Jesus Fernandez
SS ACL Athletics| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKOAK | 91 | .253/.303/.277 | 0 | 4 | 22 | — | .188/.225/.200 |
| 2025 | 19 | A/ROKOAK | 126 | .179/.232/.205 | 0 | 4 | 1 | — | .168/.208/.193 |
| 2026 | 20 | ROKOAK | 159 | .273/.404/.328 | 0 | 10 | 58 | — | .212/.308/.248 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBOAK | 269 | .235/.294/.321 | 3 | 5 | 75 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBOAK | 51 | .245/.305/.346 | 1 | 1 | 79 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBOAK | 111 | .248/.308/.356 | 2 | 2 | 83 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 69 / POW 33
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 229 | 207 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 300 | 361 | 353 | 714 | 53 | 320 | 6 | 7 | 325 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 91 | 83 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 303 | 277 | 580 | 24 | 259 | 4 | 7 | 263 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 77 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 181 | 224 | 208 | 432 | 28 | 213 | 14 | 4 | 199 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 49 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 178 | 245 | 200 | 445 | 22 | 186 | 4 | 8 | 212 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 128 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 273 | 404 | 328 | 732 | 55 | 310 | 9 | 14 | 340 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 229 | 211 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 204 | 260 | 237 | 497 | 33 | 215 | 7 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 91 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 188 | 225 | 200 | 425 | 12 | 201 | 7 | 4 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 77 | 73 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 178 | 211 | 205 | 416 | 27 | 212 | 19 | 3 | 178 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 49 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 152 | 204 | 174 | 378 | 22 | 146 | 6 | 6 | 155 | -9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 137 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 212 | 308 | 248 | 556 | 36 | 248 | 14 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 229 | 211 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 204 | 260 | 237 | 497 | 33 | 221 | 7 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 229 | 207 | 62 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 300 | 361 | 353 | 714 | 53 | 320 | 6 | 7 | 325 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 91 | 85 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 188 | 225 | 200 | 425 | 12 | 198 | 7 | 4 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 91 | 83 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 253 | 303 | 277 | 580 | 24 | 259 | 4 | 7 | 263 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 126 | 119 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 160 | 200 | 185 | 385 | 25 | 188 | 14 | 4 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 126 | 117 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 179 | 232 | 205 | 437 | 26 | 202 | 10 | 6 | 204 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 137 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 212 | 308 | 248 | 556 | 36 | 252 | 14 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 128 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 273 | 404 | 328 | 732 | 55 | 310 | 9 | 14 | 340 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 229 | 211 | 43 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 204 | 260 | 237 | 497 | 33 | 215 | 7 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 91 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 184 | 225 | 195 | 420 | 11 | 201 | 7 | 4 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 126 | 119 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 160 | 200 | 185 | 385 | 25 | 186 | 14 | 4 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 139 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 209 | 308 | 245 | 552 | 36 | 248 | 14 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 91 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 184 | 225 | 195 | 420 | 11 | 201 | 7 | 4 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 126 | 119 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 160 | 200 | 185 | 385 | 25 | 186 | 14 | 4 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 159 | 139 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 22 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 209 | 308 | 245 | 552 | 36 | 248 | 14 | 9 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | OAK | 0% | 269 | 246 | 58 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 59 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 235 | 294 | 321 | 615 | 86 | 296 | 22 | 7 | 278 | 75 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | OAK | 34% | 147 | 134 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 299 | 334 | 633 | 96 | 297 | 22 | 7 | 286 | 79 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | OAK | 48% | 230 | 210 | 50 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 50 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 241 | 302 | 344 | 646 | 104 | 297 | 22 | 7 | 291 | 83 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | OAK | 53% | 312 | 284 | 69 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 67 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 243 | 305 | 352 | 657 | 109 | 298 | 21 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +7 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | OAK | 55% | 363 | 330 | 80 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 78 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 243 | 306 | 357 | 663 | 114 | 298 | 21 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | OAK | 56% | 392 | 357 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 28 | 85 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 244 | 307 | 360 | 667 | 117 | 297 | 22 | 7 | 299 | 89 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | OAK | 55% | 404 | 368 | 89 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 88 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 243 | 306 | 358 | 664 | 115 | 297 | 22 | 7 | 298 | 88 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | OAK | 55% | 406 | 370 | 89 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 89 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 241 | 304 | 353 | 658 | 112 | 297 | 22 | 7 | 295 | 86 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 0.7 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | OAK | 53% | 398 | 362 | 87 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 89 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 239 | 302 | 348 | 649 | 109 | 296 | 22 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +9 | 0.5 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | OAK | 53% | 388 | 353 | 84 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 88 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 236 | 298 | 340 | 639 | 104 | 295 | 23 | 7 | 288 | 81 | -9 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | 0.2 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB MLE | OAK | 52% | 374 | 342 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 86 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 233 | 294 | 331 | 625 | 99 | 292 | 23 | 7 | 282 | 77 | -10 | -0 | -3 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | OAK | 34% | 51 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 245 | 305 | 346 | 651 | 101 | 306 | 22 | 6 | 293 | 79 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | OAK | 48% | 111 | 101 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 248 | 308 | 356 | 664 | 108 | 307 | 22 | 7 | 298 | 83 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | OAK | 53% | 165 | 150 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 311 | 364 | 674 | 114 | 308 | 22 | 7 | 302 | 86 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | OAK | 55% | 199 | 181 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 43 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 250 | 312 | 368 | 681 | 118 | 307 | 22 | 7 | 305 | 88 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | OAK | 56% | 218 | 198 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 47 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 250 | 313 | 371 | 684 | 121 | 307 | 22 | 7 | 306 | 89 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | OAK | 55% | 222 | 202 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 48 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 249 | 312 | 369 | 681 | 120 | 307 | 22 | 7 | 305 | 88 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +5 | 0.5 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | OAK | 55% | 222 | 202 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 49 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 248 | 310 | 365 | 675 | 117 | 306 | 22 | 7 | 302 | 86 | -4 | +0 | -0 | +2 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | OAK | 53% | 212 | 193 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 47 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 246 | 308 | 359 | 666 | 113 | 305 | 22 | 7 | 299 | 84 | -4 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | OAK | 53% | 204 | 185 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 46 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 243 | 304 | 351 | 656 | 108 | 304 | 23 | 7 | 295 | 81 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | 0.1 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB CTX | OAK | 52% | 195 | 177 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 45 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 239 | 300 | 342 | 642 | 103 | 301 | 23 | 7 | 289 | 77 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1799 | 1636 | 405 | 79 | 9 | 30 | 129 | 396 | 18 | 35 | 9 | 248 | 310 | 362 | 671 | 114 | 308 | 22 | 7 | 300 | 76 | -33 | +3 | -4 | +19 | +39 | 2.5 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 591 | 147 | 29 | 3 | 11 | 47 | 143 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 249 | 312 | 364 | 676 | 115 | 309 | 22 | 7 | 300 | 76 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4112 | 3748 | 874 | 150 | 20 | 56 | 283 | 836 | 46 | 95 | 29 | 233 | 295 | 329 | 624 | 96 | 284 | 20 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -66 | +6 | -7 | +38 | +76 | 4.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 592 | 138 | 24 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 132 | 7 | 15 | 5 | 233 | 295 | 329 | 624 | 96 | 284 | 20 | 7 | 281 | 76 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKACL Athletics · 159 PAwOBA .332 → .254 (−78)K% 9.4% → 13.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.43% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 8.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.14% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 2.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.004 | ×0.995 | 20.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.19% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.004 | ×0.995 | 4.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.004 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .332 → .254; ISO .055 → .042; BABIP .310 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AStockton Ports · 77 PAwOBA .194 → .178 (−16)K% 14.3% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.29% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.90% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 2.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.03% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 18.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.28% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 3.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .194 → .178; ISO .028 → .025; BABIP .213 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Athletics · 49 PAwOBA .207 → .155 (−52)K% 4.1% → 6.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.08% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 5.98% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.28% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | ×0.997 | ×1.008 | 12.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.33% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | ×0.997 | ×1.008 | 1.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | ×0.997 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 104, 3B 98, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.
Result: wOBA .207 → .155; ISO .022 → .016; BABIP .186 → .146. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Athletics · 91 PAwOBA .262 → .201 (−61)K% 4.4% → 6.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 4.40% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 6.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.59% | ÷0.986 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.05% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | ×0.968 | ×1.022 | 19.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.53% | ÷1.124 | ×0.720 | ×0.968 | ×1.022 | 1.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.907 | ×0.720 | ×0.968 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.852 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 125, 3B 81, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .262 → .201; ISO .024 → .016; BABIP .259 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Athletics · 229 PAwOBA .318 → .218 (−100)K% 6.1% → 7.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 6.11% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 7.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.55% | ÷1.030 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 4.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.18% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 1.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.94% | ÷1.031 | ×0.680 | ×1.028 | ×1.022 | 18.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.66% | ÷1.138 | ×0.600 | ×1.028 | ×1.022 | 2.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.028 | ×1.022 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.039 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 100, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .318 → .218; ISO .053 → .031; BABIP .320 → .215. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).