Walvin Mena
P
Visalia Rawhide
Age 20
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION27 act + 68 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130121vR 112
ERA4.92
FIP4.92
K%20.6%
BB%12.1%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP68
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 95 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 8 | 7 | 28 | 125 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 88% | 3.5 | 5.4% | 12.0% | -6.6% | 2.1% | 2.22 | 5.30 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 8 | 7 | 28 | 125 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 88% | 3.5 | 8.0% | 9.6% | -1.6% | 1.6% | 2.22 | 4.58 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 9 | 8 | 30 | 122 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 89% | 3.3 | 16.7% | 13.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.60 | 5.27 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 9 | 8 | 30 | 122 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 89% | 3.3 | 24.6% | 10.7% | 13.9% | 3.3% | 3.60 | 4.13 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 10 | 2 | 14 | 69 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 20% | 1.4 | 14.8% | 14.5% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 5.22 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 10 | 2 | 14 | 69 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 20% | 1.4 | 21.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 1.4% | 3.77 | 3.59 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 17 | 1 | 27 | 124 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 6% | 1.6 | 11.8% | 12.5% | -0.7% | 5.8% | 5.67 | 6.85 | -0.7 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | ARI | 65 | 0 | 68 | 288 | 59 | 35 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.0% | 4.92 | 4.92 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.6% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.96 | 4.96 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 95 | 412 | 78 | 48 | 14 | — | — | 19.0% | 11.6% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 5.13 | 5.47 | -0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ARI | 68 | 0 | 72 | 302 | 67 | 34 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 2.9% | 4.73 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 72 | 0 | 75 | 318 | 76 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.37 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 74 | 0 | 78 | 329 | 82 | 33 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.20 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 76 | 0 | 80 | 337 | 87 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 25.7% | 9.8% | 15.9% | 2.8% | 4.19 | 4.10 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 77 | 0 | 81 | 342 | 89 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 9.7% | 16.4% | 2.8% | 4.10 | 4.04 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 77 | 0 | 81 | 342 | 90 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 2.8% | 4.05 | 4.02 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 76 | 0 | 80 | 337 | 95 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.3% | 8.9% | 19.4% | 2.9% | 3.89 | 3.79 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 74 | 0 | 77 | 326 | 92 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 9.0% | 19.1% | 3.0% | 3.88 | 3.87 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 87 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 9.3% | 18.6% | 3.1% | 3.95 | 4.00 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.6% | 9.6% | 18.0% | 3.3% | 4.09 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ARI | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 33 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 3.0% | 4.77 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 56 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 70 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.1% | 10.1% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 68 | 0 | 71 | 300 | 77 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 25.7% | 9.8% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 70 | 0 | 74 | 312 | 81 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.1% | 9.7% | 16.4% | 2.9% | 4.13 | 4.07 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 71 | 0 | 75 | 317 | 83 | 30 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.05 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 72 | 0 | 76 | 321 | 91 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 8.9% | 19.4% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.83 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 70 | 0 | 73 | 308 | 87 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.2% | 9.0% | 19.1% | 3.0% | 3.92 | 3.91 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 83 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 9.3% | 18.6% | 3.2% | 3.99 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 63 | 0 | 66 | 279 | 77 | 27 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.6% | 9.6% | 18.0% | 3.4% | 4.13 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 630 | 0 | 662 | 2794 | 738 | 270 | 84 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 9.7% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 3.74 | +12.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 223 | 82 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.4% | 9.7% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 3.74 | +3.9 | ||
| Career | — | 44 | 18 | 100 | 440 | 52 | 57 | 16 | 41% | 2.3 | 11.8% | 12.9% | -1.1% | 3.6% | 3.79 | 5.72 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 88 | 36 | 200 | 883 | 104 | 114 | 32 | 41% | 2.3 | 11.8% | 12.9% | -1.1% | 3.6% | 3.79 | 5.72 | -0.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Walvin Mena (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.92 | 20.6% | 12.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.40 | 23.8% | 13.2% | 225 | -0.52 | — | — | — |
| Alec Barger R 2029 · 4.33 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.33 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 2.5% | .289 | 4.24 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 148 | -0.09 | 3.96 | 242 | 84 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2029 · 4.25 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.25 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.88 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 188 | +0.63 | 4.17 | 257 | 84 |
| William Kempner R 2028 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 2.0% | .277 | 3.32 | 29.2% | 14.5% | 112 | -0.62 | 3.29 | 173 | 83 |
| Joan Gregorio R 2029 · 4.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.56 | 18.0% | 10.2% | 3.1% | .269 | 4.23 | 21.1% | 11.1% | 208 | -0.33 | 3.60 | 301 | 83 |
| Josh White R 2028 · 5.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.45 | 17.7% | 13.9% | 3.8% | .244 | 3.02 | 28.9% | 17.7% | 167 | -2.43 | 1.95 | 232 | 82 |
| Yimmi Brasoban R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.91 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .261 | 4.44 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 78 | +0.53 | 3.39 | 149 | 82 |
| Corey Black R 2029 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.14 | 22.1% | 13.9% | 2.1% | .310 | 3.60 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 53 | -0.54 | 3.60 | 139 | 82 |
| Edgar Manzo R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.71 | 16.7% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .303 | 5.01 | 13.1% | 3.3% | 125 | +0.30 | 4.35 | 249 | 82 |
| David Perez R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.93 | 21.1% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .292 | 5.13 | 15.6% | 1.9% | 67 | +1.20 | 3.93 | 151 | 82 |
| Jhonny Polanco R 2029 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.76 | 18.9% | 14.2% | 2.7% | .283 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 5.7% | 48 | -0.84 | 3.92 | 116 | 82 |
| Jack Carey R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.47 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 156 | -0.08 | 3.71 | 250 | 81 |
| Johzan Oquendo R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 18.4% | 14.5% | 1.5% | .294 | 3.67 | 23.5% | 5.7% | 113 | -0.54 | 3.61 | 187 | 81 |
| Miguel Guerrero R 2027 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.1% | .349 | 5.04 | 17.5% | 5.4% | 115 | -0.00 | 4.49 | 171 | 81 |
| Saul Teran R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.23 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 4.3% | .333 | 3.83 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 94 | -1.40 | 2.28 | 158 | 81 |
| Miguel Castro R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.42 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.53 | 14.5% | 4.9% | 207 | +0.11 | 3.33 | 554 | 81 |
| Victor Garcia R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.09 | 16.5% | 11.1% | 1.8% | .325 | 3.85 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 79 | -0.24 | 3.39 | 147 | 81 |
| Joangel Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.42 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .312 | 4.91 | 19.4% | 3.4% | 93 | +0.49 | 3.96 | 127 | 81 |
| Peyton Stumbo R 2028 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.02 | 19.0% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .326 | 4.77 | 15.5% | 7.4% | 167 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 235 | 81 |
| Joel Ibarra R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.90 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 1.6% | .323 | 4.73 | 19.6% | -3.4% | 86 | +0.83 | 3.90 | 155 | 80 |
| Carlos Campos R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.43 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 3.1% | .304 | 5.57 | 15.3% | 8.1% | 19 | +1.14 | 4.43 | 134 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 11 | 76 | 25.7% | 9.9% | 1.13 | 4.23 |
| Daniel Hudson ('24) | 9 | 52 | 25.5% | 8.9% | 1.13 | 3.75 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 10 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Joe Kelly ('24) | 9 | 56 | 24.6% | 10.3% | 0.81 | 4.40 |
| Matt Barnes ('23) | 9 | 49 | 29.6% | 10.8% | 1.03 | 4.14 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |