Miguel Castro
P
Sugar Land Space Cowboys
+0.1
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'7" / 201 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.53
FIP4.47
xFIP6.86
SIERA6.22
K%21.7%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%12.9%
IP18
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL4545
CMD4545
K†5555
FB Velo
p5494.8
Whiff%
p1018.5%
K%
p1012.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.378
SI (60%)
CH (11%)
SL (29%)
FB-0.5 (60%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 45 | 5 | 56 | 253 | 56 | 26 | 8 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 3.86 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2016 | 21 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 35 | 0 | 30 | 139 | 27 | 12 | 8 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 8.31 | 5.71 | -0.3 |
| 2017 | 22 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 45 | 1 | 91 | 372 | 49 | 30 | 9 | 12.6% | 8.2% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 4.34 | +0.9 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 63 | 1 | 86 | 376 | 57 | 43 | 9 | 15.2% | 11.4% | 2.3% | 3.96 | 4.53 | +0.6 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 65 | 0 | 73 | 319 | 71 | 38 | 10 | 22.3% | 11.9% | 2.9% | 4.66 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | New York Mets | 26 | 0 | 25 | 115 | 38 | 13 | 4 | 33.0% | 11.3% | 3.5% | 4.01 | 3.64 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | New York Mets | 69 | 2 | 70 | 303 | 77 | 43 | 7 | 25.4% | 14.2% | 2.3% | 3.45 | 4.03 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | New York Yankees | 40 | 0 | 34 | 153 | 38 | 18 | 2 | 23.7% | 11.5% | 1.5% | 4.01 | 3.35 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 75 | 0 | 65 | 268 | 60 | 22 | 8 | 22.4% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 3.85 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 15 | 2 | 20 | 85 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 12.5% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.12 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 23 | 0 | 26 | 107 | 24 | 13 | 3 | 22.3% | 10.6% | 2.9% | 3.51 | 4.16 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | CWS | 18 | — | 18 | 75 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 4.45 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 501 | 11 | 575 | 2490 | 494 | 262 | 71 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.32 | +6.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 174 | 4 | 200 | 866 | 172 | 91 | 25 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.32 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Castro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.30 | 23.7% | 8.8% | 3.1% | — | 4.41 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 20 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2028 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 81 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.83 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .283 | 4.53 | 22.0% | 13.8% | 96 | -0.30 | 2.93 | 176 | 80 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 79 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.51 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .280 | 3.50 | 21.2% | 14.8% | 153 | -0.01 | 2.67 | 186 | 77 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.16 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.5% | .301 | 7.43 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.27 | 2.91 | 334 | 75 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 75 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 74 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 74 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.89 | 22.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .246 | 3.65 | 28.8% | 20.4% | 145 | -0.24 | 1.69 | 468 | 74 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 73 |
| Adrian Ramirez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.20 | 21.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 137 | 73 |
| Rubby De La Rosa R 2025 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 27.7% | 8.0% | 4.5% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 281 | 73 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2024 · 4.33 FIP | 29 | SU | 4.33 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 3.8% | .245 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 160 | 72 |
| Jon Edwards R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 71 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 71 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.09 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.8% | .278 | 3.53 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.56 | 2.31 | 403 | 71 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2025 · 3.31 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.31 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 1.1% | .333 | 3.78 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.31 | 244 | 71 |
| Matt Bush R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.65 | 24.2% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .321 | 4.65 | 17.6% | 4.6% | 23 | +1.00 | 2.88 | 249 | 70 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 70 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.