Adrian Meza — OGILVIE

Adrian Meza2B FCL Blue Jays

Age 21 S/R 5'8" / 155 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 105 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .280 / .292

PA105

HR1

K%26

BB%7

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$2M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	217	186	39	3	0	0	20	27	10	13	5	210	319	226	545	16	244	12	9	255	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	217	175	48	5	0	0	31	19	10	13	5	274	412	303	715	29	306	9	14	342	120	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	2 teams	—	166	148	21	2	0	0	11	40	7	3	2	142	235	155	390	14	194	24	7	185	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	2 teams	—	166	141	25	3	0	0	18	29	7	3	2	177	301	199	500	21	223	17	11	250	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	TOR	—	105	95	20	3	1	1	7	27	2	2	0	211	279	295	574	84	284	26	7	264	60	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	TOR	34%	163	148	32	5	1	2	12	41	2	3	1	216	284	304	588	88	286	25	7	276	70	-6	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	TOR	48%	287	260	59	10	2	5	21	72	4	5	1	227	295	338	633	112	287	25	7	285	76	-8	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.2
2029	24	MLB	TOR	53%	376	339	78	13	2	8	28	93	6	6	2	230	300	351	651	121	289	25	7	291	81	-8	+0	+0	+1	+11	0.4
2030	25	MLB	TOR	55%	429	387	88	15	2	9	33	106	6	7	2	227	298	346	644	119	289	25	8	294	83	-8	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.6
2031	26	MLB	TOR	56%	462	417	96	16	2	11	35	114	7	7	2	230	301	357	658	127	289	25	8	296	85	-8	+1	+0	+2	+13	0.8
2032	27	MLB	TOR	55%	477	430	98	16	2	11	37	118	7	8	2	228	300	351	651	123	289	25	8	296	85	-8	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.8
2027	22	MLB	TOR	34%	56	51	11	2	0	1	4	14	1	1	0	216	286	314	599	98	287	25	7	266	62	-2	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
2028	23	MLB	TOR	48%	139	126	29	5	1	3	10	35	2	2	1	230	297	357	654	127	289	25	7	275	69	-5	+0	+0	+0	+4	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	TOR	53%	198	178	41	7	1	4	15	49	3	3	1	230	301	348	649	118	290	25	8	281	73	-6	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2030	25	MLB	TOR	55%	235	212	48	8	1	5	18	58	3	4	1	226	296	344	640	118	291	25	8	285	76	-6	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2031	26	MLB	TOR	56%	257	231	53	9	1	6	20	63	4	4	1	229	302	355	657	126	291	25	8	286	77	-7	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2032	27	MLB	TOR	55%	262	236	54	9	1	6	20	65	4	4	1	229	300	352	652	123	290	25	8	286	77	-7	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1147	1034	236	40	5	25	87	284	17	18	5	228	299	349	648	121	289	25	8	283	75	-33	+2	+0	+4	+32	0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	134	23	3	14	49	161	10	10	3	229	299	350	649	121	290	25	8	283	75	-19	+1	+0	+2	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	2682	2410	531	83	12	47	204	638	51	54	17	220	295	323	618	103	279	24	8	281	73	-81	+4	+0	+10	+76	0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	128	20	3	11	49	155	12	13	4	219	293	320	613	101	278	24	8	281	73	-20	+1	+0	+2	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	217	175	48	5	31	19	10	13	5	274	412	303	715	29	306	9	14	342	120	+5	+1	—	—	+6	1.2
2024	19	A	Dunedin Blue Jays	—	38	35	6	1	3	9	0	0	0	171	237	200	437	29	231	24	8	208	17	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2024	19	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	128	106	19	2	15	20	7	3	2	179	320	198	518	19	221	16	12	262	59	-6	-0	—	—	+4	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#4Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	6	1,763	16	10	248	297	342	+5	+12	2.4	2.4
#4Einar Díazlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,763 PA	/162	664	6	4	248	297	342	+1.9	+4.7	0.9	pk7: 2
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,253	26	20	228	296	347	+4	+4	1.4	1.5
	/162	664	14	11	228	296	347	+2.4	+2.1	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Meza (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	211/280/292	80	284	1	2	26%	7%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Riley Unroe 2017 · A	21	39→48	36→50	46→55	42	189/249/245	56	269	4	12	30%	7%	33	-2.9	195/262/273	78	283	6	12	31%	8%	46	-2.0	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
✕Angel Martínez 2022 · A	20	41→47	41→50	49→50	44	202/257/305	102	265	8	10	26%	7%	53	-1.5	223/285/351	128	285	12	10	25%	7%	77	+0.1	226/291/358	132	282	13	10	24%	7%	79	+0.2
●Max Moroff 2014 · A	21	41→51	40→50	43→50	46	199/263/286	87	265	8	8	27%	8%	51	-1.7	217/278/309	92	311	6	12	29%	8%	63	-0.9	235/313/371	135	309	14	10	27%	10%	91	+0.9
✕Addison Barger 2021 · A	21	41→45	39→55	49→45	44	198/267/288	90	270	6	5	28%	7%	53	-1.5	217/280/375	158	316	19	7	36%	7%	82	+0.5	220/290/392	172	269	20	6	26%	8%	86	+0.6
✕Blake Perkins 2018 · A	21	44→51	40→50	51→55	43	214/270/306	92	286	8	15	27%	7%	59	-1.1	203/268/295	92	290	8	17	31%	8%	56	-1.3	230/313/367	137	305	14	25	27%	10%	91	+0.7
✕Jose Lobatón 2006 · A	21	45	39→50	50→30	46	213/275/298	85	283	5	8	26%	8%	59	-1.1	215/286/338	123	301	12	3	30%	9%	74	-0.1	237/323/373	135	298	13	0	23%	11%	96	+0.7
✕Jonah Heim 2016 · A	21	42→50	37→55	49→40	41	203/240/282	80	255	4	5	22%	4%	39	-2.5	197/245/285	88	256	8	3	25%	6%	43	-2.2	227/289/395	168	253	21	3	19%	8%	88	+0.6
✕Jose Marquez 2019 · A	21	43	42→50	48→50	39	212/256/319	107	280	8	7	27%	5%	56	-1.3	211/260/311	100	309	9	8	33%	5%	56	-1.3	125/197/206	81	204	13	12	44%	7%	1	-0.9
✕Jon Del Campo 2009 · A	21	46	39→45	49→55	41	213/270/300	87	319	5	6	33%	7%	56	-1.3	202/236/283	81	269	5	7	26%	4%	37	-2.7	259/294/370	111	330	12	18	24%	4%	85	+0.4
✕Wenceel Pérez 2021 · A	21	44→48	39→55	49→55	46	212/261/300	88	263	5	12	21%	6%	53	-1.5	227/283/357	130	287	11	17	24%	7%	77	+0.1	234/296/395	161	281	15	19	22%	7%	91	+0.9
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
●Niko Goodrum 2013 · A	21	40→50	39→55	52→55	42	193/256/287	94	283	5	7	32%	7%	47	-1.9	211/276/296	85	315	4	17	32%	8%	58	-1.2	246/319/432	187	331	19	16	30%	9%	109	+1.5
✕Rosell Herrera 2013 · A	20	40→50	37→45	48→55	40	193/243/266	73	268	5	9	29%	6%	37	-2.7	229/276/310	81	309	7	10	26%	6%	62	-0.9	247/301/337	90	315	4	24	22%	7%	76	+0.1
●Colin Walsh 2011 · A	21	45→54	40→45	53→50	52	214/297/310	95	272	8	10	23%	10%	72	-0.2	225/295/354	129	272	12	8	21%	8%	82	+0.5	238/307/358	119	303	12	6	24%	8%	85	+0.5
✕Domingo Leyba 2017 · AA	21	46→50	38→50	46→45	42	221/260/303	82	271	6	7	21%	5%	53	-1.5	227/274/333	106	273	9	6	20%	6%	67	-0.5	230/290/372	142	257	18	6	18%	7%	83	+0.3
✕Angelo Mora 2014 · A	21	41→50	37→45	48→45	40	199/240/271	72	263	5	13	26%	5%	36	-2.7	224/266/310	86	302	4	6	26%	5%	57	-1.2	245/279/344	99	321	5	4	24%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Ronny Simon 2021 · A	21	46→54	41→50	52→55	46	218/278/329	112	273	6	13	22%	7%	68	-0.5	210/261/359	149	274	18	19	29%	6%	69	-0.4	261/322/377	116	323	10	29	21%	7%	95	+1.0
●Miguel Gómez 2014 · A	21	44→54	39→50	49→40	39	209/259/304	95	294	6	5	30%	5%	53	-1.5	241/279/359	118	291	11	4	21%	4%	76	+0.0	276/293/423	147	309	16	1	16%	2%	95	+1.0
✕Josh Johnson 2006 · A	20	43→49	39→45	48→50	50	203/280/297	94	266	5	9	24%	9%	61	-1.0	218/304/287	69	285	3	10	22%	11%	69	-0.4	249/317/359	110	296	9	16	18%	9%	89	+0.6
✕Marcus Littlewood 2013 · A	21	40	40→45	48→45	41	198/248/289	92	267	8	7	29%	6%	44	-2.1	199/266/305	106	272	10	5	28%	8%	57	-1.2	209/274/322	113	270	10	4	25%	8%	62	-0.4