Frailin Florian — OGILVIE

Frailin Florian P DSL Rays

Age 22 LHP 6'6" / 222 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 9 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 142

ERA5.71

FIP5.71

K%22.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%2.9%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	16	0	19	108	34	29	1	0%	1.2	21.4%	33.6%	-12.2%	1.3%	8.38	6.27	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	16	0	19	108	34	29	1	0%	1.2	21.4%	33.6%	-12.2%	1.3%	8.38	6.27	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	16	0	19	108	34	29	1	0%	1.2	31.5%	26.9%	4.6%	0.9%	8.38	4.76	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	1	14	75	22	17	0	8%	1.2	19.9%	28.3%	-8.4%	0.0%	7.07	5.00	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	1	14	75	22	17	0	8%	1.2	19.9%	28.3%	-8.4%	0.0%	7.07	5.00	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	12	1	14	75	22	17	0	8%	1.2	29.3%	22.7%	6.7%	0.0%	7.07	3.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TB	9	0	9	38	9	8	1	0%	1.0	22.9%	20.0%	2.9%	3.0%	5.71	5.71	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	20	14	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.35	5.21	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	10	0	10	42	10	7	1	0%	1.0	23.6%	16.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.35	5.21	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	7	1	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.35	4.83	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	142	20	0%	1.1	23.6%	16.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.35	4.83	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		28	1	33	183	38	58	1	4%	1.2	20.8%	31.4%	-10.6%	0.8%	7.83	5.75	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		168	6	200	1098	228	345	9	4%	1.2	20.8%	31.4%	-10.6%	0.8%	7.83	5.75	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Frailin Florian (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.71	22.9%	20.0%	3.0%	—	5.21	23.6%	6.9%	20	-0.50	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	87
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	87
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	85
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	85
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	84
Angel Hernandez L 2022 · 5.53 FIP	22	SU	5.53	23.4%	21.0%	3.2%	.262	4.36	21.2%	1.6%	123	-1.17	3.33	182	83
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	82
Renyel Pinto L 2006 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	26.7%	20.0%	2.2%	.246	4.42	21.2%	7.6%	185	-0.18	3.58	231	82
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	81
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	80
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.12	24.1%	5.4%	99	-2.30	3.91	148	80
Felix Polanco L 2022 · 5.19 FIP	22	SU	5.19	18.7%	19.9%	2.1%	.290	3.68	18.8%	12.8%	27	-1.51	3.68	105	80
Brendan Cellucci L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	26.3%	18.6%	2.4%	.398	4.63	23.4%	6.9%	172	+0.06	3.98	288	78
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	77
Trevor Seidenberger L 2015 · 4.64 FIP	23	SU	4.64	18.1%	14.3%	2.3%	.248	6.29	13.1%	-1.8%	52	+1.65	4.64	101	77
Destin Dotson L 2022 · 5.84 FIP	22	SU	5.84	23.0%	19.9%	4.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	113	76
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	76
B.J. Ryan L 2000 · 5.27 FIP	24	SU	5.27	21.2%	15.5%	3.6%	.252	3.59	24.5%	12.9%	161	-1.68	1.77	532	76
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	75
Ronan Kopp L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	22	SU	4.60	25.0%	19.9%	2.0%	.312	3.98	25.4%	8.3%	104	-0.62	2.93	284	75