Jake Bird — OGILVIE

Jake Bird P Washington Nationals

Age 30 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION53 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.89

FIP3.80

K%23.8%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%14.4%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p6227.1%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

FB+1.0 (49%)

SI (33%)

CU (11%)

CT-0.8 (3%)

SL-1.9 (38%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	Grand Junction Rockies	17	0	27	115	30	12	2	0%	1.6	17.7%	13.0%	4.7%	2.4%	3.38	4.59	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	Grand Junction Rockies	17	0	27	115	30	12	2	0%	1.6	26.1%	10.4%	15.7%	1.7%	3.38	3.18	—
2019	23	A MLE	Asheville Tourists	40	8	97	430	80	41	2	20%	2.4	13.8%	11.3%	2.5%	0.5%	3.62	3.63	—
2019	23	A RAW	Asheville Tourists	40	8	97	430	80	41	2	20%	2.4	18.6%	9.5%	9.1%	0.5%	3.62	2.99	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	2	59	253	59	26	4	5%	1.5	19.9%	10.9%	9.0%	1.6%	3.37	3.68	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	2	59	253	59	26	4	5%	1.5	23.3%	10.3%	13.0%	1.6%	3.37	3.30	—
2022	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	0	74	317	76	29	10	0%	1.2	22.7%	9.3%	13.4%	2.9%	4.15	3.97	+0.5
2022	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	0	74	317	76	29	10	0%	1.2	24.0%	9.1%	14.8%	3.2%	4.15	3.98	+0.5
2023	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	70	3	89	381	77	27	6	4%	1.3	20.2%	7.1%	13.1%	1.4%	4.33	3.06	+1.6
2023	27	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	70	3	89	381	77	27	6	4%	1.3	20.2%	7.1%	13.1%	1.4%	4.33	3.06	+1.6
2023	27	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	70	3	89	381	77	27	6	4%	1.3	20.2%	7.1%	13.1%	1.6%	4.33	3.16	+1.5
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	1	55	259	52	31	9	2%	1.1	18.3%	11.9%	6.5%	2.9%	4.77	4.66	-0.1
2024	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	1	55	259	52	31	9	2%	1.1	18.3%	11.9%	6.5%	2.9%	4.77	4.66	-0.1
2024	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	1	55	259	52	31	9	2%	1.1	20.1%	12.0%	8.1%	3.5%	4.77	5.04	-0.3
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	71	320	89	32	8	0%	1.1	26.6%	9.7%	16.9%	2.4%	5.70	3.38	+1.0
2025	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	71	320	89	32	8	0%	1.1	26.6%	9.7%	16.9%	2.4%	5.70	3.38	+1.0
2025	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	71	320	89	32	8	0%	1.1	27.8%	10.0%	17.8%	2.5%	5.70	3.41	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			235	3	271	1197	257	105	31	1%	1.2	21.5%	8.8%	12.7%	2.6%	4.85	3.85	+2.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	57	0	53	223	58	17	8	0%	0.9	24.7%	7.4%	17.3%	3.7%	4.44	3.97	+0.4
YTD	30	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	57	0	53	223	58	17	8	0%	0.9	24.7%	7.4%	17.3%	3.7%	4.44	3.97	+0.4
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	30	AAA RAW	WSH	13	0	14	51	17	4	2	0%	1.1	33.3%	7.8%	25.5%	3.9%	1.93	3.43	—
2026	30	MLB RAW	WSH	44	0	39	172	41	13	6	0%	0.9	23.8%	7.6%	16.3%	3.5%	5.35	3.96	+0.3
SO FAR	30	MLB RAW	WSH	44	0	39	172	41	13	6	0%	0.9	23.8%	7.6%	16.3%	3.5%	5.35	3.96	+0.3
ROS	30	MLB MLE	WSH	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.4%	14.4%	2.8%	3.89	3.80	+0.0
ROS	30	MLB CTX	WSH	4	0	4	17	4	2	0	0%	1.0	23.8%	9.4%	14.4%	2.8%	3.89	3.80	+0.0
2026 TOT	30	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	57	240	62	19	8	—	—	25.8%	7.7%	18.1%	3.5%	4.40	3.96	+0.4
FULL	30	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	43	180	62	19	8	—	—	34.4%	10.3%	24.1%	4.7%	5.85	4.08	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	WSH	47	0	49	207	47	20	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.1%	4.46	4.52	+0.0
2028	32	MLB MLE	WSH	43	0	45	191	42	19	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	3.4%	4.65	4.77	-0.1
2029	33	MLB MLE	WSH	40	0	42	176	37	19	6	0%	1.0	20.9%	10.6%	10.4%	3.6%	4.89	5.05	-0.2
2027	31	MLB CTX	WSH	45	0	47	198	45	19	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	9.7%	12.9%	3.1%	4.46	4.52	+0.0
2028	32	MLB CTX	WSH	41	0	43	182	40	18	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.1%	11.7%	3.4%	4.65	4.77	-0.1
2029	33	MLB CTX	WSH	38	0	40	169	35	18	6	0%	1.1	20.9%	10.6%	10.4%	3.6%	4.89	5.05	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		362	3	404	1759	380	162	50	1%	1.1	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.78	4.00	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		179	1	200	871	188	80	25	1%	1.1	21.6%	9.2%	12.4%	2.8%	4.78	4.00	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		396	14	524	2298	467	226	47	4%	1.3	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	2.0%	4.26	3.75	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	5	200	878	178	86	18	4%	1.3	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	2.0%	4.26	3.75	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Bird (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	23.0%	10.2%	2.7%	—	4.77	21.8%	11.7%	136	+0.46	—	—	—
Adam Warren R 2018 · 3.72 FIP	30	SU	3.72	23.3%	8.5%	2.8%	.288	4.69	20.6%	9.9%	86	+0.97	2.72	392	81
Ryan Tepera R 2018 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	25.9%	8.7%	3.4%	.282	3.20	28.4%	19.9%	104	-0.70	2.35	445	78
Drew Storen R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	29	SU	3.83	19.5%	7.3%	2.6%	.289	4.31	19.4%	8.4%	10	+0.48	2.36	172	78
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	78
Alex Colomé R 2019 · 3.82 FIP	30	SU	3.82	22.1%	8.4%	2.8%	.211	3.78	17.8%	9.4%	134	-0.04	2.72	530	77
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	77
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	77
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	77
Sam Dyson R 2018 · 3.34 FIP	30	SU	3.34	20.5%	7.0%	2.0%	.264	3.21	22.1%	16.9%	62	-0.13	2.66	333	76
Daniel Hudson R 2017 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	24.4%	11.8%	2.8%	.301	4.01	24.1%	15.2%	140	-0.06	1.68	468	76
Ross Ohlendorf R 2015 · 3.30 FIP	32	SU	3.30	23.7%	7.2%	2.3%	.342	4.93	23.4%	12.7%	66	+1.63	3.30	122	75
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	75
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	31	SU	3.34	26.5%	9.6%	2.3%	.241	3.89	23.3%	13.2%	105	+0.55	3.34	212	75
David Hernandez R 2015 · 4.40 FIP	30	SU	4.40	22.9%	7.6%	4.1%	.287	3.17	24.9%	18.4%	192	-1.23	2.60	268	74
Kevin Jepsen R 2015 · 3.47 FIP	31	SU	3.47	20.7%	9.1%	1.8%	.241	5.85	16.9%	7.2%	90	+2.38	3.47	160	74
David Phelps R 2017 · 3.31 FIP	30	SU	3.31	26.1%	9.7%	2.1%	.311	4.59	29.0%	20.0%	55	+1.28	2.50	373	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	74
Erik Davis R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	30	SU	4.25	22.2%	11.1%	3.0%	.349	3.52	17.4%	8.5%	65	-0.73	3.05	227	73
Joakim Soria R 2015 · 3.70 FIP	31	SU	3.70	23.5%	6.6%	3.2%	.258	2.91	26.6%	18.9%	183	-0.79	2.01	380	73
Carlos Fisher R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	32	SU	3.45	22.6%	11.6%	1.4%	.236	3.17	22.5%	11.1%	91	-0.28	2.48	147	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	46	22.1%	10.1%	1.23	4.59
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63