Jake Bird
P
New York Yankees
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION33 act + 22 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10798vR 89
ERA3.95
FIP3.86
K%23.0%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.4%
ROS IP22
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p6227.1%
K%
p5322.7%
xwOBA vs
p320.333
FB+1.0 (49%)
SI (36%)
CU (12%)
CT-0.8 (3%)
SL-1.9 (39%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 17 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 30 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.7% | 13.0% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 3.38 | 4.59 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 17 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 30 | 12 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 26.1% | 10.4% | 15.7% | 1.7% | 3.38 | 3.18 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Asheville Tourists | 40 | 8 | 97 | 430 | 80 | 41 | 2 | 20% | 2.4 | 13.8% | 11.3% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 3.62 | 3.58 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Asheville Tourists | 40 | 8 | 97 | 430 | 80 | 41 | 2 | 20% | 2.4 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 0.5% | 3.62 | 2.99 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 2 | 59 | 253 | 59 | 26 | 4 | 5% | 1.5 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 1.5% | 3.37 | 3.60 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 39 | 2 | 59 | 253 | 59 | 26 | 4 | 5% | 1.5 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 1.6% | 3.37 | 3.30 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 74 | 317 | 76 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 3.80 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 60 | 0 | 74 | 317 | 76 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.15 | 3.98 | +0.7 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 3 | 89 | 381 | 77 | 27 | 6 | 4% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 1.2% | 4.33 | 2.95 | +2.3 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 3 | 89 | 381 | 77 | 27 | 6 | 4% | 1.3 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 1.6% | 4.33 | 3.16 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 1 | 55 | 259 | 52 | 31 | 9 | 2% | 1.1 | 18.7% | 12.3% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.77 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 1 | 55 | 259 | 52 | 31 | 9 | 2% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 12.0% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 4.77 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 71 | 320 | 89 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 10.2% | 16.8% | 2.3% | 5.70 | 3.40 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 29 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 71 | 320 | 89 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.8% | 10.0% | 17.8% | 2.5% | 5.70 | 3.41 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 38 | 0 | 33 | 140 | 34 | 9 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.7% | 6.8% | 15.9% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 3.71 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYY | 21 | 0 | 22 | 95 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.86 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYY | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 2.7% | 3.95 | 3.86 | +0.2 |
| 2026 TOT | 30 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 55 | 235 | 56 | 18 | 7 | — | — | 23.8% | 7.7% | 16.1% | 2.8% | 4.06 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| 2026 FULL | 30 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 52 | 222 | 56 | 18 | 7 | — | — | 25.2% | 8.2% | 17.0% | 3.0% | 4.26 | 3.63 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 43 | 0 | 45 | 191 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 44 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 12.4% | 2.9% | 4.41 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 39 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 35 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 370 | 3 | 414 | 1797 | 385 | 166 | 49 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 3.96 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 179 | 1 | 200 | 868 | 186 | 80 | 24 | 1% | 1.1 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 4.65 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 377 | 14 | 504 | 2215 | 445 | 221 | 40 | 4% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 1.8% | 4.23 | 3.65 | +10.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 150 | 6 | 200 | 880 | 177 | 88 | 16 | 4% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 1.8% | 4.23 | 3.65 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Bird (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.2% | 10.6% | 2.6% | — | 4.71 | 21.5% | 11.2% | 136 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 76 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 75 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2027 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 75 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2029 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 74 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 74 |
| David Hernandez R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.32 | 22.9% | 7.6% | 4.0% | .287 | 3.20 | 24.9% | 18.4% | 192 | -1.12 | 2.56 | 268 | 74 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 74 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 73 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 73 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 73 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 72 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.79 | 24.5% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .307 | 3.52 | 25.3% | 16.0% | 74 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 210 | 72 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 72 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 72 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 72 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 0.9% | .333 | 3.74 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.54 | 3.20 | 244 | 72 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 47 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 1.17 | 4.54 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |