Jake Bird
P
New York Yankees
+0.3
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
MLB
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.39
FIP4.16
xFIP2.81
SIERA2.37
K%23.8%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%13.9%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†5555
FB Velo
p4894.4
Whiff%
p6828.1%
K%
p7426.6%
xwOBA vs
p570.305
FB+1.0 (36%)
SI (32%)
CU (17%)
CT-0.8 (7%)
SL-1.9 (40%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Grand Junction Rockies | 17 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 30 | 12 | 2 | 17.7% | 13.0% | 2.4% | 3.38 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 23 | A | Asheville Tourists | 40 | 8 | 97 | 430 | 80 | 41 | 2 | 13.8% | 11.3% | 0.5% | 3.62 | 3.63 | +1.8 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Albuquerque Isotopes | 39 | 2 | 59 | 253 | 59 | 26 | 4 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 1.6% | 3.37 | 3.70 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 26 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 60 | 0 | 74 | 317 | 76 | 29 | 10 | 22.7% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.15 | 3.79 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 27 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 3 | 89 | 381 | 77 | 27 | 6 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 4.33 | 3.11 | +2.1 |
| 2024 | 28 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 50 | 1 | 55 | 259 | 52 | 31 | 9 | 18.7% | 12.3% | 3.1% | 4.77 | 4.79 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 29 | MLB | New York Yankees | 63 | 0 | 71 | 320 | 89 | 32 | 8 | 26.9% | 10.2% | 2.3% | 5.70 | 3.40 | +1.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | New York Yankees | 8 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| ROS | 30 | MLB | NYY | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 44 | 20 | 5 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.51 | 4.38 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 30 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 52 | 224 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 23.7% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.94 | 3.80 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 49 | 21 | 6 | 23.0% | 10.0% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 46 | — | 46 | 196 | 43 | 20 | 6 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.53 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.74 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 42 | — | 42 | 176 | 36 | 19 | 6 | 20.3% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.80 | 4.89 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 19.5% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.05 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 347 | 14 | 478 | 2107 | 423 | 213 | 40 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 1.9% | 4.29 | 3.72 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 145 | 6 | 200 | 882 | 177 | 89 | 17 | 20.1% | 10.1% | 1.9% | 4.29 | 3.72 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Bird (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.9% | 10.5% | 2.7% | — | 4.47 | 22.4% | 12.2% | 146 | +0.09 | — | — | — |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 76 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 76 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 75 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 75 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .303 | 3.87 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.43 | 3.01 | 260 | 75 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.44 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .348 | 2.85 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.59 | 2.85 | 199 | 75 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 74 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 74 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 74 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 74 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 73 |
| Tyler Herron R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 117 | 73 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 73 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.62 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.8% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 224 | 73 |
| Esteban Haro R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.58 | 17.1% | 10.2% | 3.0% | .338 | 3.79 | 11.6% | 6.3% | 75 | -0.79 | 3.73 | 164 | 73 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.80 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 3.29 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.51 | 3.15 | 485 | 73 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.83 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.2% | .292 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.52 | 1.30 | 218 | 73 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 73 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.