Miguel Castro — OGILVIE

Miguel Castro P Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 31 RHP 6'7" / 201 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.50

K%20.3%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5050

SI (60%)

CH (11%)

SL (29%)

FB-0.5 (60%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	20	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	5	56	253	56	26	8	11%	1.2	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	3.2%	3.86	4.61	-0.0
2015	20	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	5	56	253	56	26	8	11%	1.2	22.1%	10.3%	11.9%	3.2%	3.86	4.35	+0.1
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	30	139	27	12	8	0%	0.9	18.1%	8.9%	9.2%	5.2%	8.31	5.55	-0.4
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	30	139	27	12	8	0%	0.9	19.4%	8.6%	10.8%	5.8%	8.31	5.94	-0.5
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	91	372	49	30	9	2%	2.0	12.6%	8.2%	4.4%	2.3%	3.77	4.32	+0.2
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	91	372	49	30	9	2%	2.0	13.2%	8.1%	5.1%	2.4%	3.77	4.30	+0.3
2018	23	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	63	1	86	376	57	43	9	2%	1.4	15.2%	11.4%	3.7%	2.2%	3.96	4.45	+0.1
2018	23	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	63	1	86	376	57	43	9	2%	1.4	15.2%	11.4%	3.7%	2.4%	3.96	4.63	-0.1
2019	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	65	0	73	319	71	38	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.9%	10.3%	2.8%	4.66	4.28	+0.2
2019	24	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	65	0	73	319	71	38	10	0%	1.1	22.3%	11.9%	10.3%	3.1%	4.66	4.49	+0.1
2020	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	26	0	25	115	38	13	4	0%	0.9	33.0%	11.3%	21.7%	3.5%	4.01	3.66	+0.3
2020	25	MLB RAW	New York Mets	26	0	25	115	38	13	4	0%	0.9	33.0%	11.3%	21.7%	3.5%	4.01	3.71	+0.2
2021	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	69	2	70	303	77	43	7	3%	1.0	25.4%	14.2%	11.2%	2.3%	3.45	4.02	+0.4
2021	26	MLB RAW	New York Mets	69	2	70	303	77	43	7	3%	1.0	25.4%	14.2%	11.2%	2.3%	3.45	4.04	+0.4
2022	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	40	0	34	153	38	18	2	0%	0.8	23.7%	11.5%	12.2%	1.4%	4.01	3.34	+0.5
2022	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	40	0	34	153	38	18	2	0%	0.8	24.8%	11.8%	13.1%	1.3%	4.01	3.22	+0.5
2023	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	75	0	65	268	60	22	8	0%	0.9	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.2%	4.31	3.98	+0.4
2023	28	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	75	0	65	268	60	22	8	0%	0.9	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.2%	4.31	3.98	+0.4
2023	28	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	75	0	65	268	60	22	8	0%	0.9	22.4%	8.2%	14.2%	3.0%	4.31	3.87	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	2	20	85	15	5	3	13%	1.3	12.5%	4.7%	7.8%	5.0%	4.12	5.36	-0.2
2024	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	2	20	85	15	5	3	13%	1.3	12.5%	4.7%	7.8%	5.0%	4.12	5.36	-0.2
2024	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	2	20	85	15	5	3	13%	1.3	17.6%	5.9%	11.8%	3.5%	4.12	4.32	+0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	26	107	24	13	3	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.1%	11.9%	2.9%	3.51	4.07	+0.1
2025	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	0	26	107	24	13	3	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.1%	11.9%	2.9%	3.51	4.07	+0.1
2025	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	0	26	107	24	13	3	0%	1.1	22.4%	12.1%	10.3%	2.8%	3.51	4.27	+0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			425	4	467	2028	414	219	59	1%	1.1	20.4%	10.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.24	4.38	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	CWS	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	20.3%	8.1%	12.3%	3.1%	4.47	4.50	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CWS	48	0	50	211	41	18	7	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.64	4.76	-0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	CWS	44	0	46	194	36	17	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	3.7%	4.88	5.04	-0.3
2029	34	MLB MLE	CWS	40	0	42	176	31	17	7	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	4.0%	5.16	5.34	-0.4
2027	32	MLB CTX	CWS	48	0	50	211	41	18	7	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.5%	11.1%	3.4%	4.64	4.76	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	CWS	44	0	46	194	36	17	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	8.9%	9.8%	3.7%	4.88	5.04	-0.3
2029	34	MLB CTX	CWS	40	0	42	177	32	17	7	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.4%	8.4%	4.0%	5.16	5.34	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		556	4	604	2609	523	271	80	1%	1.1	20.0%	10.4%	9.7%	3.1%	4.39	4.41	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		184	1	200	864	173	90	26	1%	1.1	20.0%	10.4%	9.7%	3.1%	4.39	4.41	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		501	11	575	2490	493	261	70	2%	1.1	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.30	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	4	200	866	171	91	24	2%	1.1	19.8%	10.5%	9.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.30	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	20.3%	8.1%	3.1%	—	5.03	18.7%	9.8%	138	+0.53	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	82
Chris Hatcher R 2016 · 4.61 FIP	31	SU	4.61	23.8%	9.4%	4.2%	.283	4.69	22.0%	13.8%	96	+0.08	2.92	176	81
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	78
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	76
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	75
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	75
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	75
Bryan Morris R 2017 · 3.60 FIP	30	SU	3.60	16.0%	9.6%	1.1%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.48	102	74
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	74
Alexi Ogando R 2015 · 5.11 FIP	31	SU	5.11	19.1%	9.4%	4.4%	.253	3.95	17.2%	8.0%	67	-1.16	3.79	132	74
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	74
Junichi Tazawa R 2017 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	16.0%	7.6%	3.5%	.270	4.81	19.3%	9.7%	63	+0.16	2.94	227	74
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	73
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	73
Bo Schultz R 2016 · 3.90 FIP	30	SU	3.90	14.4%	5.2%	2.5%	.276	2.73	16.4%	8.4%	27	-1.17	2.73	141	73
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	73
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	31	SU	3.50	16.4%	8.4%	1.3%	.308	4.77	19.3%	7.3%	90	+1.27	3.50	170	73
Daniel Hudson R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.3%	8.6%	2.9%	.246	3.69	28.8%	20.4%	145	-0.22	1.68	468	73
Ryan Kelly R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.7%	7.2%	2.8%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	131	73
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	19.2%	8.7%	1.36	4.76
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47