Wilfred Alvarado

P Stockton Ports

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 190 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	14	22	7.48	5.41	15.2%	13.4%	—	K 10.5% · BB 17.9% · FIP 4.47
2025	19	MIX2 levels	33	55	3.29	2.92	26.2%	10.5%	—	K 18.7% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.93
2026	20	MIX2 levels	35	44	4.95	4.43	23.1%	16.3%	—	K 16.4% · BB 19.7% · FIP 5.63
2027PROJ	21	MLBOAK	34	36	6.10	6.10	15.3%	18.4%	-0.6
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBOAK	24	25	5.71	5.58	17.3%	15.8%	-0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBOAK	37	39	5.39	5.25	18.5%	14.2%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control35Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBernard Jose (age 21) · Noah Takacs (age 22) · Andrew Moore (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.10

FIP6.10

K%15.3%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%-3.1%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	16	0	22	97	25	11	0	0%	1.4	17.5%	14.2%	3.4%	0.0%	5.32	3.42	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	16	0	22	97	25	11	0	0%	1.4	25.8%	11.3%	14.4%	0.0%	5.32	2.33	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	22	112	17	15	3	0%	1.5	10.5%	17.9%	-7.3%	0.0%	7.48	4.47	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	22	112	17	15	3	0%	1.5	10.5%	17.9%	-7.3%	0.0%	7.48	4.47	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	22	112	17	15	3	0%	1.5	15.2%	13.4%	1.8%	2.7%	7.48	5.41	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	55	237	62	25	3	0%	1.7	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	1.5%	3.29	3.93	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	55	237	62	25	3	0%	1.7	18.7%	12.6%	6.1%	1.5%	3.29	3.93	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	55	237	62	25	3	0%	1.7	26.2%	10.5%	15.6%	1.3%	3.29	2.92	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	44	208	48	34	4	0%	1.2	16.4%	19.7%	-3.3%	2.6%	4.95	5.63	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	44	208	48	34	4	0%	1.2	16.4%	19.7%	-3.3%	2.6%	4.95	5.63	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	44	208	48	34	4	0%	1.2	23.1%	16.3%	6.7%	1.9%	4.95	4.43	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	OAK	34	0	36	152	23	28	4	0%	1.1	15.3%	18.4%	-3.1%	2.9%	6.10	6.10	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	OAK	49	0	52	218	38	35	6	0%	1.1	17.3%	15.8%	1.5%	2.8%	5.71	5.58	-0.6
2029	23	MLB MLE	OAK	51	0	54	226	42	32	6	0%	1.1	18.5%	14.2%	4.3%	2.8%	5.39	5.25	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	OAK	24	0	25	106	18	17	3	0%	1.0	17.3%	15.8%	1.5%	2.8%	5.71	5.58	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	OAK	37	0	39	165	31	23	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	14.2%	4.3%	2.8%	5.39	5.25	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	272	49	40	8	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.9%	3.2%	2.8%	5.52	5.00	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	152	124	25	0%	1.1	18.1%	14.9%	3.2%	2.8%	5.52	5.00	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		98	0	142	654	107	105	9	0%	1.4	16.4%	16.0%	0.4%	1.4%	4.75	4.49	-1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		138	0	200	921	151	147	13	0%	1.4	16.4%	16.0%	0.4%	1.4%	4.75	4.49	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wilfred Alvarado (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.10	15.3%	18.4%	2.9%	—	5.41	17.9%	2.9%	105	-0.69	—	—	—
Bernard Jose R 2024 · 6.14 FIP	21	SU	6.14	14.4%	19.0%	3.4%	.309	4.95	18.5%	6.4%	134	-1.19	4.44	222	92
Noah Takacs R 2024 · 5.77 FIP	22	SU	5.77	12.5%	16.4%	3.0%	.301	5.68	13.4%	-2.3%	91	-0.09	5.25	130	90
Andrew Moore R 2021 · 6.58 FIP	21	SU	6.58	12.9%	21.8%	3.3%	.263	3.75	26.5%	8.4%	103	-2.83	3.44	207	90
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	90
Derrick Turnbow R 2000 · 6.58 FIP	22	SU	6.58	13.8%	19.9%	3.9%	.257	1.43	28.3%	22.6%	15	-5.15	1.43	245	88
Chay Yeager R 2024 · 5.60 FIP	21	SU	5.60	13.1%	15.7%	2.9%	.261	4.20	22.8%	12.5%	56	-1.40	4.20	110	88
Cole Ayers R 2022 · 5.58 FIP	22	SU	5.58	13.0%	15.4%	2.9%	.305	4.01	21.2%	10.1%	152	-1.57	3.58	171	88
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	87
Bryce McGowan R 2022 · 5.90 FIP	22	SU	5.90	17.0%	22.9%	2.4%	.368	4.36	20.6%	6.6%	145	-1.54	3.71	178	87
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	87
Jesse Stallings R 2016 · 6.02 FIP	21	SU	6.02	13.2%	15.0%	3.9%	.296	4.10	11.6%	5.0%	128	-1.92	3.48	151	86
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	86
Omar Ventura R 2018 · 5.82 FIP	21	SU	5.82	15.8%	21.6%	2.4%	.254	3.53	19.5%	3.1%	30	-2.29	3.53	125	86
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	86
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	85
Franklyn German R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.313	5.27	13.1%	0.1%	86	+0.10	3.37	152	85
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	84
Antoni Cuello R 2024 · 5.98 FIP	21	SU	5.98	12.3%	16.9%	3.2%	.318	6.66	16.6%	-2.1%	52	+0.68	4.40	116	84
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	47	17.3%	15.9%	1.09	5.69
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*