Carlos Castillo

P Greensboro Grasshoppers

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.1 · 2031

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #845MiLBFA 2038

ETA2028FG ETA2032MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	MIX2 levels	18	10	49	4.81	3.88	19.3%	10.8%	—	K 13.5% · BB 13.3% · FIP 5.00
2025	19	MIX2 levels	24	20	95	3.79	3.09	19.4%	8.4%	—	K 14.1% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.97
2026	20	MIX2 levels	11	9	29	6.14	6.27	18.1%	15.4%	—	K 15.0% · BB 17.4% · FIP 7.00
2027PROJ	21	MLBPIT	7	7	36	5.90	5.90	12.9%	14.3%	-0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBPIT	9	9	44	5.44	5.32	15.5%	12.7%	-0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBPIT	13	13	68	5.16	5.04	17.1%	11.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control45Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 90%

CompsDanny Flatt (age 20) · Luis Hernandez (age 21) · Edelvis Perez (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145137vR 129

ERA5.90

FIP5.90

K%12.9%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%-1.4%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Gold	11	11	37	144	40	15	0	100%	3.4	18.9%	13.0%	5.9%	0.0%	1.70	3.15	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Gold	11	11	37	144	40	15	0	100%	3.4	27.8%	10.4%	17.4%	0.0%	1.70	2.15	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	49	223	43	24	4	56%	2.7	13.5%	13.3%	0.3%	2.5%	4.81	5.00	—
2024	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	10	49	223	43	24	4	56%	2.7	13.5%	13.3%	0.3%	2.5%	4.81	5.00	—
2024	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	10	49	223	43	24	4	56%	2.7	19.3%	10.8%	8.5%	1.8%	4.81	3.88	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	95	391	76	33	4	83%	4.0	14.1%	10.1%	4.1%	1.4%	3.79	3.97	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	20	95	391	76	33	4	83%	4.0	14.1%	10.1%	4.1%	1.4%	3.79	3.97	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	20	95	391	76	33	4	83%	4.0	19.4%	8.4%	11.0%	1.0%	3.79	3.09	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	29	149	27	23	6	82%	2.7	15.0%	17.4%	-2.4%	5.4%	6.14	7.00	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	29	149	27	23	6	82%	2.7	15.0%	17.4%	-2.4%	5.4%	6.14	7.00	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	29	149	27	23	6	82%	2.7	18.1%	15.4%	2.7%	4.0%	6.14	6.27	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	PIT	7	7	36	152	20	22	5	100%	5.1	12.9%	14.3%	-1.4%	3.1%	5.90	5.90	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	PIT	18	18	90	379	59	48	11	100%	5.0	15.5%	12.7%	2.7%	3.0%	5.56	5.44	-0.5
2029	23	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	93	394	67	46	12	100%	5.5	17.1%	11.8%	5.3%	3.0%	5.28	5.16	-0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	96	403	72	45	12	100%	5.6	18.0%	11.2%	6.8%	2.9%	5.09	4.99	-0.1
2031	25	MLB MLE	PIT	17	17	97	408	75	45	12	100%	5.7	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	2.9%	4.98	4.91	-0.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	97	408	76	44	12	100%	6.0	18.7%	10.9%	7.8%	2.9%	4.92	4.89	+0.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	PIT	16	16	95	402	75	44	12	100%	6.0	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	3.0%	4.92	4.93	-0.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	92	390	72	43	12	100%	6.2	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	3.1%	4.97	5.01	-0.1
2035	29	MLB MLE	PIT	15	15	88	372	68	42	12	100%	5.9	18.3%	11.3%	7.0%	3.2%	5.07	5.14	-0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	PIT	14	14	83	350	63	41	12	100%	5.9	17.9%	11.6%	6.3%	3.4%	5.22	5.32	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	PIT	9	9	44	186	29	24	5	100%	4.9	15.5%	12.7%	2.7%	2.8%	5.44	5.32	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	68	287	49	34	8	100%	5.2	17.1%	11.8%	5.3%	2.8%	5.16	5.04	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	79	334	60	37	9	100%	5.6	18.0%	11.2%	6.8%	2.7%	4.97	4.87	-0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	85	359	66	39	10	100%	5.7	18.5%	10.9%	7.6%	2.7%	4.86	4.79	-0.0
2032	26	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	88	372	69	40	10	100%	5.9	18.7%	10.9%	7.8%	2.7%	4.80	4.77	+0.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	PIT	15	15	88	372	69	41	10	100%	5.9	18.6%	10.9%	7.7%	2.8%	4.80	4.81	-0.0
2034	28	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	86	363	67	40	10	100%	6.1	18.5%	11.1%	7.4%	2.8%	4.84	4.88	-0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	PIT	14	14	84	355	65	40	11	100%	6.0	18.3%	11.3%	7.0%	3.0%	4.94	5.01	-0.2
2036	30	MLB CTX	PIT	13	13	79	334	60	39	11	100%	6.1	17.9%	11.6%	6.3%	3.2%	5.08	5.18	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		121	121	702	2966	536	335	84	100%	5.8	18.1%	11.3%	6.8%	2.8%	4.95	4.56	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	153	95	24	100%	5.8	18.1%	11.3%	6.8%	2.8%	4.95	4.56	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		64	50	210	907	135	114	19	78%	3.3	14.9%	12.5%	2.4%	2.1%	3.99	4.59	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	48	200	864	129	108	18	78%	3.3	14.9%	12.5%	2.4%	2.1%	3.99	4.59	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Castillo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.90	12.9%	14.3%	3.1%	—	5.19	16.9%	5.0%	278	-0.71	—	—	—
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	87
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	85
Edelvis Perez R 2024 · 5.19 FIP	19	SP	5.19	11.9%	13.8%	2.4%	.267	5.56	17.9%	-1.9%	62	+0.37	5.19	103	85
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	84
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	83
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	83
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	83
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	83
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	82
Donal Montas R 2023 · 5.66 FIP	21	SP	5.66	8.4%	13.3%	2.9%	.268	4.87	10.2%	-4.0%	78	-0.79	4.10	156	81
Adam Bates R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP-	5.12	16.2%	14.1%	2.9%	.358	6.39	13.0%	-7.2%	146	+1.27	5.12	183	81
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	80
Luis Ghisays R 2024 · 5.74 FIP	18	SP	5.74	13.8%	15.0%	3.5%	.291	5.08	16.2%	5.4%	75	-0.66	4.58	110	80
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	80
Bryce Warrecker R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	22	SP	5.43	11.3%	11.7%	3.3%	.271	3.82	20.1%	9.6%	91	-1.61	2.47	154	79
Jean Marcelino R 2021 · 5.24 FIP	21	SP-	5.24	15.4%	13.4%	3.2%	.377	6.68	11.8%	-24.4%	12	+1.44	3.68	102	79
Tom Robson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	22	SP	4.89	12.6%	13.4%	2.1%	.337	4.89	12.5%	-1.3%	105	-0.00	3.23	132	79
Chad Bryant R 2021 · 6.29 FIP	21	SP-	6.29	14.8%	20.7%	3.3%	.337	5.59	16.0%	-3.4%	81	-0.70	3.93	136	79
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	87	17.7%	11.5%	1.18	5.14
Paul Abbott ('04)	3.6	80	15.6%	12.3%	1.26	4.92
Jesse Jefferson ('73-'81, -1 WAR*)	5.4	121	17.2%*	10.7%*	1.32*	5.13*
Juan Eichelberger ('78-'88, 0 WAR*)	3.0	101	15.8%*	11.2%*	1.20*	4.83*
Pete Broberg ('71-'78, -4 WAR*)	4.8	120	18.6%*	10.9%*	1.18*	5.49*
Tony Armas ('08)	4.6	116	16.8%	10.6%	1.19	4.65
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14