Adrian Meza — OGILVIE

Adrian Meza2B FCL Blue Jays

Age 21 S/R 5'8" / 155 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 105 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .281 / .292

PA8

HR0

K%25

BB%7

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	217	175	48	5	0	0	31	19	10	13	5	274	412	303	715	29	306	9	14	342	118	+5	+1	—	—	+5	1.0
2024	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	38	35	6	1	0	0	3	9	0	0	0	171	237	200	437	29	231	24	8	208	27	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	128	106	19	2	0	0	15	20	7	3	2	179	320	198	518	19	221	16	12	262	64	-6	-0	—	—	+3	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	217	186	41	4	0	0	20	27	10	13	5	220	329	242	571	22	246	12	9	257	60	-10	+1	—	—	+5	-0.5
2024	19	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	38	36	5	1	0	0	2	12	0	0	0	139	184	167	351	28	221	32	5	170	1	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	128	112	15	1	0	0	9	29	7	3	2	134	242	143	385	9	185	23	7	189	14	-13	-0	—	—	+3	-1.1
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	217	186	41	4	0	0	20	27	10	13	5	220	329	242	571	22	256	12	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	217	175	48	5	0	0	31	19	10	13	5	274	412	303	715	29	306	9	14	342	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	166	148	21	2	0	0	11	41	7	3	2	142	235	155	390	14	196	25	7	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	166	141	25	3	0	0	18	29	7	3	2	177	301	199	500	21	223	17	11	250	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	217	185	41	4	0	0	20	27	10	13	5	222	329	243	572	22	246	12	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	166	147	21	2	0	0	11	41	7	3	2	143	235	156	391	14	193	25	7	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	217	185	41	4	0	0	20	27	10	13	5	222	329	243	572	22	246	12	9	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	166	147	21	2	0	0	11	41	7	3	2	143	235	156	391	14	193	25	7	185	11	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	21	MLB MLE	TOR	0%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	143	250	143	393		283	25	12	265	65	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	163	148	32	5	1	2	12	40	2	3	1	216	284	304	588	88	285	25	7	277	74	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	TOR	48%	287	260	59	10	2	5	21	70	4	5	1	227	295	338	633	112	287	24	7	286	80	-7	+1	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	376	339	78	13	2	8	28	91	6	6	2	230	300	351	651	121	288	24	7	292	84	-7	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2030	25	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	429	387	89	15	2	9	33	103	6	7	2	230	300	349	649	119	289	24	8	295	86	-7	+1	+0	+2	+9	0.4
2031	26	MLB MLE	TOR	56%	462	417	97	16	2	11	35	111	7	7	2	233	303	360	663	127	289	24	8	297	87	-7	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.5
2032	27	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	477	430	100	16	3	11	37	115	7	8	2	233	304	360	664	128	288	24	8	297	87	-7	+1	+0	+2	+10	0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	TOR	55%	482	434	99	16	2	11	38	117	7	7	2	228	301	350	651	122	288	24	8	296	87	-8	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	479	431	98	16	2	11	38	117	7	7	2	227	300	350	651	123	287	24	8	294	85	-8	+1	-1	+2	+10	0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	TOR	53%	472	425	96	16	2	10	37	117	7	6	2	226	299	344	642	118	286	25	8	292	83	-9	+0	-2	+2	+10	0.1
2036	31	MLB MLE	TOR	52%	461	415	93	15	2	10	36	115	7	5	1	224	297	342	639	118	283	25	8	287	81	-11	+1	-3	+2	+10	-0.1
2027	22	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	56	51	11	2	0	1	4	14	1	1	0	216	286	314	599	98	287	25	7	267	74	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	TOR	48%	139	126	29	5	1	3	10	34	2	2	1	230	297	357	654	127	288	24	7	276	80	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	198	178	41	7	1	4	15	48	3	3	1	230	301	348	649	118	290	24	8	282	84	-4	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	235	212	49	8	1	5	18	57	3	4	1	231	300	349	649	118	290	24	8	286	86	-4	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	TOR	56%	257	231	54	9	1	6	20	62	4	4	1	234	306	359	665	126	290	24	8	287	87	-4	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.3
2032	27	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	262	236	54	9	1	6	20	63	4	4	1	229	300	352	652	123	290	24	8	287	87	-4	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.3
2033	28	MLB CTX	TOR	55%	263	236	54	9	1	6	21	64	4	4	1	229	303	352	654	123	289	24	8	286	87	-4	+0	-0	+1	+6	0.3
2034	29	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	255	229	53	9	1	6	20	62	4	4	1	231	304	358	662	127	288	24	8	285	85	-4	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.2
2035	30	MLB CTX	TOR	53%	248	222	50	8	1	5	20	61	4	3	1	225	301	338	639	113	287	25	8	282	83	-5	+0	-1	+1	+5	0.0
2036	31	MLB CTX	TOR	52%	240	216	48	8	1	5	19	60	3	3	1	222	294	338	632	116	285	25	8	278	81	-6	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2153	1937	443	74	9	47	167	525	32	32	9	229	301	349	650	120	288	24	8	283	80	-40	+3	-4	+8	+47	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	133	22	3	14	50	158	10	10	3	227	299	347	646	120	286	24	8	283	80	-12	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	4479	4027	904	144	20	88	347	1066	77	77	24	224	298	336	634	111	282	24	8	287	80	-77	+5	-7	+15	+89	2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	132	21	3	13	50	155	11	11	3	226	299	339	638	113	284	24	8	287	80	-12	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#2Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#3Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.4	2,260	47	33	229	297	349	+8	+6	2.9	2.8
/162	664	14	10	+2.4	+1.8	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Meza (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	213/281/292	79	283	1	2	25%	7%	65	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→48	38→50	49→40	44	204/275/284	80	281	6	6	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/273/293	83	267	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Parker Meadows 2021 · A	21	39→47	41→55	46→55	42	195/250/286	91	268	9	9	30%	6%	51	-2.2	201/262/331	130	269	14	13	29%	7%	67	-1.1	222/289/387	165	276	18	21	26%	8%	87	+0.4
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	42→47	41→50	50	44	203/259/304	102	267	7	10	26%	7%	59	-1.7	221/283/344	123	281	11	10	24%	7%	77	-0.3	231/280/377	146	276	15	12	22%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Riley Unroe 2017 · A	21	41→48	36→45	46→55	43	195/257/255	61	273	4	12	29%	7%	47	-2.6	200/267/276	76	287	5	12	30%	8%	55	-1.9	221/306/334	113	298	11	26	27%	10%	81	-0.0
✕Jose Lobatón 2006 · A	21	45	39→45	50→30	46	213/275/298	85	283	5	8	26%	8%	63	-1.3	216/286/336	120	301	12	3	30%	9%	77	-0.3	233/317/359	126	296	11	0	23%	11%	91	+0.3
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2023 · A	21	43→44	39→55	49→50	43	209/262/300	92	280	6	8	27%	6%	59	-1.7	212/262/331	119	273	12	10	26%	6%	66	-1.1	228/287/392	163	266	21	11	23%	7%	87	+0.2
✕Max Moroff 2014 · A	21	42→52	40→45	43→50	47	204/271/293	89	271	8	8	27%	8%	61	-1.5	218/282/307	89	311	5	12	29%	8%	68	-1.0	228/307/343	115	304	11	10	27%	10%	84	+0.1
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→45	39→55	49→45	44	198/267/288	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	59	-1.7	212/274/363	151	314	18	7	36%	7%	79	-0.2	218/289/380	162	269	18	6	25%	8%	85	+0.2
●Maikel Garcia 2021 · A	21	43→53	36→50	51→60	42	203/261/270	67	295	3	13	31%	7%	51	-2.2	244/303/338	94	314	6	24	22%	8%	82	+0.0	261/321/393	132	295	10	24	15%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Niko Goodrum 2013 · A	21	40→50	39→55	52→55	42	193/256/287	94	283	5	7	32%	7%	53	-2.1	210/277/296	86	310	5	17	31%	8%	63	-1.3	240/314/421	180	324	18	16	30%	9%	104	+1.0
✕Miguel Gómez 2014 · A	21	44→54	39→50	49→40	39	209/259/304	95	294	6	5	30%	5%	59	-1.7	241/279/355	114	292	10	4	21%	4%	78	-0.3	271/289/403	131	306	13	1	16%	2%	89	+0.4
✕Blake Perkins 2018 · A	21	44→51	40→50	51→55	44	213/273/305	91	288	7	15	28%	7%	64	-1.3	202/271/287	85	292	7	17	31%	8%	59	-1.6	226/309/352	126	299	12	25	27%	10%	87	+0.3
✕Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	44→53	40→45	53→50	51	212/293/307	95	270	8	10	23%	10%	73	-0.6	225/299/349	124	276	11	8	21%	9%	84	+0.2	220/327/339	119	312	10	7	29%	13%	91	+0.5
✕Brayan Rocchio 2021 · A	20	48→53	38→45	48→50	43	226/277/308	82	281	5	13	21%	5%	66	-1.1	226/284/349	123	286	11	14	24%	6%	79	-0.2	222/294/342	121	256	12	16	18%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→45	51→45	39	201/262/293	92	296	7	7	33%	6%	57	-1.8	195/269/306	111	299	13	8	37%	7%	65	-1.2	180/257/292	111	259	15	7	35%	7%	55	-0.8
✕Shawn Zarraga 2010 · A	21	44	36→40	48→45	47	207/285/272	64	289	4	5	28%	8%	62	-1.4	235/300/323	88	304	6	8	23%	6%	79	-0.2	277/346/357	80	319	4	2	13%	7%	103	+0.5
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	41	195/245/269	75	266	5	9	28%	6%	45	-2.7	236/283/325	89	313	8	10	26%	6%	72	-0.7	247/301/337	90	312	4	24	21%	7%	79	-0.1
✕Jose Marquez 2019 · A	21	43	42→50	48→50	39	212/256/319	107	280	8	7	27%	5%	61	-1.5	211/260/312	101	308	9	8	33%	5%	61	-1.5	129/202/216	87	206	15	12	43%	7%	16	-0.8
✕Juan Brito 2022 · A	20	45→48	42→50	47→45	46	221/286/323	102	285	10	12	26%	8%	74	-0.6	228/311/363	135	276	12	9	21%	10%	93	+0.8	222/308/359	137	264	13	9	20%	10%	88	+0.4
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→49	39→45	48→50	50	203/280/297	94	266	5	9	24%	9%	65	-1.2	218/304/287	69	285	3	10	22%	11%	72	-0.7	244/312/343	100	289	8	16	17%	9%	85	+0.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps