90
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	90
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	89
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	89
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	88
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	88
Drew Pestka R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	20	SU	4.26	19.0%	15.1%	1.6%	.298	4.55	18.1%	0.7%	83	+0.29	3.42	100	88
Zack Hess R 2019 · 5.00 FIP	22	SU	5.00	18.1%	13.1%	3.2%	.232	5.47	22.9%	6.3%	50	+0.47	5.00	101	88
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	87
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	87
Tim Naughton R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	21	SU	4.53	17.9%	15.6%	1.8%	.312	3.58	20.7%	6.4%	83	-0.95	2.93	305	87
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	87
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	87
Hobie Harris R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	22	SU	4.28	18.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.239	3.36	21.2%	12.0%	144	-0.92	3.31	476	87
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	87
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86
Jake Bird R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	22	SU	4.59	17.7%	13.0%	2.4%	.254	3.65	16.1%	4.9%	156	-0.94	3.06	525	86
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	86
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	86