Walvin Mena — OGILVIE

Walvin Mena P Visalia Rawhide

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%20.6%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5060

CMD2040

K†5065

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	8	7	28	125	10	12	2	88%	3.5	5.4%	12.0%	-6.6%	2.2%	2.22	5.34	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	8	7	28	125	10	12	2	88%	3.5	5.4%	12.0%	-6.6%	2.2%	2.22	5.34	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	8	7	28	125	10	12	2	88%	3.5	8.0%	9.6%	-1.6%	1.6%	2.22	4.58	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	9	8	30	122	30	13	4	89%	3.3	16.7%	13.3%	3.4%	3.9%	3.60	5.54	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	9	8	30	122	30	13	4	89%	3.3	16.7%	13.3%	3.4%	3.9%	3.60	5.54	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	9	8	30	122	30	13	4	89%	3.3	24.6%	10.7%	13.9%	3.3%	3.60	4.13	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	10	2	14	69	15	8	1	20%	1.4	14.8%	14.5%	0.3%	2.4%	3.77	4.98	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	10	2	14	69	15	8	1	20%	1.4	14.8%	14.5%	0.3%	2.4%	3.77	4.98	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	10	2	14	69	15	8	1	20%	1.4	21.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.4%	3.77	3.59	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	19	1	29	139	19	16	5	5%	1.5	11.8%	12.5%	-0.7%	5.8%	5.52	6.85	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	19	1	29	139	19	16	5	5%	1.5	11.8%	12.5%	-0.7%	5.8%	5.52	6.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	ARI	7	0	5	26	1	4	0	0%	0.7	3.8%	15.4%	-11.5%	0.0%	3.86	4.72	—
2026	20	A RAW	ARI	12	1	25	113	18	12	5	8%	2.1	15.9%	10.6%	5.3%	4.4%	5.84	5.53	—
ROS	20	MLB MLE	ARI	5	0	6	24	5	3	1	0%	1.1	20.6%	13.7%	6.9%	3.0%	5.12	5.12	-0.0
2026 TOT	20	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	35	163	24	19	6	—	—	14.7%	11.8%	2.9%	3.5%	5.46	6.57	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ARI	68	0	72	302	67	38	9	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.89	4.79	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	72	0	75	318	76	36	9	0%	1.0	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.48	+0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	74	0	78	329	82	35	9	0%	1.1	25.1%	10.8%	14.3%	2.8%	4.42	4.29	+0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	76	0	80	337	87	35	10	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.4%	15.3%	2.8%	4.27	4.17	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	77	0	81	342	89	35	10	0%	1.1	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	2.8%	4.17	4.10	+0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	77	0	81	342	90	35	10	0%	1.1	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	2.8%	4.12	4.08	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	76	0	80	337	95	32	10	0%	1.0	28.3%	9.4%	18.9%	2.9%	3.96	3.85	+0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	74	0	77	326	92	31	10	0%	1.0	28.2%	9.6%	18.6%	3.0%	3.94	3.93	+0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	ARI	70	0	74	312	87	30	10	0%	1.1	27.9%	9.8%	18.1%	3.1%	4.01	4.06	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	ARI	66	0	69	293	81	30	10	0%	1.1	27.6%	10.1%	17.5%	3.3%	4.15	4.24	+0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	ARI	33	0	35	148	33	18	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.5%	9.8%	2.8%	4.80	4.70	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	52	0	55	232	56	27	6	0%	1.1	24.0%	11.4%	12.6%	2.7%	4.54	4.39	+0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	63	0	66	279	70	30	7	0%	1.0	25.1%	10.8%	14.3%	2.7%	4.33	4.20	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	68	0	71	300	77	31	8	0%	1.0	25.7%	10.4%	15.3%	2.7%	4.18	4.08	+0.3
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	70	0	74	312	81	32	8	0%	1.1	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	2.6%	4.09	4.02	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	71	0	75	317	83	32	8	0%	1.1	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	2.6%	4.04	4.00	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	72	0	76	321	91	30	9	0%	1.1	28.3%	9.4%	18.9%	2.7%	3.87	3.76	+0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	70	0	73	308	87	29	9	0%	1.0	28.2%	9.6%	18.6%	2.8%	3.85	3.84	+0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	ARI	67	0	70	296	83	29	9	0%	1.0	27.9%	9.8%	18.1%	2.9%	3.92	3.97	+0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	ARI	63	0	66	279	77	28	9	0%	1.0	27.6%	10.1%	17.5%	3.1%	4.05	4.14	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		630	0	662	2794	738	287	77	0%	1.1	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	2.8%	4.12	3.69	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	223	87	23	0%	1.1	26.4%	10.3%	16.1%	2.8%	4.12	3.69	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		46	18	102	455	54	59	17	39%	2.2	11.8%	12.9%	-1.1%	3.8%	3.79	5.80	+3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	35	200	892	105	115	34	39%	2.2	11.8%	12.9%	-1.1%	3.8%	3.79	5.80	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Walvin Mena (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	20.6%	13.7%	3.0%	—	4.51	23.8%	12.3%	225	-0.61	—	—	—
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	85
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	85
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	84
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	84
William Kempner R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	22	SU	4.02	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.22	28.3%	14.7%	112	-0.80	3.17	173	83
Corey Black R 2015 · 4.19 FIP	23	SW	4.19	22.1%	13.9%	2.2%	.310	3.56	22.1%	6.0%	53	-0.63	3.56	139	83
Miguel Guerrero R 2021 · 5.00 FIP	21	SU	5.00	16.4%	12.9%	3.0%	.349	4.96	17.5%	5.4%	115	-0.04	4.56	171	83
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	83
Joel Ibarra R 2022 · 4.08 FIP	20	SW	4.08	21.4%	13.8%	1.9%	.323	4.74	19.6%	-3.4%	86	+0.66	4.08	155	82
Edgar Manzo R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	16.7%	12.3%	2.4%	.303	5.03	13.1%	3.3%	125	+0.44	4.46	249	82
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	81
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	81
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	80
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	80
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	80
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	80
Miguel Castro R 2015 · 4.61 FIP	20	SU	4.61	19.1%	10.9%	3.2%	.290	4.55	14.5%	4.9%	207	-0.06	3.34	554	80
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	79
Blake Quinn R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	23	SW	5.41	16.9%	15.3%	3.3%	.328	4.42	17.1%	3.3%	48	-0.99	4.42	122	79
Juan Burgos R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	19	SW	4.75	15.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.292	4.38	17.7%	0.8%	58	-0.37	3.50	282	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	76	25.7%	10.7%	1.13	4.32
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22