Miguel Castro
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 31
RHP
6'7" / 201 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.47
FIP4.51
K%20.8%
BB%8.6%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
SI (60%)
CH (11%)
SL (29%)
FB-0.5 (60%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 5 | 56 | 253 | 56 | 26 | 8 | 11% | 1.2 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2015 | 20 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 5 | 56 | 253 | 56 | 26 | 8 | 11% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 3.86 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 30 | 139 | 27 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 4.5% | 8.31 | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| 2016 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 30 | 139 | 27 | 12 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 5.8% | 8.31 | 5.94 | -0.5 |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 91 | 372 | 49 | 30 | 9 | 2% | 2.0 | 12.6% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 4.35 | +0.9 |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 1 | 91 | 372 | 49 | 30 | 9 | 2% | 2.0 | 13.2% | 8.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 3.77 | 4.30 | +1.0 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 63 | 1 | 86 | 376 | 57 | 43 | 9 | 2% | 1.4 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 3.96 | 4.49 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 63 | 1 | 86 | 376 | 57 | 43 | 9 | 2% | 1.4 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 3.96 | 4.63 | +0.5 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 65 | 0 | 73 | 319 | 71 | 38 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 65 | 0 | 73 | 319 | 71 | 38 | 10 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.66 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 26 | 0 | 25 | 115 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.0% | 11.3% | 21.7% | 3.5% | 4.01 | 3.66 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 26 | 0 | 25 | 115 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 33.0% | 11.3% | 21.7% | 3.5% | 4.01 | 3.71 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 69 | 2 | 70 | 303 | 77 | 43 | 7 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 3.45 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 69 | 2 | 70 | 303 | 77 | 43 | 7 | 3% | 1.0 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 11.2% | 2.3% | 3.45 | 4.04 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 34 | 153 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 23.7% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 1.4% | 4.01 | 3.33 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 40 | 0 | 34 | 153 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 0.8 | 24.8% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 1.3% | 4.01 | 3.22 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 75 | 0 | 65 | 268 | 60 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 3.82 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 75 | 0 | 65 | 268 | 60 | 22 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.87 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 2 | 20 | 85 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 13% | 1.3 | 12.5% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 4.5% | 4.12 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 15 | 2 | 20 | 85 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 13% | 1.3 | 17.6% | 5.9% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.12 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 26 | 107 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 3.51 | 4.22 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 0 | 26 | 107 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.4% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 3.51 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 37 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 176 | 32 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 5.16 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 37 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 3.6% | 4.88 | 5.04 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 32 | 18 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 3.9% | 5.16 | 5.34 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 556 | 4 | 604 | 2609 | 525 | 274 | 80 | 1% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 184 | 1 | 200 | 864 | 174 | 91 | 26 | 1% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 501 | 11 | 575 | 2490 | 494 | 262 | 68 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +7.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 4 | 200 | 866 | 172 | 91 | 24 | 2% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 2.7% | 4.21 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Castro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.51 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 3.1% | — | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 138 | +0.52 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 83 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 79 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.85 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.7% | .283 | 4.58 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.27 | 3.05 | 176 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 75 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 75 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 75 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 74 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.86 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.3% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 137 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.08 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .246 | 3.76 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.32 | 1.74 | 468 | 74 |
| Bryan Morris R 2025 · 3.60 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.60 | 16.0% | 9.6% | 1.2% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 102 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 73 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2029 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 73 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 73 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 73 |
| Logan Kensing R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 73 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 72 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.0% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 108 | 72 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 72 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.37 | 16.4% | 8.4% | 1.1% | .308 | 4.72 | 19.3% | 7.3% | 90 | +1.35 | 3.37 | 170 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 4.76 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |